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HVK Archives: In for a summer of surprises

In for a summer of surprises - The Economics Times

T V R Shenoy ()
15 January 1997

Title : In for a summer of surprises
Author : T V R Shenoy
Publication : The Economics Times
Date : January 15, 1997

Makar Sankranti is just over, and the embers of the Lori bonfires
are still flickering on charred lawns across Delhi. Hopeful
Congressmen insist that they are actually the pyres of the United
Front ministry. With the turn of the solstice the Congress's
winter of discontent too, they feel, is over.

As I explained last week, the numbers don't add up. Nevertheless,
Congress prophets are right when they predict an eventful time
ahead. Here, as far as I can tell, is the almanac.

For reasons of convenience, I have divided the Congress predictions
into three sections. You can read them, if you will, as a modern
Ritusamhara (if only in three seasons, not six.) And in fact the
plans do divide themselves neatly into Spring, Summer, and Fall ( I
prefer the Americanism to an English Autumn).

First, Spring. Rajasthan and Bihar may hog the headlines, but
serious politicians will be looking elsewhere Punjab, Gujarat, and
Uttar Pradesh.

Punjab is currently one of those rare states which enjoys the
well-disguised blessings of a Congress government. But the party
is all set to prove the dictum that "a house divided cannot stand".

Do you recall the well-justified outrage as a 'Khajuria' minister,
Atmaram Patel, was stripped by irate BJP workers in Gujarat? I
remember the incident was cited to mock the "BJP culture" in the
Lok Sabha itself.

Well, the Congress has gone one better. O P Soni, the former mayor
of Amritsar, assaulted R L Bhatia, a former minister of state for
external affairs after an argument over tickets. In the Congress,
it is not humble workers but leaders who take the law into their
own hands. No wonder chief minister Bhattal protested that the law
and order situation did not warrant holding polls so soon!

Other, more senior, Congressmen too have reason to be concerned.
The Punjab polls will be the first test of Sitaram Kesri's
vote-winning ability an untested talent for the last 30 years.

Punjab will, of course, also be a testing ground for other parties.
Will the BJP-Akali Dal alliance succeed in making its case to the
voter? Can the BSP hold on to its niche? (No less than Kanshi Ram
himself is an MP from Punjab after losing his bid in Uttar
Pradesh.)

One factor that may disturb voters is the indiscipline in the BJP
Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and, the mother of them all, Gujarat.
Speaking of which, what is Shankersinh Vaghela up to?

Unlike Punjab, the Gujarat assembly has some time to go before its
term expires. But Vaghela himself must face the electorate. By law
he must become a legislator before April 23, 1997.

Unlike Sitaram Kesri, Vaghela is no stranger to the electoral
process. But he has not been very successful of late...

Vaghela's last victory was in the general election of 1991, when he
was. still a BJP candidate. The Khajuraho episode cost him his
seat in the general election of 1996. And in the Gandhinagar by
election a few months ago, Vaghela's man actually lost his deposit.

However, sitting chief ministers are difficult to dislodge in a
poll. But Vaghela's relief at that is tempered by one fact: if
Sitaram Kesri is in a hurry to succeed H D Deve Gowda, Madhavsinh
Solanki is no less impatient in Gandhinagar.

And for much the same reason. As in Delhi, the Congress is propping
up a ministry. Solanki sees no reason why he should not take over,
especially given that Vaghela's men are confirmed defectors!

Meanwhile, in Lucknow there are no, defectors for the simple reason
that no MLA has taken oath as yet. Everyone is awaiting the
judgement of the Supreme Court. If their Lordships too can't
square the circle, the only way out may be fresh polls.

It is an open question if the BSP will retain its alliance with the
Congress, and on what terms if so. And as in Punjab, the BJP too
is a little nervous. So is the Samajwadi Party.

(Except, perhaps, for one Samajwadi Party Union minister. His
major concern is his involvement in the Ayurveda seam. Thanks to
the media obsession with Laloo Prasad Yadav, his role has not
received the publicity it deserves. But that is only a matter of
time!)

It shall be summer by the time that all these MLAs take oath whole
assemblies in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, and one VVIP MLA in
Gujarat. Let us now turn to Delhi.

Whether or not the United Front ministry stays or falls, an
election is due in July. No, I am not referring to Lok Sabha
polls, but to the fact that a President must be elected in July.

The role of the President has become increasingly important of
late, not least because of the mixed electoral verdicts. Can you
imagine the chaos if, say, Romesh Bhandari and not Shankar Dayal
Sharma had been in Rashtrapati Bhawan through May and June 1996?!

The problem is that no party has an absolute majority in the
electoral college (elected MPs from both Houses and elected MLAs).
The BJP and its allies are probably the single largest group right
now. But remember that the results of spring are bound to have
repercussions in summer.

Could 1997 be a repeat of 1969, when the presidential election led
to major fissures, and was in fact the first round of a general
election? If anything, the situation today is more volatile.

What happens, for instance, if the Lok Sabha is dissolved? Can the
polls be held on schedule with roughly 33 per cent of the electoral
college not voting? Oddly enough, the answer maybe 'Yes'.

Many years ago, the Supreme Court ruled that the polls could go on
despite the Gujarat assembly not being in existence. Technically,
that ruling applies to the Lok Sabha too.

But what happens if, say, the Uttar Pradesh assembly too is not in
existence? And Bihar (where Laloo Prasad Yadav is threatening a
dissolution)? Going ahead with electing a President under those
circumstances is just asking for trouble.

Which would the Congress prefer a general election before voting f
or the President, or after that? If the former, India is in for its
third straight Lok Sabha election in Summer. (Which Sitaram Kesri
may avoid on medical grounds if nothing else!)

Finally, Fall. Autumn is traditionally the time when fruits ripen.
So, if all goes well, shall the plans of the Congress.

The Deve Gowda government shall fall. Wracked by indiscipline, the
BJP votes shall fall. And the voters of India shall again repose
their faith in the Congress as in the days of old. Or is the party
riding for a fall?

Even the most optimistic of the prime minister's supporters don't
believe this administration can continue beyond September. But
they are confident of blocking any other ministry from taking over
in the life of this Lok Sabha. That leaves just one option:
India's twelfth general election.

No news, runs the adage, is good news. As the fires lit on Makar
Sankranti melt the frozen postures of winter, I bet there will be
lots of news. And the Congress is determined to make a lot of it.



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