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America's silly move over Tarapur

America's silly move over Tarapur

Author: Inder Malhotra
Publication: Afternoon Despatch & Courier
Date: February 27, 2001

After several positive statements and promising indications about its determination to maintain the upswing in Indo-US relations, the month-old Bush administration has made its first false move. It is as hurtful as it is unnecessary. Its baneful consequences, to be discussed in detail presently, are already becoming obvious. The incipient mischief needs to be nipped in the bud in the best interests of both sides.

First, the facts. Tarapur is this country's first nuclear power station that was built nearly 35 years ago by the United States that had also guaranteed the supply of its fuel, enriched uranium, throughout the plant's life. From the very start, Tarapur has been under safeguards agreed to by India and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and accepted by the US.

Fuel duel

In spite of this, in the late 70s, after this country first nuclear explosion at Pokhran in 1974 and the subsequent election of President Jimmy Carter, the US reneged on its commitment to supply the fuel required to run Tarapur. After prolonged and painful negotiations, it was agreed that France would supply enriched uranium on exactly the terms and conditions on which America was doing earlier.

This could continue only upto 1992. In that year, France, which had refused to sign the NPT ultimately, decided to adhere to it. (So did China that, too, had stayed out of the NPT when it came into force in 1970). Consequently, India decided to import the nuclear fuel from China, under continuing IAEA safeguards, and Beijing readily agreed to sell it.

Russia came into the picture in October last when the Russian president, Mr. Vladimir Putin, on a visit to Delhi, agreed to fuel Tarapur, in addition to concluding some other nuclear agreements with this country.

Against this backdrop, America's demand on Russia not to supply India fuel for Tarapur, voiced in a public statement by the spokesman of the state department is curious, to say the least. The stated American pretext is that India has not accepted full-scope safeguards, as against safeguards in relation to specific foreign-aided nuclear facilities. But then this was precisely the position when the US applauded the agreement with France and raised no objection to the subsequent agreement between India and China.

Another American reason to demand cessation of fuel supplies is that "India has a nuclear weapons programme." In heaven's name, this country tested half a dozen nuclear weapons in May 1998 and declared itself a nuclear weapon power then. Russia, a signatory to the NPT and a member of the London-based Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG) knew this when it agreed not only to sell enriched uranium to this country but also to do a lot more.

For instance, Moscow is building at Koodankulam in south India a nuclear power station with two reactors of 1000 MW each. Moscow will provide the fuel for both on terms similar to those applicable to Tarapur. France, which is also keen on cooperation with India in nuclear power industry, is carefully watching the goings-on, and herein might lie a clue to America's quixotic move. The US laws prevent export to nuclear equipment and material to countries that do not accept full-scope safeguards. The US nuclear industry therefore is worried about the lucrative India market for nuclear power stations being captured by others. Another, wider objective vis-a-vis Russia also seems to be at work. Angered by Moscow's strong opposition to America' National Missile Defence (NMD) programme, Washington does want to pressurise Russia in whatever way it can. As for India, American purpose appears to be to serve notice that nuclear nonproliferation remains an issue despite the Bush administration's own rejection of the CTBT. Furthermore, if the Koodankulam project could be wrecked, American companies might be in a strong position to sell conventional power stations to this country to meet its acute shortage of electricity.

In 1993, the US had succeeded in arm-twisting Russia into amending its deal with India for the supply of cryogenic engines for the geo-stationary satellite-launching vehicles (GSLVs). But what has been the result? India has developed its GSLV largely on its own, and it will be operational next year - only a few years behind the original schedule. If the fuel supply for Tarapur is interrupted, this country can use the indigenously developed Mox fuel or continue to rely on China.

The key question is whether Russia will again succumb to American pressure. Moscow does need trade with and technology from America. But unlike Mr. Boris Yeltsin and Mr. Kozyrev, who ran Russian policy in the mid-90's, President Putin and his colleagues are Russian nationalists determined to uphold their country's interest. Russia also has the option of moving closer to China and jointly resisting American attempts to lay down the law for the rest of the world.

Whatever the course of future developments, the dangers inherent in Washington's ill-considered and ill-timed statement on Tarapur have already become manifest. In both this country and the US there are people mired in the old mind-set. Those in this country have started shouting that the "honeymoon" between the most powerful and most populous democracies "is over". Those subscribing to this view have strong objection also to an earlier statement by the American defence secretary, Mr. Donald Rumsfeld. While berating Russia for being a "missile proliferation, he had lumped India along with Iran and Libya, earlier described by the US as "rogue states" as recipients. He had made things worse by saying that all this "threatened" other people including the "US, Western Europe and countries in West Asia". To add insult to injury, Mr. Rumsfeld had remained totally silent on China's supplies of missiles and missile technologies to Pakistan.

Even so, officials in the South Block had tried to make light of the US defence secretary's tactless remarks as no more than an aberration. After the demand on Russia to terminate the Tarapur arrangement such indulgence is not possible. The trouble, however, is that over-reaction could be equally harmful.

It is in India's best interest to have the kind of qualitative change in its relations in the United States that has been in the offing for some time. Differences over the nuclear issue will not disappear. But to allow them to become an obstacle to better and cooperative relations with the United States would be an unwise policy. The best things India can do is to make known its point of view to the Bush administration in no uncertain terms. Beyond that it should be left to Russia to resist and reject the untenable American dictate. Interaction with France on the nuclear issue should all so be intensified.

US diplomacy

On the other hand, those who go on crowing about a "paradigm change" in America's attitude towards this country must learn to recognise that even when the relationship with the US becomes intimate, problems with Washington will persist. This is case with countries like China and Japan which, for different reasons, find a higher place in the American scheme of things than does India. The overbearing US also miffs its European allies from time to time. For instance, except for Britain, which joined the aggressive action, other European countries have distanced themselves from the US bombing of Iraq. China and Russia have condemned it. Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee has deplored it in moderate tones and rightly asked for the lifting of sanctions on Iraq.

In dealing with the US, this country will have to be steadfast, of course, in defence of its vital interests on which there can be no compromise. But it must also learn to be skillful and where necessary flexible. America knows that this country's minimum and credible nuclear deterrent will not disappear. If we play our card well, America will come to terms with this reality, as Russia has done, and France is likely to do.
 


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