Author: Rajeev Srinivasan
Publication: Rediff on Net
Date: March 17, 2001
I started writing this column on
March 15, and I wrote 'the long knives are out for George Fernandes...
for he is an honorable man'. Alas, events have overtaken me, and as I feared,
Fernandes has resigned. If the BJP government is the general target of
this scandal, the specific target is George Fernandes.
Because Fernandes made the classic
mistake of telling the truth: that India is in grave danger from China,
which has been encircling and containing us for fifty years. The Chinese,
and their fifth columnists in India, have been waiting for an opportunity
to get rid of the man. I have long been a fan of Fernandes, this former
seminary student and firebrand trade unionist. For on his watch, India
has done a number of things that showed cojones for just about the first
time:
The nuclear tests collectively known
as Pokhran II, and standing up to US-led bullying on that and on related
CTBT and MTCR issues. The improving relations with Myanmar and Vietnam.
The strategic activities aimed at containing China by allying with Russia,
Vietnam, Japan, etc. The recent naval exercises in the South China Sea.
The strong response to Pakistani incursions in Kargil. The testing of the
Agni-II when Chinese strongman Li Peng was in India recently. The moves
towards acquiring serious blue-water capability with another aircraft carrier
and the proposed nuclear submarine project. The large increases in the
defence budget in the last two years.
In other words Fernandes has understood
that without a strong defensive capability, the nation cannot thrive. I
am sure he has found the example of Tibet very instructive: unarmed monks
have no defence against tanks. I have written about the purely economic
need for defence before (see my column On the persistence of time). I believe
the British stole at least one trillion dollars, that is $1,000,000,000,000,
from India. Others estimate that the number is closer to five to ten trillion
US dollars. (For comparison, the US GDP is about $3 trillion.)
The British, and all the other barbarians,
were able to pillage because India was poorly defended. So the opportunity
cost of not defending the country is that endemic poverty that we see all
around. Is it worth spending money to defend yourself, your family, your
country? The usual suspects, the 'secular' 'progressive' fundamentalists
don't think so, for they like to give things away: Jammu and Kashmir to
Pakistan, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh to China, etc.
And then what? Give Punjab to Pakistan,
Uttar Pradesh to China? After all, they maintain that the Chinese attack
on India in 1962 was an 'internal matter' for China! The Nehruvian Stalinists
would probably like to show up at the Gateway of India with marigold garlands
to welcome the new King Emperor, the Chinese strongman of the day, singing
bhai-bhai hallelujahs. When will they ever learn, these misguided people
whom no end of evidence will convince? Perhaps when they are sent to concentration
camps (sorry, re-education camps) by the Chinese.
There is a classic dictum that when
you wish to figure out who has committed a crime, you should look at who
benefits and therefore is motivated. If you take this approach, who are
the beneficiaries of the current brouhaha triggered off by the expose by
tehelka.com?
1. The Bofors affected: the Hindujas,
O Quattrochhi, Sonia Gandhi. They can now bargain with the BJP: you lay
off my Bofors problems, and we won't crucify you for the defence scandal.
2. The Opposition: the CPI-M have
dusted off that old shibboleth, the United Front (or more appropriately
the Untied Front); Jyoti Basu is dreaming again of being prime minister,
to make amends for the 'historic blunder'. Not content with having ruined
West Bengal and Kerala, I suppose.
3. China: the one person in India
who has the nerve to stand up to them has been forced to step down in disgrace.
4. The US: now that the Bushies
are getting aggressive about 'cap, roll back' and all that good stuff about
India's nuclear programme, it is convenient to get Fernandes out.
Conversely, who suffers from this
new scandal?
1..The man in the street in India:
endemic political uncertainty has been one of India's biggest negatives
as far as investors, both domestic and foreign, are concerned. We now have
to worry about yet another potential general election.
2. Women in politics: Jaya Jaitly's
example will be held up by those with vested interests to suggest that
women have no role in politics. It is true that Mamta Banerjee and J Jayalalitha
have not exactly been sterling examples of responsible politicians either,
not to mention Rabri Devi Yadav or Madame Gandhi the Younger or, waiting
in the wings, Priyanka Vadhera.
3. The Dalits: for it will be pointed
out often that Bangaru Laxman was a Dalit. Implication: you can't trust
these low-caste people, you know, wink, wink, nudge, nudge.
4. The BJP: this causes them to
be tarred by the same brush as the Congress.
So it comes back to who had the
best motive to unleash this scam and cause disruption and hoo-haa and uproar.
It is not as though it is a revelation that there is corruption in India.
There is corruption in every government, including the US government: large
defence contracts attract large-scale corruption there too. Anybody recall
the Lockheed scandal a while ago? Or the $ 200 screwdrivers or what appears
to be gold-plated toilet seats? Besides, let he who amongst Indian has
not given or received a bribe cast the first stone.
In my mind, the finger of suspicion
points to the Chinese. For they have been known to attempt to influence
politics elsewhere through all sorts of direct and indirect means. Remember
the large sums routed to Bill Clinton through Chinese-American intermediaries?
Also, wasn't it curious how Subramanian Swamy visited China just before
his infamous Tea Party that brought down the previous BJP-led government?
Then there is N Ram, who writes long paeans to the brutal Chinese rule
in Tibet after being given the ten-day official, antiseptic, tour of the
place.
Furthermore, the Chinese are very
conscious of 'loss of face'. They deliberately insulted President K R Narayanan
by testing a nuclear bomb while he was visiting their country. The sort
of cavalier tit-for-tat testing of the Agni II when Li Peng was in India
must have bothered them quite a bit. This could well be the reason for
the sudden 'sting operation'.
Let me be explicit here: I am by
no means accusing tehelka.com of being funded by the Chinese, but a word
here and a nudge there by Chinese moles and agents in the Indian establishment
could suddenly make things happen for a team of investigators, who would
thank serendipity.
The general moves made by India
to consolidate its blue-water naval capabilities (an area in which India
is fairly significantly ahead of China) -- and especially the recent naval
exercises in what the Chinese consider their inland sea, the South China
Sea (you see, it has the name "China" in it and therefore it belongs to
them) -- have also rattled the Chinese a little.
Very interestingly, it has been
exactly one week since the Chinese announced their biggest-ever budget
for their military: an official number of $17.2 billion (an 18 pc increase
from last year in real terms); and the Economist suggests that 'actual
spending is between three and five times higher'.
And all of a sudden, India loses
its most able defence minister ever. Curious coincidence?
Nobody has ever accused George Fernandes
of embezzlement or accepting bribes. He has been a model of probity and
integrity. And we need him now. So won't you please reconsider and withdraw
your resignation, Mr Fernandes? This country needs you.