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Why a war against terror has Pakistan terrified

Why a war against terror has Pakistan terrified

Author: Pramit Pal Chaudhuri
Publication: Hindustan Times
Date: September 16, 2001

The Tables seem to have turned. A rehabilitated Pakistan is reportedly making demands of the United States: Lift sanctions, talk Kashmir. Indians wonder if Osama bin Laden has not magically healed an ailing US-Pakistan relationship. The equation is complex. What tilts it towards India is that the issue for the US is not bin Laden, but the entire architecture of terrorism. As a cornerstone of that architecture, Islamabad may find it difficult if the US converts it into rubble.

Pakistan is an unwilling ally. And Washington knows it. US leaders from George W. Bush to Colin Powell expressed scepticism whenever they mentioned Pakistan. Pervez Musharraf did not volunteer to help, he was coerced. Which is one reason the US has not accepted any of the demands Pakistan has made of it.

The circumstances under which India is offering refuelling rights to US warplanes could not have been different. Islamabad's providing bases will earn it Brownie points but not a special bond. US sources say, "We'll deal with Pakistan on its own merits. Now is the time to find out where these merits lie."

The reason lies in the sweep of the coming US war on terror. Getting bin Laden is only the first step. Missiles and commandos will only be the visible face of the campaign. The real business will be wrecking installations and safe havens, knocking out the drug-derived financial props that sustain terror and making it clear state-sponsorship will not be tolerated.

This has Pakistan's uniformed elite in cold sweat. Their jihad machine is funded by opium, inspired by cultivated violent creeds and sheltered by Pakistan's own rogue state - Afghanistan. It props up their military, keeps the Kashmir issue alive and covers up Islamabad's domestic failures. Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld speaks of war for years. US analysts say it will be like Washington's battle with Colombian cartels. But bigger. How closely can Pakistan associate itself with this war?

Offering the US bases was small stuff, yet it's giving Musharraf migraines. At least one service chief denounced him. The army is intimidating mullahs to keep a lid on protests. The US wants to wipe out the Taliban. It will press governments to shut down madrassas, disarm militants, jail hate-mongering religious leaders and ban their organisations.

In essence, Islamabad will be asked to junk its jihad machine, reduce its regional influence and undercut its nationhood. Many in New Delhi and Washington wonder if the Pakistani state will survive such a sustained campaign. It will have to change, or perish. Musharraf is asking for any sop he can get from the US. But these sops are dwarfed by the abyss that has opened before him.
 


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