Author: Manoj Joshi
Publication: The Times of India
Date: October 19, 2001
According to Indian narcotics control
officials, contrary to the claims of the UN and some Western countries
about the Taliban having ensured "zero cultivation" of opium this year,
it is business as usual in Afghanistan as far as the drug trade is concerned.
In fact, an analysis based on processing
commercially available satellite imagery has revealed that the Taliban
has done little to block opium cultivation, and the decline in the production
of the drug in Helmand province this year was the consequence of a drought.
According to the UN Drug Control
Programme's annual poppy survey for Afghanistan, there has been a 91 per
cent reduction in the total poppy area as compared to last year. But there
are discrepancies in the Indian and UN estimates over the larger producing
provinces of Helmand and Nangarhar. Although both India and the UN agree
that very little has been produced in Helmand this year, the reasons for
it differ. While the UN believes that its efforts have paid dividends,
Indian officials blame the fall on the drought.
However, the two sides differ completely
as regards production in Nangarhar province. While the UN believes that
there has been a sharp decline (from 747 hectares cultivated last year
to 218 this year), according to the Indian estimate, it has only been marginal
and about 600 tonnes of raw opium, capable of producing $250 million worth
of heroin, was produced there this year.
"Faced with UN sanctions, the Taliban
conducted a massive deception operation earlier this year. After declaring
its intention to end opium cultivation, all that the militia did was to
close a few training camps. This was bought hook, line and sinker by Western
officials and the media," an Indian official said.
In Nangarhar, a Western Donor Group
and UN officials were reportedly taken to an area with no opium cultivation.
Despite their knowledge of the areas in the vicinity where cultivation
is traditionally prolific, the officials did not insist on physically verifying
the area but simply took the Taliban's word for it.
After the UN gave its report, the
Taliban got several million dollars for its efforts. "But," asked a bemused
Indian narcotics official, "do they really think that the Taliban will
kiss away a billion dollar enterprise for a few million dollars of aid?"
The analysis based on commercial
satellite imagery has been done in the following way-to obtain the images,
the reflectance of opium in different areas and in varying concentrations
per square metres is measured. Opium is grown in India legally and so it
was "spotted" from the satellite imagery to test the accuracy of the signature.
The opium was given a yellow colour
to facilitate recognition and after that, the Afghan crop was tracked.
Images A1, A2 and B1 and B2, all taken near Achin in Nangarhar province
close to Pakistan, were taken on identical dates in April 2000 and 2001
and they showed that there was little change in the extent of cultivation.
According to the officials, another indicator of the continuing participation
of the Taliban in the opium trade comes from the seizure of two tonnes
of opium this July in Tajikistan, in a region bordering Konduz province
controlled by the Taliban.