Author: Patrick Bishop
Publication: The Daily Telegraph,
UK
Date: November 2, 2002
In the time of Ayatollah Khomeini
Friday prayers at Teheran University were like a religious rock show where
thousands flocked to hear the mullah's sermons.
Fifteen years on the rhetoric remains
the same but the congregation is greatly diminished.
Last week the huge, open sided shed
on the campus was only half full as Ayatollah Mohammed Yazdi, a veteran
preacher, denounced Zionists and Americans.
Most of those listening were well
on in years.
Yawning soldiers and airmen had
been drafted in to make up the numbers. Some of the worshippers appeared
to be from the local mental hospital. It was all a long way from the glory
days when preachers waved Kalashnikov rifles and yells of "Death to America!"
raised the tin roof.
The revolutionary dynamo that stoked
the zeal of the Muslim world and sent a wave of fear rumbling through the
West would appear to have run down.
Teheran seems relaxed. Young women
wear the hejab perched precariously on the backs of their heads in a half-contemptuous
nod towards the rules. Internet cafes flourish. Most people say they would
like to be friends with the outside world. A recent survey suggested 70
per cent of young people want to mend fences with America. Yet repression
is always waiting to bite. The head of the organisation that carried out
the poll was arrested for daring to report that only 1.2 per cent of 1,000
Teheranis canvassed regarded the present
Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
as their favourite politician.
Five years after the election of
the reformist President Mohammed Khatami the struggle between modernisers
and hardliners is as intense as ever.
The revolution itself seems safe.
Middle-aged Iranians may grumble, but there is little nostalgia for the
Shah. However, the revolution's direction is still undecided.
Mr Khatami came to power in a 1997
landslide backed overwhelmingly by women and the young with a mandate to
ease repression and open up the country and was re-elected in 2001.
His supporters have regularly won
more than two thirds of the seats in parliamentary and local polls. Their
aim is reform, firstly of an economy almost totally dependent on oil and
crippled by restrictions, corrupt ion and waste.
Unemployment runs at 13-14 percent
officially but is probably nearer 30 per cent. Almost half the 760,000
young Iranians arriving on the job market each year cannot find work, which
contributes to the appalling rate of heroin addiction. They also want to
loosen puritanical social restrictions on women's dress, contacts between
men and women and access to other cultures. They would like to end their
international pariah status and forge proper diplomatic and economic links
with the rest of the world.
Althought the contest is often presented
as a straight fight between conservatives and reformers the factions sometimes
overlap.
Despite their differences, Iran's
politicians and groups share a belief in the principle of Islamic government
and revere Khomeini's memory. But Mr Khatami has faced vigorous opposition
from entrenched interests, led by the Supreme Leader himself.
His difficulties stem from parallel
constitutional arrangements which give decisive powers to unelected bodies
such as the conservative-dominated 12-man Council of Guardians, essentially
controlled by Ayatollah Khamenei, which determines whether parliamentary
legislation is compatible with sharia law.
Mr Khatami has now challenged the
council and anti-reformist judiciary by introducing two bills seeking to
limit their ability to interfere. His opponents claimed their acceptance
would grant the president greater powers than those of the Shah, an unconvincing
charge given Mr Khatami's character and track record and the pre-eminence
of the office of the Supreme Leader.
The bills are a gambit to try to
break the stalemate limiting the process of reform. They can expect to
receive parliamentary backing but require the Guardian Council's endorsement
to become law.
If blocked, they could trigger a
constitutional showdown between the factions that will determine the success
or failure of Mr Khatami's reformist mission. If they succeed, Iran will
have taken a sizeable step to international rehabilitation.