Author: Swapan Dasgupta
Publication: Free Press Journal
Date: June 7, 2004
URL: http://www.samachar.com/features/070604-features.html
Devi Lal, the Haryana stalwart and
former deputy prime minister under V.P. Singh, had a very earthy wisdom.
Confronted by an abstruse exercise in ideological hair-splitting before
the 1989 election, he asked: "Who reads manifestoes?" It's a piece of political
advice that many Indians are hoping that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
will heed during his tenure. It was bad enough for the soft-spoken economist
to suffer the ignominy of being nominated to the top job by Sonia Gandhi
rather than being elected by the Congress parliamentary party. He had to
suffer the additional slight of not having the prerogative of choosing
his own Council of Minister. He had to silently undergo the humiliation
of the DMK flaunting an agreement on the distribution of portfolios that
had been negotiated by Janardhan Reddy, on behalf of Sonia Gandhi.
Now, to compound his disabilities,
he is hamstrung by a document called the Common Minimum Programme (CMP)
whose release had the stock markets voting with their pockets. Lacking
any pre-poll understanding about the future, it is understandable that
the United Progressive Alliance had to forge an agenda of governance. What
seems less obvious is why the Congress had to capitulate almost all way
to a Left that refuses to assume direct responsibility for the backroom
power it wields.
In its final shape, the CMP is more
akin to a Communist Minimum Programme than a document that reflects the
rather convoluted mandate of Election 2004. Those familiar with the history
of Communism will see unmistakable traces of the Popular Front approach
of the 1930s. It reflects what CPI (M) politburo member Prakash Karat has
identified as the Left determination to "counter the dominance of ruling
class policies". This is a more refined version of what the West Bengal
chief minister Buddhadeva Bhattacharya told a Left Front victory rally
in Kolkata last week.
The implications for the direction
in which India will move are quite horrifying. The CMP is a regressive,
1960s-style document that has the potential of blunting the competitive
edge of India, re-introducing a highcost economy with in-built inefficiencies,
diluting national security and derailing India's distinctive role in international
relations. If the CMP is pursued in letter and spirit, the first casualty
is likely to be the economy. The Congress, some of its allies and the Left
appear to have equated the defeat of the NDA with a categorical rejection
of economic reforms. In 1996, the A.K. Antony report of the Congress blamed
Manmohan Singh's reformist policies for its defeat. This means that it
is not only the Left that opposes reforms but a substantial body of Congressmen
too.
What matters is not so much that
disinvestments -the strategy of unlocking national resources for infrastructure
and social sector development-have been put on indefinite hold. Far more
worrying is that the CMP will introduce a high tax, high inflation and
high inefficiency regime. The two per cent cess on education and health
is only the beginning of a policy aimed at squeezing small section that
pays income tax.
With minimal government set to be
replaced by intrusive state intervention, we can expect the UPA to come
down hard on the middle class and corporate sector to bankroll its high-cost
schemes. This will lead to an inevitable return of tax evasion, patronage
politics and pilferage of government resources.
It is not these ills were not there
under the NDA. However, the policy direction was towards fewer controls,
greater transparency and a modicum of ethical capitalism. This seems set
to be reversed, not least because the Congress believes that politics is
all about having the greatest hold on the cash generating sectors of the
economy. With militant trade unionism also receiving a boost and strictures
imposed on labour flexibility, India's global competitive edge will be
blunted. The real beneficiary of this retreat from sensible economic policies
will be China-a turn of events that should not displease the Left. Their
lack of commitment to India is legendary. This backward slide seems set
to be replicated in India's global role. Under the NDA, India inched forward
in the direction of evolving its own strategic doctrine that combined regional
clout with economic potential. India sought a significant role as a strategic
partner of the US and as an economic counterweight to China.
Judging by the CMP, this approach
is certain to be junked. With its emphasis on anti- American grandstanding,
the CMP is pressing for a return to the good old days of non-alignment.
It is an absurd approach. Apart from the fact that there is no alternate
superpower to accord tacit protection, India has built strategic enough
bridges with the West to prevent Pakistan from leveraging its post- 9/11
clout in Kashmir. The CMP proposes to squander that advantage. From an
aspiring great power, the UPA seems intent on pushing India back to its
pre-1998 Third World status.
Already the new government is showing
alarming laxity in the realms of internal security. The CMP has glorified
Naxalites to the level of social bandits by calling extremism a "socio-
economic problem". And the problem of illegal Bangladeshi influx into eastern
India has been categorised by the Home Minister as a humanitarian problem.
With the LTTE likely to regain its respectability and presence in Tamil
Nadu, thanks to the Congress' willingness to corner Jayalalithaa at any
cost, India seems set to recover its status as a soft and permissive state,
a state that is unmindful of its own self-interest.
None of these developments, however,
are inevitable. Once the full implication of the CMP sinks in, Manmohan
will have two choices. Either he can, like Indira Gandhi did in 1969, decide
that the future lies in veering sharply Left. Alternatively, he can emulate
the rustic wisdom of Devi Lal and, perhaps, conveniently forget that there
is something called the CMP. He can also do what his political mentor P.
V. Narasimha Rao did-pursue national interests over dogma. Unfortunately,
you have to be in a self-destructive mode if you mention Rao's achievements
in the earshot of the Gandhi household.
