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No Time to Waste

No Time to Waste

Author: K Subrahmanyam
Publication: The Times of India
Date: September 23, 2008

Introduction: Pakistan cannot any longer afford to be soft on terror

The massive explosion at the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad, not far from the residence of the Pakistani prime minister, was a clear message to the Pakistani army, civil society and political parties. The message was delivered a few hours after President Asif Ali Zardari talked about his three-pronged strategy to deal with terrorism. After the explosion, Zardari vowed to eliminate the "cancer" of terrorism.

So far no organisation has claimed responsibility for the attack. However, given the fact there were prior threats and an attack of this magnitude could not have been an individual act, it is evident that this was a well-planned attack by a major terrorist organisation designed to convey a message to the Pakistani establishment. The common aim of al-Qaeda and the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban is to establish an Islamic caliphate. What could be a better way of initiating efforts towards that objective than to strike terror in Pakistan and extend Taliban control in Pakistani territory? Surely, such successful attacks on iconic targets in the Pakistani capital will boost the standing and reputation of Taliban among some people.

This is a moment of truth for the Pakistani army, government and the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). Everyone in Pakistan knows that Mullah Omar, leader of the Afghan Taliban, is in Quetta and enjoys the hospitality of the Pakistani army and the ISI. There is a widespread opinion in Pakistan that such attacks are the result of Islamabad siding with Washington in the war on terrorism. But there is no assurance that if Pakistan pulls out of operations against Taliban, the country will be able to save itself from such attacks. The Afghan Taliban uses Pakistani territory as a safe haven for attacks on American and International Security Alliance Forces (ISAF) in Afghanistan. The Pakistani Taliban asserts that movement across the Durand line is an inherent right of Pakhtuns on both sides.

Drugs from Afghanistan flow through Pakistan to the world market to raise resources for the Taliban to sustain its war. Pakistan provides a lifeline for US forces and ISAF in Afghanistan. In other words, the US and NATO war against Afghan Taliban cannot be pursued without Pakistani support for which Islamabad has been paid billions of dollars over the last seven years and without which the Pakistani economy is likely to plunge into a crisis.

Whatever may be the Pakistan army's and government's decisions on cooperation with the US in the war against Afghan Taliban, it is clear that the latter will continue its operations against US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Does Pakistan have an option to delink itself from US efforts to carry on operations against Taliban? Can Pakistan afford to forego American aid? If Pakistan decides to distance itself from US operations on account of Taliban pressure, will not a victorious Taliban then try to extend its control over Afghanistan and Pakistan?

Till now, the ISI and the Pakistani army appear to have operated under the assumption that they are in a position to control the Taliban and limit their operations. The demolition of the Marriott Hotel appears to indicate that this may no longer be the case. So did the earlier Lal Masjid uprising, Benazir Bhutto's assassination and the militancy in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The Taliban, which the Pakistani army and ISI nurtured and hoped to use to gain strategic depth in Afghanistan and to bleed India, has turned into a monster with an agenda of its own.

Can there be a deal between the Taliban - both the Afghan and Pakistani units - and the Pakistani army? It does not seem to be likely since the Taliban has tasted power not only in nearly half the territory of Afghanistan but also in FATA and other border areas of Pakistan. Further, the Taliban makes plenty of money from the narcotics trade. The Taliban will also hope that US military operations against Pakistan will alienate the Pakistani people and align them in its favour. In such circumstances, a realistic and lasting ceasefire arrangement between the Pakistani army and the Taliban does not appear to be feasible. The only viable option open to Washington is to confront the Pakistani army with the choice that future aid to Pakistan will be calibrated on the results obtained in its operations against Taliban. That course of action will also be imposed on the army if the Pakistani state, civil society and the middle class do not want to get Talibanised but desire a moderate Islamic state.

If the Pakistani army takes the final decision to fight the Taliban and the ISI can be disciplined and controlled to ensure that there is no leakage of information to the Taliban, then there will be less need for US troops to operate on their own in Pakistani territory. This is a deciding moment for the Pakistani army and government. Will Zardari's words about ridding the country of the cancer of terrorism be translated into action? He will have an opportunity to communicate Pakistan's decision to President George Bush during his current visit to America.

If the Pakistani government and army waver in their resolve to fight the war against terrorism, India along with the rest of the world should be prepared for an extremely unstable situation in this region in the coming years.

- The writer is a Delhi-based strategic affairs analyst.


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