Author: Udayan Namboodiri
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: January 3, 2009
URL: http://www.dailypioneer.com/147410/Is-Hasina-II-good-news-for-India.html
Going by inherited wisdom we must rejoice
every time a 'friendly' regime takes over in Dhaka. Hasina let us down before,
but now we may have a new Hasina
Rajiv Gandhi commented after his landslide
victory in the 1984 election: "People's expectations are scary".
The same thought may have crossed Sheikh Hasina's mind this week after her
party, the Awami League, was voted back to power with a margin that reminded
many here in Delhi of Nehruvian era elections. For, let us not forget that
if there is ever such a thing as a poisoned chalice of a political high office,
the one that Hasina took over from the caretaker government is it.
Bangladesh's predicament is no secret to readers
of Saturday Special, or for that matter The Pioneerl. Our colleague, Hiranmay
Karlekar, won global recognition for highlighting the pernicious honeymoon
between Bangladeshi polity and Talebanist forces. His depiction of that overcrowded,
penurious little nation (Bangladesh: the next Afghanistan, New Delhi, 2005)
struck a chord in concerned circles. Now that the hopes of Bangladeshis have
been reposed on this matron who symbolises the liberal face of Bangladeshi
Islam, what does she do with it?
Then, there is her other problem -- the upsurge
of hope that has followed her victory in India. Almost every foreign policy
expert in India believes that with Hasina in power in Dhaka, half of India's
problems with her North-East are over. But there is little evidence to suggest
that the period between 1996 and 2001 - the only time that Hasina has been
in power -- was marked by remarkable collaboration on snuffing out North-East
militancy. It is also time for the CII types to re-string their sitars to
play the old tunes about gas collaboration, transit rights to the North-east
and the oh-so-pleasurable "cultural ties". But even here her record
has been topsy turvy.
As Kanchan Lakshman (The Other Voice) points
out, hope and despair alternated in the Indo-Bangla track during the late
1990s. The December 1996 Ganga water sharing agreement was the starting point
of a foreign policy based on deceiving India to the point where the victim
begins to actually enjoy fantasia. Of course, we Indians must admit that something
patently Hindu called "Gujral doctrine" provided the enabling environment
for the premiers of all South Asian countries to guarantee everything, including
the sun, moon and stars to their neighbours. So powerful was the drug of sham
cooperation that nothing short of Pokhran II could end the somnabulence.
Hasina played an important role in that surreal
drama. She got the three-decade-old Ganga water-sharing problem resolved in
her favour along with a basket of other goodies that included trade benefits.
Yet, she gave nothing in return. On several crucial issues Hasina revealed
she had her father, the late Bangabandhu's, skill of running circles around
India.
It's not polite to recall a lady's past in
her hour of glory, but the memory of the Anoop Chetia incident just won't
go away. Chetia, one of the founders of the dreaded ULFA, was enjoying the
sanctuary given him by Khaleda Zia during her 1991-96 term. In early 1997,
some police officer, mistaking his Prime Minister's glib talk as serious intent,
raided Chetia's safehouse and arrested him. But the Hasina government did
not do the next logical thing - deport Chetia as promised - but booked him
in a hundred little cases and went on with business as usual. Eventually,
a Bangladeshi court sentenced him and he served a part of it.By the time of
his release(2005), Khaleda was back in power.
Now, in the aftermath of the Mumbai terror
attacks, New Delhi has revived the whole gamut of issues --North-East, HuJI
etc. Home Minister P. Chidambaram told the Lok Sabha on December 16: "
A message must go that Bangladesh is duty-bound to honour its commitment and
assurances." He went on to say that his ministry had 'information' regarding
the presence of Indian insurgents in Bangladesh soil.
This could be the first touchstone for Hasina.
She has already made the customary right noises. She has promised that Bangladeshi
soil would not be permitted for use by terrorists. She has also called for
setting up a joint task force to act against terrorism in the region. "
It is crucial to combat terrorism and (carry out) development of the region.
The (proposed) task force could end the mutual blame-game (on terrorism issue)
between the countries in our region," announced the 61-year-old Prime
Minister elect. But that is old hat. The first part of her statement is déjà
vu. As for the 'proposal', it's nothing but a kite - first flown by Pakistan's
Musharraf in the January 2002 SAARC Summit.
Let's also not forget that the Mankachar incident
happened when Hasina was in power. In April 2001, a group of Border Security
Force (BSF) jawans led by an Inspector was brutally murdered by Bangladesh
security personnel. The chief of Bangladesh Rifles kept his job despite India's
protests. That was the point when grave doubts surfaced in Indian policy circles
about the leverage enjoyed by New Delhi in a Bangladesh led by "Mubib's
daughter". For the first time, Indian realised that the post-1992 policy
of putting all its eggs in the Awami basket was all wrong.
It was too late. Hasina was voted out of power
in October that year. The news was received in India with complete shock.
Remember, it was not four weeks since 9/11, and suddenly you had India sandwiched
between two Islamic fundamentalist-backed nations. The grimness was exacerbated
by the realisation that the doctrine of pandering to Hasina and ignoring the
other Begum--Khaleda Zia--had led to a situation where it was clear that India
lacked entry points to the new Dhaka establishment.
However, the Hasina of 2009 may not be the
Hasina of 1996. As Joyeeta Bhattacharjee (Lookback) )points out, what we have
just seen in Bangladesh is a mandate against religious fundamentalism, the
very Talebanism of which Karlekar had alerted the world. Being the wily politician
we know her as, it is unlikely that Hasina would give the mullahs a second
chance. She was herself an almost-victim of a terrorist attack (2004) and
therefore rides the crest of public sympathy. It may not be politically wise
on her part to throw that goodwill away.
Another important change to the setting is
America under Barack Obama. For decades, Washington has treated Bangladesh
as inconsequential, a basket case (a Kissinger legacy) who has been caught
in the whirlwind of Islamic fundamentalism as part of a general post-9/11
tendency. But when a time comes when a US President takes genuine interest
in a comprehensive view of terrorism, it would be apparent that Bangladesh
is Pakistan's strategic depth, a veritable reserve fund of the ISI, part of
a bigger axis of evil. Of course, pegging this hope on Obama is part of the
scary expectations that he encounters at the end of a campaign that changed
everything in America. If and when Obama asserts himself ,a lot things, including
Hasina's hour to make good on her pledge, could happen.
For now, the very fact that 75 per cent of
the world's poorest Islamic nation voted, and that too in a superbly managed
election, is evidence of a new era in the offing. In fact, Hasina, in her
second innings, may be the point of rally for a new, self-cleansing movement
within Islam. In this, she deserves all the support she needs from the world's
other great democracies.
- The writer is Senior Editor, The Pioneer
