Author: Brahma Chellaney
Publication: The Times of India
Date: December 4, 2011
URL: http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-12-04/all-that-matters/30474386_1_round-of-border-talks-tibetan-leader-tibet-autonomous-region
As geopolitical rivals, India and China face
each other over a highly disputed border. The inviolability of virtually the
entire 4,057 km border - one of the longest in the world - has been called
into question by China's increasing cross-frontier military incursions and
its calculated refusal to mutually draw a fully agreed line of control along
the Himalayas.
The amount of Indian land China occupies or
openly covets tops 135,000 sq km, or approximately the size of Costa Rica.
China currently has unresolved land and sea border disputes with 11 other
neighbours. But in comparison with China's territorial disputes with other
neighbours now or even in the past, its land disputes with India stand out
for their sheer size and importance.
Beijing's last-minute postponement of a scheduled
round of border talks constitutes no real loss for New Delhi because China
has used these 30-year-long negotiations to keep India engaged while blocking
any real progress. Even as Beijing has since 2006 provocatively revived its
claim to Arunachal Pradesh and concurrently stepped up cross-border forays
in all sectors, New Delhi has stayed locked in these fruitless talks.
Let's be clear: These talks, constituting
the longest and the mostbarren process between any two nations post-World
War II, have only aided the Chinese strategy to mount more military pressure
while working to hem in India behind the cover of engagement.
For example, by deploying several thousand
troops in Pakistanoccupied Kashmir and playing the Kashmir card against India
in various ways, China has clearly signalled its intent to squeeze India on
Jammu and Kashmir. The military pressure China has built up on Arunachal may
just be tactical. The plain fact is that India's vulnerability in J&K
has been heightened by the new Chinese military encirclement.
To help undermine the Dalai Lama's role, Beijing
is now exerting pressure on India to deny the Tibetan leader any kind of public
platform. The recent diplomatic spat, as the Chinese foreign ministry has
acknowledged, was not just about the Dalai Lama's address to a religious conference
that overlapped with the now-scrapped talks. Rather, Beijing brashly insists
that India not provide him a public platform of "any form."
Beijing draws encouragement from its success
in bringing India's Tibet stance in full alignment with the Chinese line.
In 2003, the aging and ailing Atal Bihari Vajpayee surrendered India's last
remaining leverage on Tibet when he formally recognized the cartographically
dismembered Tibet that Beijing calls the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) as
"part of the territory of the People's Republic of China." In recent
years, even as Beijing has mocked India's territorial integrity, New Delhi
has not sought to subtly add some flexibility to its Tibet stance.
In fact, Manmohan Singh's climbdown in first
suspending bilateral defence exchanges and then meekly resuming them has only
emboldened Beijing. India froze defence exchanges in response to Beijing's
stapled-visa policy on J&K and its refusal to allow the Northern Command
chief to head an Indian military delegation to China. Yet Singh personally
delivered a two-in-one concession to Beijing earlier this year, agreeing to
resume defence talks by delinking them from the stapled-visa issue and dropping
the Northern Command chief as the Indian military team's leader.
Even in the latest dust-up , where was the
need for the Indian President to first agree to inaugurate the international
Buddhist conference and then chicken out even after the Chinese had cancelled
the scheduled border talks? The PM too backed out.
Just as Beijing compelled New Delhi to climb
down on the defence talks, it is likely to drive a hard bargain on the border
talks, even though their indefinite suspension can only help bare the actions
of the encircler, which wishes to expand its 1951 Tibet annexation to Arunachal.
China has upped the ante on the Dalai Lama
because it recognizes that he remains a major strategic asset for India. By
asking New Delhi to go beyond denying him a political platform to denying
him even a religious platform, it is seeking to extend its containment of
India to the Dalai Lama. And it wants India's help in this endeavour.
Actually, China has embarked on a larger strategy
to cement its rule on an increasingly restive Tibet by bringing Tibetan Buddhism
under the tight control of an atheist state. From its capture of the Panchen
Lama institution to its decree to control the traditional process of finding
the reincarnation of any senior lama who passes away, Beijing is acting long
term. It is also waiting to install its own marionette as the next Dalai Lama
when the present incumbent dies. Only India can foil this broader strategy
- and it must for the sake of its own interests.
- The writer is a strategic analyst
