Author: Riyaz Wani
Publication: Tehelka
Date: December 24, 2011
URL: http://www.tehelka.com/story_main51.asp?filename=Ne241211ARMY.asp
Pakistan will stoke trouble in Kashmir once US-led forces exit Afghanistan,
says Lt Gen Ata Hasnain. And that's why he wants AFSPA to stay
TO JAMMU & KASHMIR Chief Minister Omar
Abdullah's demand for the partial repeal of the Armed Forces Special Powers
Act (AFSPA) from the state, the army's response is not 'No' but 'Not yet'.
And its reason is not the residual militancy in the Valley but the fast evolving
geo-strategic environment in the region, especially after the US-led forces
withdraw from Afghanistan in 2014.
Here is how the Indian Army sees the scenario
play out across the region: Kashmir will become the renewed target of Islamabad's
attention after the NATO allies' exit. Coincidentally, Pakistan will start
its non-permanent stint on the United Nations Security Council for a two-year
term in 2012, together with the representatives of some Organisation of Islamic
Cooperation (OIC) countries. This could set in motion a process that culminates
in Kashmir's independence.
The model, a copy of which is with TEHELKA,
is the basis for the army's resistance to efforts at rollback of AFSPA. It
spans a series of geopolitical landmarks, from the conception of Operation
Topac in 1984 through the "political tipping point" in 1987, which
led to militancy to the "agitational resistance" in 2010.
It lays out an integrated six-year plan (2011-16)
being allegedly worked out by Pakistan that draws on the opportunities of
the unfolding regional and global situation. In Kashmir, this will include
the incremental process of galvanising a fresh public groundswell followed
by escalation of the militant struggle geared to bring the state back into
global focus. The steady build-up would include subversion of J&K Police,
disempowerment of the army and diversion of Taliban to the Valley in 2012-13,
followed by engineering of a 'tipping point' and mobilising of 'Intifada'
in 2013- 14. In 2015-16, Pakistan in concert with OIC is expected to move
a UN resolution for plebiscite in Kashmir leading to the state's secession.
"This scenario may or may not play out
but this is the likeliest trajectory that the situation can take. And we as
defence forces have to be ready for this," says General Officer Commanding
15 Corps Lieutenant General Ata Hasnain. "The army's job is to offer
the best security opinion and stick to it."
That is why the army feels the demand in the
Valley for the rollback of AFSPA is far outweighed by a "pronounced and
bigger external dimension" of Kashmir, which makes it an inalienable
part of the ongoing great game in the AfPak region - a Kabul- Islamabad-Srinagar
axis. What could be a game-changer is the factor of rising China. The army
apprehends that in the current situation, an uncanny echo of the events that
followed the exit of USSR from Afghanistan around 1989, exactly the time jihad
began in Kashmir.
"At the time, nobody imagined the rise
of Islamic fundamentalism around the world and the situation that would confront
us. Who knows the situation could follow an identical trajectory. We have
to be ready for the worst-case scenario," says Lt Gen Hasnain. "Kashmir
is not an ordinary place. We see the conflict in the place as the existential
threat. Our job is to ward off this threat."
THE ARMY doesn't buy the argument about its
absence in Budgam and Srinagar districts as reason enough for AFSPA to go.
It contends it has both adequate presence in the districts as well as security
assets to protect. "If not through day, we operate through the night.
We lay around 150 nightly ambushes in Budgam alone," says Lt Gen Hasnain.
"Besides, there is an airfield in Srinagar that demands layers of security
and the area domination to protect it. And what about our convoys that regularly
pass through Srinagar?"
In response to human rights grievances in
the Valley, the army nevertheless mounts a strong defence of its record of
acting against the erring personnel. Lt Gen Hasnain says the army has taken
action in 108 cases, which include dismissal from service of many personnel.
Lt Gen Hasnain himself headed the court martial
of Major Rehman, who was charged with raping a mother and daughter in Kupwara
in 2004. The Major was dismissed from service in February 2005 once the case
against him was proved.
In case of Pathribal too, where the army killed
five innocent civilians in south Kashmir and passed them off as foreign terrorists
who gunned down 36 Sikhs in Chittisinghpora during then US President Bill
Clinton's visit to India in 2000, the army plays up the fact of state government
not acting against the J&K police personnel "who informed the army
about these persons". Even the army chief, General VK Singh, in an interview
to a television channel, tellingly highlighted the fact that the Superintendent
of Police Farooq Khan, who was involved in the encounter, is now Deputy Inspector
General of Police.
Similarly on the Machhil incident, the army
blames the state government for delaying the action. "The case is in
the court. We have filed a petition that we want to try the accused in a military
court," says Lt Gen Hasnain. "But for the past seven months, the
state government has not filed the objections, which has held up the decision.
The case can go to either court. But if the case comes to us, we will ensure
that justice is done in the shortest time possible."
In the given situation, AFSPA's role, the
army feels, is that of an umbrella. "We use the umbrella only when there
is rain. In case of sunshine, there is no use for it," says Lt Gen Hasnain.
"More peace is there, less the need for the army to act and least the
likelihood of the army being involved in human rights violations."
As for the urgent need to address the deep
public concerns in Kashmir on AFSPA, the army feels it has taken steps towards
dilution of the law even while it remains against its rollback.
This dilution comprises four parts: one, Supreme
Court's dos and don'ts which among other directions forbid the custody beyond
24 hours and advises use of minimum force and co-opting of police in its counter-insurgency
operations. Two, Chief of Army Staff's Ten Commandments that call for the
respect of human rights of the people in the state including "no rape
and no torture resulting in death or maiming". Third, Rules of Engagement,
which similarly seek to promote a sense of restraint in army's response to
militancy and the non-violent agitation. Fourth, Force Ethos which teaches
army personnel to respect the local population.
- Riyaz Wani is a Special Correspondent with
Tehelka.
riyaz@tehelka.com
