Author: Barkha Dutt
Publication: Hindustan Times 
Date: May 18, 2018
URL:      https://m.hindustantimes.com/columns/opposition-versus-modi-why-fighting-the-bjp-locally-is-a-good-strategy/story-DT1RWbwkn3V4QET2I5yh4L_amp.html?__twitter_impression=true

By focusing too much on personality-centric narratives, the Opposition is walking straight into a trap set by Amit Shah and Narendra Modi

In the many autopsies and post-mortems that political coroners will conduct on the body politic of Karnataka, there is one conclusion that is obvious: as the opposition parties recover their will to fight, in the race to 2019, they need to think national, fight local.

Yes, the point has already been made many times over on how the arithmetic of opposition unity is the only counter to the chemistry of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. And yes, their future lies in alliances. But even if the Karnataka jolt glues together all the non-BJP parties, this formula does not address the fundamental way in which the BJP under Modi has changed the nature of Indian politics. He has made them Presidential in the American sense. Now the individual is the battlefield and a single personality is what people vote for or reject. For the BJP, Modi is the message; everything else in the organisational machinery is deployed to amplify that.

So far the Opposition has played along and accepted, in a resigned sort of way, that these are the new rules of the game. It has scrambled to find a personality of its own to counter Modi. It has become conventional wisdom that without a ‘face’ to position as the alternative, the BJP will keep winning. The recasting of Rahul Gandhi — the Congress President is now more vocal, has a smarter social media presence and has begun interacting with the media — was part of the opposition playing catch-up. Some of these changes were necessary, long overdue and can’t be faulted. However, in the present circumstances, by focusing too much on personality-centric narratives, the Opposition is walking straight into a trap set by Amit Shah and Narendra Modi.

The BJP knows the personal popularity of Modi gives him the natural advantage in any clash of individuals on the national stage. And it has cleverly made both the Congress and the state satraps defensive about not having a natural leader at its helm that can commandeer a disparate collection of parties. The BJP is playing on the Opposition’s insecurities that the voters may not respond well to a political khichdi that does not have a master chef. But if its battle plans are based on this thinking, it is fighting in a defensive position instead of offensive. In fact, it is doing exactly what the BJP thinks — and hopes — it will do.

The non-BJP parties need to understand that the only way for them to have a chance at defeating Narendra Modi is by fighting the BJP locally in 543 constituencies. The informally organised federal front needs to focus on its natural strengths: strong regional leaders, loyal caste arithmetic, and strong roots in the home-grown language, culture and ethnic identity. And they must fight the next general election without a pre-declared prime ministerial candidate. That sounds like it defies this season’s trends, and it does. Because this season’s fashion is a poor fit for the anti-BJP collective.

If the Opposition makes the mistake of naming who its prime ministerial face will be, should it win, there will be three outcomes. First, Modi will personally be much more of a draw than any other contender. Second, it will splinter a tenuous Opposition unity, creating factions and camps and opportunities for surreptitious sabotage. It could also put off certain blocs of voters who don’t respond well to the chosen candidate. And the larger political narrative will be scripted by the behemoth that is the BJP, which will convert it into a mega-war in which the Opposition will be outflanked on all fronts: cadres, resources, money and message.

Instead, the Opposition must craft a strategy that allows it to pin the BJP down in hundreds of small, local, electoral contests. There is no doubt that the BJP has replaced the Congress as the only pan-India national party, with some of the southern states offering the last ramparts. But the Opposition cannot afford to get distracted by this new reality. Or hope that somehow a leader will emerge from its ranks who will have national resonance like that of Modi. It has a much better chance at falling back on scores of regional leaders who can bring home pockets where the BJP is still much weaker than them.

This is why Rahul Gandhi erred in the Karnataka campaign by saying he was ready to be the prime minister if the Congress emerged as the largest party in 2019. Not only did it annoy the other regional parties; it brought microscopic scrutiny back on him.

Leave the idle whispers of who will lead — Mamata, Mayawati, Sharad Pawar, Deve Gowda or Rahul — to the drawing rooms of Delhi. The Opposition has a job to do.

- Barkha Dutt is an award-winning journalist and author
  
COMMENT:
Nowhere in the article there is any mention about what the opposition has to offer to the people.  Namely, in what way will they improve the lives of the people from what they have today.  Will the social harmony improve?  Will the children get a better education?  Will the roads be better?  Will there be more access to electricity?  Will India make more contribution to the world community in economic terms?  Will India’s advantage in soft power be better exploited?  And, many such questions.

In democracies sometimes elections are contested on a single issue.  In 1977, the people at large just wanted that those who had indulged in the excess of the Emergency of the previous two years, to be defeated.  However, they also expected that the new dispensation would give good governance.  And when this expectation was belied, the people brought back those who made them suffer in 1975 to 1977, with a hope that the lessons have been learnt and the horrible mistakes of the past would not be made.  In a sense, it was a case of choosing the better of the two evils.

In the present case, Dutt’s starting point is that Modi is unadulterated evil.  (Okay, I am exaggerating, but not by much.)  Hence she is saying anything will be better, and so there is no need to present an agenda to the people and answer thye questions posed above.  Perhaps she thinks that once the ‘evil’ is done away with, the new dispensation will deal with the questions, and India will once again be a land of milk and honey.  However, the people can decide on this when it is clear what the agenda of the opposition is, and the individuals who will take a lead in implementing the agenda.  Mere pious thoughts will not be sufficient.  People voted on a single issue in 1977, and the results are known.

For Dutt to implore that the opposition to Modi should go into the next election without any clear announcement about the leadership, including the one who is likely to be the prime minister, raises the following question:  for whom will it be the land of milk and honey?  For the people at large?  Oor for the old elite, that is also variously called Lutyen’s elite, the Delhi Darbaris, the Nehruvian elite?  So, instead of merely saying ‘defeat Modi’, would it not be better for these elite to say how the country will be better off without Modi as the prime minister?

I am sure people are looking towards Dutt and Sardesai to enlighten them on the subject.