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Series of Events unleashed by Article 370 removal could lead to India’s takeover of PoK

Author:
Publication: Drishtikone.com
Date: August 8, 2019
URL:      https://drishtikone.com/2019/08/series-of-events-unleashed-by-article-370-removal-could-lead-to-indias-takeover-of-pok/

With the revocation of Article 370, India has united Kashmir with India.  Now, all talk of disputes and line of control etc is gone.  And, if we look at things, many steps were leading upto this point.

As Pakistan is left with no real cards to play with, it has announced the path of self-destruction.

#Article370 may be the starting point of a series of events that could lead to India's takeover of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.

The main question that we need to ponder on is – was Article 370 the destination of Modi policy?

What if the real game starts from this point on?!

As was the case with the situation after the 1998 Nuclear blasts by India, Pakistan was pushed by its own narrative and announcements into a corner where it had no alternative but to do its own nuke blasts.  Now, India’s over-riding objective was to bring out the nuclear proliferation going on in and by Pakistan rampantly.  And, Pakistan played into that game.  From them on, the “Nuclear bazaar” of AQ Khan was brought out and Khan arrested and humiliated across the world.  And things changed.

This is a similar situation.

People in Pakistan – including their PM – have been asking the question about what to do next.  And, what they actually end up doing is nothing short of preparation for war.  Diplomatic relations are taken off only when you are preparing for a full fledged war.

As the US prepares to leave Afghanistan and negotiates with Pakistan and Taliban to keep peace, Pakistan wants to extract its pound of flesh.  The way to do that would be to escalate tensions so much on the Indian side that any talk of helping on the Afghan side will be met with an invoice for money from the US.

And, Pakistan may even calculate – foolishly albeit, like 1965 and Kargil – that a small skirmish can achieve that.  Little realizing that there is no such thing as a “small skirmish” in Modi’s dictionary.  You try to do mischief and he may go the whole hog!

That is why a Spaniard analyst sitting in Vietnam who focuses on geostrategy and military balance of power between China and its opponents, has shared an interesting thread on Twitter.  His views make some sense to us at Drishtikone.

He starts off by stating what is obvious by now – that Pakistan is preparing for a massive insurgency, aka Terrorist operation.  This operation “on steroids” will be backed by military.  Or in other words – Kargil 2.0

And, apart from sending back the Indian Ambassador and not sending its own ambassador, Pakistan has also suspended the Samjhauta Express.  IN his address to the Joint session in Pakistan’s Parliament, the Prime Minister has already warned that a full-scale war can happen.  That would be catastrophic in many ways.  And this line is also being repeated by the Chief of Pakistan Army General Bajwa.

The head of Pakistan’s army, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, has also vowed his forces will “go to any extent” to support the people of Kashmir.

“The Pakistan army firmly stands by the Kashmiris in their just struggle to the very end,” he said. (source)

So, we are looking at a situation where Pakistan is itching for a Kargil 2.0 or 1965-2.0
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
 Its clear that #Pakistan plans a massive insurgency campaign on steroids against #India that would be backed by the military. India's response should be to retaliate with even greater force so that Pak has to pay an unbearable price for each of its actions.
7:49 AM - Aug 7, 2019

F. Jeffery @Natsecjeff
Source tells me Pakistan is planning a massive asymmetric warfare campaign against India. If decades ago Pakistan introduced the policy of “bleeding India through a thousand cuts”, this would be bleeding India through a million cuts. https://t.co/buCOGpY20S
August 6, 2019

F. Jeffery @Natsecjeff
NEW: Pakistan has shutdown its airspace for Indian flights and Pakistan Air Force and military has raised their alert level. Airspace ban to be FULLY implemented in once any flight presently flying over Pakistan is cleared.
3.33 AM August 7, 2019
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As we noted, this can become a full scale war very soon, if Pakistan keeps acting idiotically.  But what is interesting is that at this time, the image of Pakistani establishment and the nation as a whole is quite bad.  It is known in the world as to what Pakistan really offers to the global community – Terrorism – and everyone has had enough of it.

Given that scenario, India could turn a “skirmish” into an action that could end up in taking back Pakistan Occupied Kashmir.  And unlike Indira Gandhi or Lal Bahadur Shastri, Narendra Modi will not be in a mood to compromise or negotiate on that once India takes back what is its own.
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Aug 7, 2019
Replying to @IndoPac_Info
Such situation would be close to full out war in the Kashmir region and can easily escalate into a full war.

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
#Pakistan is actually playing into #India's game. Pak's insurgency & supportive military actions will show Pak as the aggressor and India's retake of Pak occupied Kashmir in retaliation for such actions will be totally accepted. India already gamed the whole scenario.
8:33 AM - Aug 7, 2019
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As CPEC route is just 80 km from the erstwhile LoC, India would love to disrupt that road and make it completely ineffective.  That would certainly bring China into the conflict.  Which is what the Pakistanis are probably hoping on happening.
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Aug 7, 2019
Replying to @IndoPac_Info
Thread: #Pakistan is behaving exactly as #India expected after the abrogation of article 370. They either do it or they lose face. India is doing the moves, Pak is only reacting and doesn't have any good choices. It's a lose - lose situation for Pak. https://tribune.com.pk/story/2029195/1-prepared-go-extent-fulfill-obligations-kashmiri-people-pakistan-army/ …

Prepared to go to any extent to fulfill our obligations to Kashmiri people: Army
Pakist­an Army firmly stands by the Kashmi­ris in their just strugg­le to the very end, says milita­ry leader­ship
tribune.com.pk

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Thread: If things go as expected, with heavy warfare in Kashmir, we could expect that #India will cut off the CPEC corridor road from #China into Pak, which runs through Kashmir and at one point, it's only 80 Km from the LOC. Look at the map 👇👇👇
9:44 AM - Aug 7, 2019
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In the events that India does this takeover – India could get a direct route to Afghanistan from India and thus become a player in what is happening in Afghanistan.  This will also present the US with an alternative route to Afghanistan.  Something that the Pakistanis have been milking and using as leverage all the time.  This, in itself, could make US side with India.  For, US is quite fed up with Pakistan.  And, for India, this would be an opportunity to ensure that Taliban does not get an upper hand.

We may be looking at Indian Army playing a role in beating back Taliban.

In the current situation, however, if Taliban comes in Afghanistan, and do the takeover, they will divert their fighters to India which will hit India even more.  That is why India will be more than willing to take the battle to Taliban’s home and beat it there!
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Aug 7, 2019
Replying to @IndoPac_Info
Thread: In such full scale warfare scenario, the end game could easily be a full or significant Indian takeover of #Pakistan occupied Kashmir and a direct land route from #India to #Afghanistan, something that India needs to counter the Pak-Taliban efforts in Afghanistan.

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Thread: And to complicate #Pakistan plans for full insurgency warfare against #India, now this👇 I smell coordinated #US-#India moves - US asked Pak to show tangible & satisfactory actions against banned organisations to support its case on the FATF https://www.dawn.com/news/1498540

Actions against banned outfits key to exiting FATF list: US
A US delegation visiting Islamabad for an independent assessment meets the PM’s aide on finance.
dawn.com
10:07 AM - Aug 7, 2019
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Aug 7, 2019
Replying to @IndoPac_Info
Thread: Not even need to say that in such case of #India taking over just the eastern part of POK & connecting with #Afghanistan, then #US no longer needs #Pakistan to access Afghanistan & Pakistan loses all the cards they've been playing with #USA. That alone is very big.

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Thread: People need to understand that #India is playing a big game here. Article 370 is only one part. The #US withdraw from #Afghanistan will bring tons of Jihadis into Kashmir, so India needs to turn the tables on that big time. What used to work, no longer works.
10:59 AM - Aug 7, 2019
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Aug 7, 2019
Replying to @IndoPac_Info
Thread: What this means is that #India has no choice but to take the initiative & change the Kashmir situation for good. Article 370 was the first step. Once the situation allows, taking over the eastern part of the POK and connecting with Afghanistan is imperative or Afg falls.

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Thread: To illustrate my point about #India's need to change the situation in Kashmir & to help #Afghanistan, read my thread on the connections between the Taliban & #China. Allowing the Taliban to take over Afg also means to open the door to China.     https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1157956399306928128?s=20 …

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
The odd couple: #China's deepening relationship with the Taliban - China hedges with all sides, it may have supplied weapons to the Taliban https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/the-odd-couple-china-s-deepening-relationship-with-the-taliban-28712 …
11:17 AM - Aug 7, 2019
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This is not a simple war game that is happening.  With the revocation of Article 370, India is looking at major geostrategic shifts!  Shifts that will change the future for many thousands of years.  And its genesis lies in the removal of Article 370.  Contrary to many who believe that this bill and action was an end to itself, the fact is that this could be the beginning of a larger game.  And this is where the mettle of Doval and Modi will come into play.
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Aug 7, 2019
Replying to @IndoPac_Info
Thread: This article is proof of what I've been saying in this thread. #US is finalizing an agreement with the Taliban to exit Afg & with the Taliban in control in Afg, #India had to make a big strategic move of which, article 370 was the first step.  https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/news-analysis-afghanistan-shadow-over-indias-kashmir-move/article28832606.ece …

News analysis | Afghanistan shadow over India’s Kashmir move
Imran Khan’s silence shows that Pakistan is waiting for the Taliban to seal the deal with the U.S.
thehindu.com

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
India’s move to end the special status for Jammu and Kashmir indicates that the government is bracing for serious geo-strategic shifts that will unfold in South Asia over the next few months. Though the domestic reasons for ending the special status was presented through.....
6:23 PM - Aug 7, 2019
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Aug 7, 2019
Replying to @IndoPac_Info
...... a detailed analysis of the negative effects that the Article 370 had for Kashmir, the real reason for this hurried makeover lies in the international context. Taliban says that an agreement with US has been finalized and both sides are expected to sign the agreement......

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
.... before this weekend. Earlier, the Taliban wanted the US to withdraw in 9 months but the US, after multiple shifts, settled for 15 months. That means the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan will be the major campaign card for President Donald Trump in the November 2020 election.
6:23 PM - Aug 7, 2019
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Aug 7, 2019
Replying to @IndoPac_Info
The implication of this peace agreement between the Taliban & US will be felt across South Asia and in the West Asian region. This will be a ready acknowledgement that the Bush & Obama’s Afghanistan policy of the last two decades failed and the Taliban will be the winner.

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
This is the context in which India is firming up its grip in Kashmir. The issue, however, is if Pakistan would like to go down the path of promoting cross-border militancy, as it did in the 1990s when the Lashkar-e-Taiba became a major terror force backed by masters in Islamabad.
6:23 PM - Aug 7, 2019
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Aug 7, 2019
Replying to @IndoPac_Info
Thread: From The Hindu @the_hindu
Just in: #Pakistan to take #Kashmir issue to U.N. Security Council; downgrades diplomatic relations with India, suspends bilateral trade. Via @Ayush59505784

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Breaking: #Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi is scheduled to visit #China for some critical discussions with Chinese leadership. We can easily guess what those discussions are about. Via @Ayush59505784
8:16 PM - Aug 7, 2019
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Aug 8, 2019
Replying to @IndoPac_Info and 2 others
Thread: Statements from the #US House Foreign Affairs Committee @HouseForeign Chairman @RepEliotEngel
 & Senator @SenatorMenendez in response to the steps India has taken to revise the status of Jammu & Kashmir: Support for democracy & a warning to #Pakistan 👍
Via @code_blind

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Thread: The #Indian Army warns #Pakistan against taking disruptive course on Kashmir, says: "Cost will be prohibitive for you. We are fully prepared and will make sure Pakistan pay a huge price this time". The words of the Northern commander of the Indian army.
6:14 AM - Aug 8, 2019
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Replying to @IndoPac_Info and 6 others
Thread: #Pakistan downgrades diplomatic relations with #India - China & Pak react sharply to New Delhi’s revocation of Kashmir’s special status. “Pakistan’s sharp reactions to Indian decision to alter the status of Jammu & Kashmir is along expected lines. https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/article/pakistan-downgrades-diplomatic-relations-with-india/ …

Asia Times | Pakistan downgrades diplomatic relations with India | Article
Beijing and Islamabad react sharply to New Delhi’s revocation of Kashmir’s special status
asiatimes.com

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
"The two sides are now in a precarious situation pregnant with huge escalatory potential. This is an opportunity freelance terror organizations and those supported by state actors could make use of in order to bring the two sides to the brink of yet another crisis”
10:03 AM - Aug 8, 2019
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Replying to @IndoPac_Info
While India expected Pak to react, it hoped for a muted reaction from China. But since India bifurcated the state & declared the eastern part of Ladakh a union territory without a legislature, China saw it as a way to change the status quo of a territory it controls since 1962.

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
“India continued to undermine China’s territorial sovereignty by unilaterally changing its domestic law,” FM spokeswomen Chunying said. She said the scrapping of Article 370 was “unacceptable & will have no effect & urged India to “strictly abide by relevant agreements.”
10:17 AM - Aug 8, 2019
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Indian PM Narendra Modi is indicating that there is no need to be triumphant at this moment.  For, we are looking at a “long road” ahead.  Which in itself is an indication that we are looking at a much larger game.
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Replying to @IndoPac_Info
India pushed back by pointing out that it was an “internal matter” and it did not comment on “the internal affairs of other countries and expected as much” from them.

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Thread: PM Narendra #Modi advised his ministerial colleagues that there is no room for triumphalism and reminded them that it’s now that the heavy lifting begins - That's right, Article 370 was only the first step of a long process  https://indianexpress.com/article/india/kashmir-special-status-no-chest-thumping-please-long-haul-ahead-pm-modis-message-to-party-5887113/ …

No chest-thumping please, long haul ahead: PM Modi’s message to party
The Prime Minister, according to this source, reminded his ministerial colleagues that being the ruling party, BJP leaders should be aware of the “repercussions” of such a decision and its effect on...
indianexpress.com
10:36 AM - Aug 8, 2019
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IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Replying to @IndoPac_Info
Thread: PM Narendra #Modi advised his ministerial colleagues that there is no room for triumphalism and reminded them that it’s now that the heavy lifting begins - That's right, Article 370 was only the first step of a long process  https://indianexpress.com/article/india/kashmir-special-status-no-chest-thumping-please-long-haul-ahead-pm-modis-message-to-party-5887113/ …

No chest-thumping please, long haul ahead: PM Modi’s message to party
The Prime Minister, according to this source, reminded his ministerial colleagues that being the ruling party, BJP leaders should be aware of the “repercussions” of such a decision and its effect on...
indianexpress.com

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Thread: PM Mody to Address the Nation on #Kashmir after he signed on the J&K Reorganization order. This should be very interesting. Via @Ayush59505784
11:18 AM - Aug 8, 2019
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The real issue is that Pakistan will play into the diplomatic and perception game of India and actually come off as an aggressor.  Something that India wants to show.  That will help India take over PoK as a result without much reaction from the world.

This is the ideal scenario for India.  A scenario where Pakistan acts belligerent and attacks India.  So, India can do what is needed on the PoK front.
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Franklin D. Roosevelt 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇳 @FrankDRoose07
Aug 7, 2019
Replying to @IndoPac_Info
Then they'll help indian to capture POK.

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Pak is actually playing into India's game. Pak will be seen as the aggressor and India's retake of Pak occupied Kashmir will be totally accepted. India already gamed the whole scenario.
8:11 AM - Aug 7, 2019
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Franklin D. Roosevelt 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇳 @FrankDRoose07
Aug 7, 2019
Replying to @IndoPac_Info
Even if india don't capture pok
Limited war will also be catastrophic to pakistan whose economy is running on ventilator of loans.

IndoPacific_SCS_Info @IndoPac_Info
Yes, they can't afford it, but that has never held them from playing the game.
8:34 AM - Aug 7, 2019
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Finally, even if nothing comes out of India’s campaign against Pakistan after the massive terrorist insurgency backed by Pakistani military – India could make Pakistan pay heavily in terms of financial and economic cost.  That would be catastrophic for Pakistan which is at the brink of disaster anyway!

The complete dismemberment of Pakistan will be close behind thereafter.

That would be a complete Checkmate – शह और मात.
 
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