HVK Archives: Hung again
Hung again - The Times of India
Editorial
()
11 October 1996
Title : Hung Again
Author : Editorial
Publication : The Times of India
Date : October 11, 1996
Instability would appear to be the fate of Uttar Pradesh
politics. Since 1989 it has had close to half a dozen
governments run by as many political parties and combina-
tions. The uncertain verdict of the just-concluded
assembly polls has only added to the confusion. The
Bharatiya Janata Party has emerged the leader of the
pack, but without crossing that crucial half-way mark.
The other two political formations - the United Front and
the Bahujan Samaj Party-Congress combine - are locked in
a neck-and-neck race, all of which makes a stable govern-
ment that much more of a difficult proposition. Barely
six months ago, at the time of the Lok Sabha elections,
the BJP had appeared set to clinch an outright victory;
it had a clear lead in 236 assembly segments. Had that
trend continued, the BJP should have installed its gov-
ernment in Lucknow by now. But two significant develop-
ments since then appear to have changed the complexion of
the political scene in U.P. The first was the coming
together of the BSP and the Congress party. Although the
upper caste-dominated U.P. Congress had always relied on
the support of the scheduled castes to see it through in
elections, it was a reversal of equations this time
around with the BSP's Ms Mayawati calling the shots. The
second was the entry into the U.F. of the Ajit Singh-led
Bharatiya Kisan Kamgar Party (BKKP.) If the former lent
strength to the Congress, the latter, in combination with
the Tiwari Congress, somewhat boosted the chances of the
coalition. The S.P. and the BSP had polled one-fifth of
the votes each during the Lok Sabha elections, as opposed
to the BJP's one-third. Clearly, the new alliances have
hurt the BJP.
The aftermath of the U.P. elections promises a race for
power similar to what we saw at the Centre after the Lok
Sabha elections. A hung assembly in U.P. opens up the
likelihood of horse-trading which should prepare us for a
prolonged period of uncertainty. In the event of the
single largest party being invited to form the govern-
ment, the BJP leader, Mr Kalyan Singh, may face a fate
similar to what awaited Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, unless
he is able to split the ranks of his opponents. Merely
gathering the support of the independents will not do, as
they are not large enough in numbers. If the BJP fails
to form a government, the more likely scenario is that of
Ms Mayawati as chief minister with the U.F. constituents
reluctantly going along. This seems to be the gameplan of
the Congress and the BSP as well. It is almost certain
that the Congress will use its support to the U.F. gov-
ernment at the Centre as a bargaining chip for a return
favour in U.P. The United Front would like it the most if
Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav were to form a government in
Lucknow and the least if the BJP were to do so. The
latter, besides disproving its claim to have won the
popular mandate in the Lok Sabha elections, will also
threaten the cohesion of its coalition. This might well
force the U.F., despite certain resistance from Mr Mu-
layam Singh Yadav, to consider the second best option - a
government led by Ms Mayawati.
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