HVK Archives: With UF as the enemy, the BJP does not need friends
With UF as the enemy, the BJP does not need friends - The Observer
Posted By Ashok V Chowgule (ashokvc@giasbm01.vsnl.net.in)
October 30, 1996
An agglomeration of groups like the United Front (UF) has
always been defeated by its own goals, This was as true
in 1979 as in 1990. The Congress Party had to make no
move except to watch as the Morarji Desai and the V. P.
Singh governments destroyed themselves. While in 1977-
79, the Congress was the only opposition to the govern-
ment,.by 1990 the BJP began to share that space. Today,
the BJP is in the same position as the Congress was
during 1977-79: all it needs to do is wait patiently
while its opponents In government destroy themselves.
While the All-India Congress Committee (AICC) under P. V.
Narasimha Rao was in a clearly subordinate position to
the UF - obsessed as it was with saving Mr Rao and his
son from jail - it was expected that the AICC under
Sitaram Kesri would reclaim lost opposition space for the
Congress by differentiating it from the UF. The appoint-
ment of two "UF lobby" members - Ahmed Patel and Ghulam
Nabi Azad - as office bearers and the latter's frank
confession of helplessness vis-a-vis the Gowda government
has once again helped to give the BJP a monopoly over the
opposition space.
The contempt shown by the UP to the suggestion that it
support a Congress-BSP government In Uttar Pradesh shows
that the calculation on Raisina Hill is that the Congress
may be able to give a few feeble barks, but it is tooth-
less.
While moralists will applaud Mr Azad's confession of his
party's weakness, others within the CWC are dismayed.
"Even if we cannot face another poll now, it is not wise
to advertise this fact and thus reveal Our weakness," a
Congress Working Committee (CWC) member said. "This will
only result in our being ignored and becoming even weak-
er." However, the Kashmir politician appears to be going
by the game plan of his group, which is to prepare for a
formal alliance with the UP, first by joining the Deve
Gowda government and thereafter fighting the Polls to-
gether. The calculation is that such a front can trounce
the BJP.
However, both by conceding the opposition space entirely
to the BJP and because of the overkill witnessed in
Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh, the UF-Congress alliance may
be creating the conditions for a popular backlash of
support for the saffron party. The UF,s policies are
clearly being driven by the ideologies of the Left - the
same individuals who attacked the President of India for
first calling upon A. B. Vajpayee to form the government.
According to the Left, the BJP Is today an untouchable
that has to be driven away from power by any means, even
of the kind employed by governor Romesh Bhandari.
If the BJP Is prevented from coming to office - or is
sought to be toppled by undemocratic means - the in-
fluence of the fanatics within that party will grow. As
a result, the party may focus not on the legislatures but
on the streets, whipping up agitations and provoking
confrontations. With the BJP on the streets and the Left
parties calling for fiscal anarchy, the Deve Gowda gov-
ernment is likely to lose public support.
Given the Congress policy of tailing the UP, most of the
benefit from a loss of public support to the Gowda gov-
ernment is likely to go to the BJP and putative allies
such as Lakshmi Parvathy in Andhra Pradesh and R. K.
Hegde in Karnataka.
While the conventional wisdom is that a BSP-BJP alliance
in U.P. will suit the UP in that it will prise the Con-
gress loose from the party of the Dalits, the fact is
that a BSP-BJP government may open up inquiries into the
Mulayam Singh regime's decisions and provide sufficient
dirt for prosecution. This may result in a shrinkage of
the Samajwadi Party base, in the same way as Mr Rao's
travails have hit the Congress or Laloo Prasad Yadav's
links to the fodder mafia have hit the Janata Dal.
Of course, a BSP-BJP government in UP can follow the
policy of the Manohar Joshi government in Maharashtra and
let sleeping scandals lie. While Gopinath Munde used to
be vocal about the links of the Congress with gangsters
while he was in opposition, he has shown little inclina-
tion as home minister to follow up on those charges.
However, Mr Kanshi Ram may not be as accommodating as Mr
Joshi and Mr Munde.
So far Kalyan Singh has succeeded in preventing a BSP-BJP
alliance. However, the knowledge that the MLAs of the
two parties are vulnerable to the siren call of Mr Yadav
and the desire to pay the UF-Congress back for what
happened in Gujarat may in the coming weeks result in the
BJP backing the BSP in UP. Governor Bhandari has shown
that the confidence reposed in him by Amar Singh - who
got him his transfer, has been well merited. However,
even he may hesitate to reject the bid of a group that
will have a comfortable majority in the UF assembly.
Time is running out for all the principals. Mr Kanshi
Ram's support base is vulnerable to intimidation and Mr
Yadav may be calculating that in a fresh poll, governor
Bhandari, Mr Tikait and assorted musclemen will be able
to prevent enough Dalits voting to give the SP the upper
hand. Thus, the BSP supremo may have to either agree to
a coalition government (instead of one with outside
support) or be ready to face a fresh poll under adverse
conditions. The BJP needs Mr Kanshi Ram's support base
to edge past the 220-mark in Parliament; so it may have
to decide to hold on to the Kalyan Singh thesis or come
to terms with the BSP.
As predicted, UP is emerging as a decisive factor in
national politics. In the next few weeks, two questions
may come up for an answer: will the Congress swallow its
hurt and support the proclamation of Central government
rule in UP? If so, a formal alliance with the UF appears
near. Second, will the BSP and the BJP stake a claim in
UP, and if so, will the governor dissolve the assembly
rather than allow the majority group to come to power?
If the answer to the first question is "no" and that to
the second "yes," the country appears headed for a return
to 1990. The constitutional contortions designed to keep
the BJP from power may then build up enough popular
support for that party to give It a fair chance at power.
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