HVK Archives: So near, yet so far?
So near, yet so far? - The Observer
Inder Malhotra
()
March 4, 1998
Title: So near, yet so far?
Author: Inder Malhotra
Publication: The Observer
Date: March 4, 1998
The outcome of the poll portends instability not only the Centre
but also in a number of states
The 12th Lok Sabha is well and truly hung. Indeed, even more so
than the previous one was. More important, whichever government
is formed m the next few days will be fragile and might well be
hoist with its own petard sooner than the actors on the political
stage perhaps realise. In short, the voting pattern in the
election has not at all been in conformity with the country's
perceived desire for stability. It is at least arguable that the
seeds of instability are stronger this time round and have been
scattered on rather fertile soil.
Merely to state the stark facts of life is to underscore both the
increasing fragmentation and the inflamed polarisation of the,
Indian polity. The BJP and its allies are within spitting
distance of victory but a clear majority is still out of their
grasp. South India's, especially Tamil Nadu's, contribution to
the BJP's kitty of about 250 seats is nothing short of
spectacular. But to say that it represents a saffron wave in the
south would be erroneous. The reality is Just the opposite. The
Hindutva party has ridden on the shoulders of Jayalalitha who has
succeeded in making short work of the DMK-Tamil Maanila Congress
combination.
In Karnataka, unlike in Tamil Nadu, where the BJP was conspicuous
by its sheer absence, but has now won two parliamentary seats,
the saffron party had a base of its own. Its impressive
expansion, principally at the expense of the Janata Dal and to a
limited extent at that of the Congress, owes a lot to Ramakrishna
Hegde. Such examples need not be multiplied. Suffice it to say
that in spite of being much larger than any of its allies, the
BJP's dependence on its allies is acute. What is more their
number is rather large.
The cumulative result of all this is that the two score
additional votes in the Lok Sabha that the BJP needs to muster a
majority and win a vote of confidence will not be easy to secure,
especially because these can come only from the motely crowd
charmingly called "independents and others".
All this does not mean that the BJP, along with its allies spread
across the country, should be denied an opportunity to try to
form a government. On the contrary, according to all norms of
political morality and constitutional propriety, the party led by
Atal Behari Vajpayee is entitled to the first crack at government
formation - But then, since the end of the Nehru era, sticking to
the straight and narrow path of propriety and democratic decency
has been considered an act of folly in this country. To capture
power by hook or by crook and then use it for personal, family,
factional or party advantage is all.
It is in this context that the sudden cry for "saving the country
>from communalism" by rigging up a government consisting of the
Congress and the United Front of whatever is left of it has to be
viewed. Since 1996 the shining armour of the secularist knights
has been tarnished more than somewhat. The hurried exodus of many
standard-bearers of socialism into the open arms of the BJP,
halted only by Sonia Gandhi's decision to jump into the electoral
fray, said it all.
Even so, the fact must be faced, and the BJP's top leaders ought
to ponder this, that large sections of the Indian population are
worried that the Hindutva party, once in power, might try to
impose unacceptable uniformity on a pluralist and diverse
country. The rout of the BJP and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, to say
nothing of the setback to the saffron brigade in Rajasthan,
combined with the tremendous surge of Mulayam Singh Yadav's
Samajwadi Party, is a better indicator of the mood of the Muslim
minority than the claim of the exit polls that 16 per cent
Muslims have switched their support to the BJP. This perhaps
explains why the magic figure of 272 has eluded the BJP.
However, when all is said and done the BJP's claim to form the
next government is overwhelmingly stronger than that of a
hurriedly formed Congress-UF combination. Sharad Pawar, who has
emerged as the most successful Congress leader next only to
Sonia, candidly said on Star TV that if the BJP secured 245 seats
or more, it must be asked to form the government. Strangely,
many of his colleagues, salivating at the thought of regaining
control of the government and all the perks this entails,
evidently do not agree with him. That is why they are quite
responsive to the frantic exertions of CPI(M) general secretary,
Harkishen Singh Surjeet, blessed by the United Front's Bhisham
Pitamaha, V P Singh.
The irony, however, is that to prop a government of this kind may
be even more difficult than a majority for the BJP-led coalition.
If the saffron party will have to court the likes of Haryana's Om
Prakash Chautala, try and visualise a government in which Mulayam
Singh Yadav, Laloo Yadav, Kanshi Ram, Ram Vilas Paswan,
Jayalalitha, Hegde, Mamata Banerjee et al sup at the same table.
But that apart, even from the narrow, opportunistic point of view
of both the United Front and the Congress it would be better to
allow the BJP to form a government and face the inevitable music.
The longevity of such a government will be in serious doubt. But,
if the BJP is kept at bay through murky manipulation by two
formations that have been heaping the worst abuse on each other
throughout the election campaign, the votaries of secularism must
know that in the election that would become unavoidable in less
than a year the country could give the BJP and its allies a two-
thirds majority.
Neither the country, nor President K R Narayanan can possibly
overlook that while the BJP formed all its alliances before the
elections and came clean before the voters, the Congress, having
brought down the Inder Gujral government in the first place, and
then lambasted the UP at the hustings, cannot possibly pretend
that it and the attenuated Front are "national allies" with a
right to rule.
It is the country's good fortune that it has In the person of
Narayanan a President who adheres to constitutional norms
impeccably.
Meanwhile, one more pertinent point needs to be made. Stability
may be the need of the hour. But the outcome of the poll
portends instability not only at the Centre but also in a number
of states. After the declination of the Janata Dal in its
erstwhile stronghold, Karnataka, the state chief minister, J H
Patel, is under relentless pressure to resign. In Bihar, Rabri is
in deep trouble. In Maharashtra chief minister Manohar Joshi bar,
made at least a cosmetic offer to quit. In Chennai, life is going
to be hard for M Karunanidhi because of the astonishing
resurgence of Jayalalitha.
Add to all this the, fact that there to a downturn in the economy
and it becomes clear what the new government in New Delhi will be
up against.
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