HVK Archives: We watched as they put test gear underground...
We watched as they put test gear underground... - The Indian Express
Robert Windrem
()
May 14, 1998
Title: We watched as they put test gear underground... they are
very good
Author: Robert Windrem
Publication: The Indian Express
Date: May 14, 1998
Despite a $27 billion budget and a galaxy of spy satellites, US
intelligence agencies failed to detect India's preparation for
the nuclear blasts. Why? US officials are blaming it on a leak to
New York Times.
Senior Intelligence and military officials say that India put its
nuclear-testing equipment underground in 1996 following a leak to
The New York Times that US spy satellites were monitoring that
nation's nuclear test site.
"There was a leak that we knew would have a reaction and it did,"
said one senior intelligence official. "We watched as they put
it underground ... We warned back then that India now had the
capability to test very quickly and predicted that we wouldn't be
able to tell.
The newspaper report ran on December 14, 1995, and quoted unnamed
government officials as saying satellites had recorded activity
in western India that suggested a test might he imminent. No
tests occurred and an Indian government spokesman said The Times
report was highly speculative.
As a result, said officials, India was able to very quickly and
subtly make preparations for the test of nuclear devices this
week.
In fact, National Security Advisor Sandy Berger told reporters
the United States still had no confirmation of the test nearly 12
hours after the blast occurred.
India calculated the orbits of spy satellites and then moved
equipment at times when they believed nothing was overhead.
India, several officials noted, has long had a space program and
is capable of determining what satellites are in which orbit.
They were in our blind spot, said a senior military official.
Moreover, intelligence officials note that the Indian nuclear-
weapons program is the most secretive of all Third World
programs. "We know more about the North Korean program than we do
about the Indian program."
The reasons, say officials in both Washington and New Delhi, are
varied. India has its own satellite-imaging capability, which
gives it an understanding of what can and can't be seen from
space.
Its nuclear program is kept separate from its military, which
like many militaries is prone to boasting and leading. And
unlike many programs, India's is not as dependent on outside
help. India has a large pool of trained nuclear scientists and
electrical engineers and an industrial infrastructure capable of
producing key equipment.
Much US intelligence on other nations nuclear programs is
derived from electronic eaves. dropping on sales of equipment
related to weapons development India has prevented Western
intelligence from recruiting spies in India by an aggressive
program of counterintelligence that includes surveillance and
even attempted recruitment of diplomats and suspected agents.
"They are very, very good," said one official. "They don't need
a lot of outside help."
"Remember,- this is the same country that produced the scientists
who designed the Pentium chips," added an official. "They can do
it on their own."
CIA officials say the United States did not know anything about
the tests until the announcement by Prime Minister Atal Behari
Vajpayee on television, four hours after the blasts. The
announcement even preceded analysis of the seismic data on the
tests. lot of people had their hair on fire., said one
intelligence official.
Intelligence officials say policy officials deserve some of the
blame for the tests, noting, that intelligence officials have
repeatedly warned that the BJP was serious about going nuclear.
Bill Richardson, the US ambassador to the United Nations, told
the Pakistani government last month that he was impressed with
BJP restraint when he met with party officials prior to his visit
to Islamabad.
The US charge d' affaires got his butt chewed by the Pakistanis
last nigh," an official noted, saying that the United States
should have known of the Indian plan and that the tests proved
there was little restraint in New Delhi.
South Asia has been on the back burner in this administration,
said another official: "They have taken Indian restraint for
granted and didn't take the BJP threats seriously."
As for why India tested the weapons now, the intelligence
assessment is that the tests were driven more by domestic
political concerns, rather than any action by Pakistan.
Meanwhile, US officials say that despite Pakistani claims that it
will match India's nuclear tests, there are no indications that
Pakistan is preparing for such a test.
The US has moved its satellites and increased electronic
surveillance to monitor Pakistan's nuclear test site in the
Chagai Hills in the desert of western Pakistan.
US officials expect that if the Pakistanis don't detonate a
nuclear device, they will probably again test the Ghauri missile,
which is nuclear-capable. Pakistan first tested the missile,
which it bought from North Korea, the first week of April.
(Robert Windrem is investigative producer of NBC News and author
of Critical Mass on the nuclear tensions in the subcontinent.
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