archive: Pakistan's Aakhri Badla a disaster
Pakistan's Aakhri Badla a disaster
Tavleen Singh
The Tribune
July 3, 1999
Title: Pakistan's Aakhri Badla a disaster
Author: Tavleen Singh
Publication: The Tribune
Date: July 3, 1999
IT'S now just over a month since our undeclared war began in Kargil
and, for the first time since then, there are now clear signs that
Pakistan faces defeat both militarily and diplomatically. In Delhi you
perceive this from the quiet jubilation that has crept into the voices
of senior ministers and officials. For obvious reasons nobody is
prepared to go on record to say anything but, if you guarantee
anonymity, people at the highest levels are prepared to analyse for
you the reasons why they believe that Pakistan has lost both the
battle and the war.
On the military front, last week, India inched its way towards
retaking the peak they call Tiger Hill. There was a bloody battle
fought in that area on Tuesday (June 29) in which the 2nd Rajputana
Rifles excelled themselves by taking a peak at 5,750 metres which had
been in Pakistani occupation for some time. The cost was heavy and
four officers, one junior commissioned officer and eight jawans lost
their lives. But, according to my information, Pakistan lost more than
40 men.
As the veils slowly begin to lift more and more information begins to
emerge about what Pakistan was trying to achieve through its incursion
across the Line of Control. The quagmire it now finds itself in was
apparently part of a plan that was codenamed Operation Aakhri Badla
(Operation Final Revenge) and the military objectives were to block
the Srinagar-Leh highway with the idea of eventually pushing Indian
troops out of Siachen. The wider objective was to occupy positions
that would help ingress into the Kashmir Valley and that could then be
used as negotiating points whenever talks finally begin.
This military objective was thwarted, according to my sources in
Delhi, because Pakistan had not expected India to respond as
aggressively as it did. When viewed from Islamabad Delhi must have
looked in bad shape. What with our constantly squabbling politicians,
a weak government which even had the grace to fall and with the fact
that elections are always moments when political leaders lose interest
in national security in favour of more personal objectives.
When you start asking questions in Delhi's corridors of power all
kinds of information emerges that often contradicts accepted wisdom in
the media. so, although we in the Press have put it about that a major
intelligence failure led to the intruders managing to get into our
territory in the first place my investigations reveal that the failure
was more to do with military complacency than failed intelligence. My
sources were emphatic about this but added that even if there was some
initial military complacency the situation was quickly rectified. The
first intruders are now believed to have crossed the Line of Control
in April and by the first week of May there was already a response
from our side. By the last week of that month the Air Force started
bombing the peaks.
Again, contrary to Pakistan's claims that the men who crossed into
Indian territory were only Mujahideen there is now increasing evidence
that our soldiers were fighting regular Pakistani troops. An estimated
four battalions drawn from the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh
Northern Light Infantry regiments. So, where did the Islamic warriors
come in? Apparently, only as armed porters.
At the highest levels in Delhi now there is optimism that Pakistan
will realise sooner rather than later that Operation Aakhri Badla has
been a disaster and that it's time to cut their losses and withdraw to
lick their wounds.
What causes the mood to be even more optimistic in Delhi is the fact
that our military successes have been backed up by some pretty
impressive diplomatic victories. When the trouble began there was
initially some concern that Pakistan's old best friends - China and
the USA - would give it the international credibility that it so
desperately needed to justify its violation of the Line of Control.
But, some aggressive diplomacy on the part of the Indian government
resulted in the USA openly asking Pakistan to desist from its
activities and in China deciding to remain neutral despite Pakistan's
best efforts to get it to come out on its side.
The fact that Nawaz Sharif decided to cut his trip to Beijing short by
more than five days, last week, came as the icing on the cake. In the
words of a senior minister who requested anonymity, "Never before, in
the 50 years that the Kashmir problem has been with us, has Pakistan
been so isolated internationally as it is today".
So, where do we go from here? Will Kashmir become a subject for
discussion when the UN General Assembly meets in September? Will the
fighting in Kargil end sooner rather than later? The answers can only
be vague but people I talked to expressed the hope that we could see
an end to the fighting as soon as next month. As for the United
Nations, Delhi appears to be quite confident that even if Kashmir does
get raised the main issue will be the intrusion across the Line of
Control.
The gloom then, that has hung like a pall over Delhi for several weeks
now, is slowly beginning to lift. Ironically, considering that Mr
Vajpayee's government now only has caretaker status, it is beginning
to look better than it ever did in its 13-month tenure. It has handled
the worst crisis we have faced in many years with a confidence and
skill that has been quite unexpected when you consider that it nearly
fell because the price of onions went up.
It looks even better when you contrast the behaviour of its ministers
with the rantings and hysteria of senior Congress leaders. They
continue to demand a special session of the Rajya Sabha without fully
explaining what will be achieved by it. If we go by the standards of
parliamentary debate that we have seen in recent times all that we are
likely to get out of a special session is recriminations, cacophony
and the usual pattern of walkouts. If opposition leaders believe that
the government has failed in handling the crisis in Kargil they need
to make some specific charges. These can be made without wasting time
and money on a special session of Parliament.
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