archive: Fruits Of Kargil: New World Order Favours A Strong India
Fruits Of Kargil: New World Order Favours A Strong India
Romesh Diwan
The Statesman
July 1, 1999
Title: Fruits Of Kargil: New World Order Favours A Strong India
Author: Romesh Diwan
Publication: The Statesman
Date: July 1, 1999
THE Kargil skirmish is the result of a long-planned and well-executed
invasion by Pakistan's army across the line of control. The terrain is
difficult at an elevation of 15,000 feet with high ridges. Invaders
have an initial advantage; their encampments are located on high
ridges about 6 km from Pakistani territory. Indian forces are
confronted with an invading force of well-trained, well-armed
Pakistani army regulars and experienced mercenaries-cum-terrorists of
Afghan war vintage. The invading forces comprise Pakistani army
regulars, mercenaries belonging to the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, declared
an international terrorist organisation by the US, the
Lashkar-e-Toiba, the militant wing of the Markaz Dawa Al Irshad and
the Al Badr, made up of Afghan mercenaries, and terrorists from Osman
bin Laden's Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, also known as Tehrik-e-Jihad or
Al Qaeda.
The manoeuvrability of the Indian troops and aircraft is restricted
because the Indian government does not want the conflict to escalate.
The Kargil operation is the most complex and difficult
counter-insurgency operation ever undertaken anywhere in the world.
Indian forces are slowly, but surely, clearing infiltrators'
encampments.
MILITARY MIGHT
Judging from the cowardly and barbaric torture of captured Indian
soldiers it is clear that the Pakistan army is losing the battle. In
the given circumstances, however, it will take a long time to flush
out the infiltrators completely.
The reaction of major international powers is a crucial factor. For
the time being the US and its western allies, have recognised that the
infiltration constitutes an invasion by Pakistan and that India is
within its right to oust these invaders from its territory. Russia, as
usual is openly supporting India. China is not supporting Pakistan's
position. The Pakistan army is capable and irrational, and willing to
escalate the conflict, which cannot be concluded swiftly, into an open
war. If the conflict drags on it is uncertain whether or not these
powers will maintain their pro-India position.
With the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the USSR
the world order is no more bipolar, but is dominated by the US. The US
has displayed its military might since. During the Cold War, China was
the emerging regional power in Asia, India being another possible
regional power. Chinese national interests required it to keep India
weak. It did so by providing Pakistan military assistance, thus
setting it up as a counterbalance, and legitimacy as well as economic
benefits to Indian communists who supported pro-China and anti-India
policies - the "aging communists" to use CR Irani's thoughtful phrase.
Moreover, since the USSR supported India, the US and its allies
followed their imperialist instincts to keep India weak. Towards this
end it provided military aid to Pakistan while its propaganda
establishment disseminated the notion that Pakistan was India's equal.
Pakistan thus got military support from both communist China and the
imperialist US; the Indian army in Kargil today is thus facing both
American Stinger missiles and Chinese rockets. The US also promoted
the RNI (resident non-Indian) elite by instilling in them their
western ideologies. This RNI class initiated and maintained "political
correctness" which has weakened India and can be considered
responsible for the present problem. Keeping India weak by harping on
divisive issues, IMF-type reforms, and promoting Congress servility
has been the hallmarks of the anti-national attitudes of the RNI elite
for which the US has rewarded them with legitimacy, financial grants,
and paid visits to the US.
BETTER DIALOGUE
In the last decade the new world order has been changing and is very
different from what it was a decade ago. China is emerging as a world
power while Russia has become irrelevant. The superiority of the US
and its Nato allies has made it so confident that it bombed Yugoslavia
without consulting the the UN. Its objectives were imperialist. Though
unstated, these were clear: "might is right", the US will always
prevail; it required humiliating China and Russia and that the bombing
tried to accomplish. Such is the arrogance of power.
The success of the new world order is connected to US corporations'
need to have access to world markets. However, the Yugoslavian bombing
has alienated a many countries, especially China and Russia.
Anti-American attitudes don't help US corporations to get access to
markets. The US, therefore, can't afford anti-Americanism to get out
of hand in India as well. The US has also realised that they need to
contain China; both because of its growing strength and its
estrangement from the US. US national interest, therefore, requires
making India a counterbalance to China, particularly now that India
also has nuclear capability; at the minimum it does not want India to
get closer to China. For both economic and security reasons, a strong
India is now in the US's interest. These two factors explain why the
US government appreciates India's perspective, and action, in the
Kargil area today; a perception that is very unusual given its past
habits and practices.
China's national interests in this changing world order are also
favourable to a strong India. A powerful US and its security pact with
Japan is against China's national interests. Yet China is in no
position to take on the US directly. A strong and supportive India
could further its national interest. That may explain why China has
stayed quiet and has not openly supported Pakistan. It also explains
Jaswant Singh's perception of a new willingness to develop a better
dialogue.
WISE DECISION
In this emerging world order, economics and security are integrated.
Therefore, both the US and China who previously found a weak India in
their national interest now recognise that their own national
interests are better served by a strong India. If these realities make
sense, external conditions are now favourable for India to develop
strong security positions. India is fortunate that Mr Atal Behari
Vajpayee is its Prime Minister at this juncture. One can't compliment
him enough on his wisdom; his insights, instincts and understanding
has put India on the path to greater strength.
The emerging scenario vindicates Pokhran as a very wise decision.
Vajpayee is also tackling the India's internal weakness. Last year
when he formed a government he had a motley coalition, an
irresponsible Opposition, an anti-national and hostile media, an
unsupportive President, a non-functioning, unfriendly bureaucracy and
a divisive intellectual elite. Thirteen months later, he has coalesced
the coalition into a National Democratic Alliance, earned respect from
many of these hostile groups and hammered home a concern for
nationalist issues. Most of India's internal weakness remain, but a
move to remove them has now been initiated. If the nationalist forces
can move forward, Kargil, and the loss of so much Indian blood, may
yet turn out to be a blessing in disguise.
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