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archive: Prevent Pakistan from using militancy as second front

Prevent Pakistan from using militancy as second front

A N Dar
The Free Press Journal
July 2, 1999


    Title: Prevent Pakistan from using militancy as second front
    Author: A N Dar
    Publication: The Free Press Journal 
    Date: July 2, 1999 
    
    How, long it will take one cannot at present say but it should be
    clear by now that Pakistan's invasion across the Line of Control will
    ultimately end in Indian victory.  This will be done by India's
    military force, the unity of our stand and the overwhelming opposition
    of the international community.  But, while working for victory, India
    must not relax.
    
    Pakistan is not going to leave it at that.  If its military adventure
    is beaten off, it will return to the tactics with which it is better
    acquainted, war by proxy, in other words, militancy.  India must in
    the months ahead be wary of increased militancy in Jammu and Kashmir,
    Punjab, the border areas of Himachal and the north-east.  To overlook
    this danger will be more dangerous than being caught as we were
    unawares of the intrusion in Kargil.
    
    In Pakistan's book of military tactics, militancy in the areas in and
    around Kashmir has prime importance' While LoC was being broken open
    and intruded into to capture Indian territory, Pakistan also wanted to
    create chaos by militancy.  There is already a view that after the
    Kargil war began, acts of militancy, catching at soft targets, using
    minefields, disrupting the movement of forces on the move, targeting
    civilians and shooting down pro-India politicians has increased.
    
    While fighting in Kargil and Drass forms one front, Pakistan wants to
    snipe at the underbelly of the logistics by creating civilian scare. 
    It wants to create civil uncertainty and lead to fear among the
    civilian population so that orderly governance is not possible.  This
    too is part of warfare.
    
    The best way to gain an upper hand is to create civilian disturbance. 
    Unfortunately in this, the Kashmiri separatists under the banner of
    the Hurriyat have tried to give a hand in this.  It may not have
    succeeded to the extent it wanted but it is doing its best.  It has
    tried to organise hartals and demonstrations against the Indian action
    in the Kargil area.
    
    This in a way means supporting Pakistani intruders.  During the peak
    days of the militancy the complaint among the secessionists was that
    Pakistan was not fulfilling its part by causing an invasion in one of
    the border areas so that India's capacity to fight them could be
    blunted.
    
    Many of the separatists were greatly disappointed that Pakistan did
    not intervene militarily at the time.  Their attempts to cause
    demonstrations now is meant to give moral support to Pakistani
    invasion and make it out that the people favour Pakistan.
    
    India should guard against disruption by separatists through acts of
    militancy.  Militancy is Pakistan's second front after the Kargil war.
    
    Militancy can take shape in many areas.  There can for instance be
    more acts of militancy in Jammu.  This will be a way of creating
    disruption in Kashmir's lifelink because Jammu falls on the road to
    the valley.  Disruption in Jammu and Udhampur will make it easy to
    disrupt the land lifelink over Banihal which connects Jammu and
    therefore the rest of India with the valley of Kashmir and beyond to
    Baramulla, Drass, Kargil and beyond.  Every militant act will help
    Pakistan, be, it land mines, catching the soft targets on the roadside
    and making life difficult for civilians in villages and cities.  In
    this the civilians have very little protection.
    
    Protecting them will be left to the civilian police but how much tan
    they do?  Just as cutting the lifelink of the Srinagar-Leh road was
    the Objective of invading Kargil, the militants would also like to cut
    off the Jammu-Srinagar road through individual militancy.  In a war
    situation this will be of great importance.
    
    This can be done so nearer winter so that the supply lines which are
    meant to keep the Valley supplied with necessities are disrupted. 
    When the snow is heavy in winter, the Banihal road gets blocked.  The
    militants would like to get it disrupted well before winter so that
    supplies do not build up in the valley.  The Indian authorities will
    have to see that this does not happen.
    
    The Kargil war has already disrupted the tourist traffic which had
    been booming in the past many months.
    
    This had kept a large proportion of the population engaged in fruitful
    activities.  Tourism has now dried up, creating unemployment in a
    large section of the population.  This unemployment can also swell the
    numbers of the unemployed and may increase the recruits the
    separatists need for they have nothing to do and fall prey to the call
    of the secessionists to go over to Pakistan, get trained in guerilla
    warfare and come back across the Line of Control.
    
    ISI men could even go across to create trouble in Himachal bordering
    Jammu and Kashmir.  This must all have been written in the ISI book of
    militancy.  ISI has even been trying to create disruption in the other
    troubled spot of north-east.
    
    If the Kargil war was to internationalise Kashmir, militancy within
    the state and outside would do as well.  When the Kargil war peters
    out, ISI would put all its strength into renewed militancy.  This is
    more fruitful for Pakistan because while Kargil has meant invasion,
    militancy in the state creates a picture of internal subversion.
    
    Pakistan was able to create disruption in Kashmir over ten years.  It
    will want to continue with its militancy in a more militant form. 
    Wherever it can, it will want to create communal hatred to weaken
    India.
    
    So while militarily Pakistan may be subdued around the peaks of Kargil
    and Drass, the threat of militancy will continue.  It may even
    increase.  This is Pakistan's best weapon and it will not let it go.
    
    It does, not expose Pakistan's intentions.  And it puts the militancy
    to acts by what Nawaz Sharif conveniently calls 'Kashmiri freedom
    fighters'.  It also gives Pakistan an opportunity to send out its
    appeal to the local population, with tales of supposed harsh, methods
    used by the armed forces, complaints against the police and use of the
    religious appeal.
    
    The Indian Government must be wary of this.  Trains going to Kashmir,
    buses plying in the state, disruption of communal peace and stories of
    attacks on women find a ready means to beat the government and provide
    propaganda material to Pakistan.  This also must he guarded against.
    
    Like the rest of the country Jammu and Kashmir is also going to take
    part in the elections.  At that time the people will once again be out
    in the streets, with the parties vying with each other to capture
    parliamentary power.  This is as it should be, but Pakistan would like
    to have this too disrupted
    
    Even if the war over the Kargil peaks cools down with the elimination
    of the Pakistani regulars and irregulars, the threat of militancy will
    not go away.
    
    If Pakistan feels beaten up militarily, its only hope for
    internationalising Kashmir will be to increase militancy.  If on the
    other hand the Kargil war does not end as soon as it is expected,
    Pakistan's attempt will be to take recourse to full-fledged militancy
    as in the nineties.  India will have to fight both.  This is challenge
    to Indian tactics and planning.
    



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