archive: Prevent Pakistan from using militancy as second front
Prevent Pakistan from using militancy as second front
A N Dar
The Free Press Journal
July 2, 1999
Title: Prevent Pakistan from using militancy as second front
Author: A N Dar
Publication: The Free Press Journal
Date: July 2, 1999
How, long it will take one cannot at present say but it should be
clear by now that Pakistan's invasion across the Line of Control will
ultimately end in Indian victory. This will be done by India's
military force, the unity of our stand and the overwhelming opposition
of the international community. But, while working for victory, India
must not relax.
Pakistan is not going to leave it at that. If its military adventure
is beaten off, it will return to the tactics with which it is better
acquainted, war by proxy, in other words, militancy. India must in
the months ahead be wary of increased militancy in Jammu and Kashmir,
Punjab, the border areas of Himachal and the north-east. To overlook
this danger will be more dangerous than being caught as we were
unawares of the intrusion in Kargil.
In Pakistan's book of military tactics, militancy in the areas in and
around Kashmir has prime importance' While LoC was being broken open
and intruded into to capture Indian territory, Pakistan also wanted to
create chaos by militancy. There is already a view that after the
Kargil war began, acts of militancy, catching at soft targets, using
minefields, disrupting the movement of forces on the move, targeting
civilians and shooting down pro-India politicians has increased.
While fighting in Kargil and Drass forms one front, Pakistan wants to
snipe at the underbelly of the logistics by creating civilian scare.
It wants to create civil uncertainty and lead to fear among the
civilian population so that orderly governance is not possible. This
too is part of warfare.
The best way to gain an upper hand is to create civilian disturbance.
Unfortunately in this, the Kashmiri separatists under the banner of
the Hurriyat have tried to give a hand in this. It may not have
succeeded to the extent it wanted but it is doing its best. It has
tried to organise hartals and demonstrations against the Indian action
in the Kargil area.
This in a way means supporting Pakistani intruders. During the peak
days of the militancy the complaint among the secessionists was that
Pakistan was not fulfilling its part by causing an invasion in one of
the border areas so that India's capacity to fight them could be
blunted.
Many of the separatists were greatly disappointed that Pakistan did
not intervene militarily at the time. Their attempts to cause
demonstrations now is meant to give moral support to Pakistani
invasion and make it out that the people favour Pakistan.
India should guard against disruption by separatists through acts of
militancy. Militancy is Pakistan's second front after the Kargil war.
Militancy can take shape in many areas. There can for instance be
more acts of militancy in Jammu. This will be a way of creating
disruption in Kashmir's lifelink because Jammu falls on the road to
the valley. Disruption in Jammu and Udhampur will make it easy to
disrupt the land lifelink over Banihal which connects Jammu and
therefore the rest of India with the valley of Kashmir and beyond to
Baramulla, Drass, Kargil and beyond. Every militant act will help
Pakistan, be, it land mines, catching the soft targets on the roadside
and making life difficult for civilians in villages and cities. In
this the civilians have very little protection.
Protecting them will be left to the civilian police but how much tan
they do? Just as cutting the lifelink of the Srinagar-Leh road was
the Objective of invading Kargil, the militants would also like to cut
off the Jammu-Srinagar road through individual militancy. In a war
situation this will be of great importance.
This can be done so nearer winter so that the supply lines which are
meant to keep the Valley supplied with necessities are disrupted.
When the snow is heavy in winter, the Banihal road gets blocked. The
militants would like to get it disrupted well before winter so that
supplies do not build up in the valley. The Indian authorities will
have to see that this does not happen.
The Kargil war has already disrupted the tourist traffic which had
been booming in the past many months.
This had kept a large proportion of the population engaged in fruitful
activities. Tourism has now dried up, creating unemployment in a
large section of the population. This unemployment can also swell the
numbers of the unemployed and may increase the recruits the
separatists need for they have nothing to do and fall prey to the call
of the secessionists to go over to Pakistan, get trained in guerilla
warfare and come back across the Line of Control.
ISI men could even go across to create trouble in Himachal bordering
Jammu and Kashmir. This must all have been written in the ISI book of
militancy. ISI has even been trying to create disruption in the other
troubled spot of north-east.
If the Kargil war was to internationalise Kashmir, militancy within
the state and outside would do as well. When the Kargil war peters
out, ISI would put all its strength into renewed militancy. This is
more fruitful for Pakistan because while Kargil has meant invasion,
militancy in the state creates a picture of internal subversion.
Pakistan was able to create disruption in Kashmir over ten years. It
will want to continue with its militancy in a more militant form.
Wherever it can, it will want to create communal hatred to weaken
India.
So while militarily Pakistan may be subdued around the peaks of Kargil
and Drass, the threat of militancy will continue. It may even
increase. This is Pakistan's best weapon and it will not let it go.
It does, not expose Pakistan's intentions. And it puts the militancy
to acts by what Nawaz Sharif conveniently calls 'Kashmiri freedom
fighters'. It also gives Pakistan an opportunity to send out its
appeal to the local population, with tales of supposed harsh, methods
used by the armed forces, complaints against the police and use of the
religious appeal.
The Indian Government must be wary of this. Trains going to Kashmir,
buses plying in the state, disruption of communal peace and stories of
attacks on women find a ready means to beat the government and provide
propaganda material to Pakistan. This also must he guarded against.
Like the rest of the country Jammu and Kashmir is also going to take
part in the elections. At that time the people will once again be out
in the streets, with the parties vying with each other to capture
parliamentary power. This is as it should be, but Pakistan would like
to have this too disrupted
Even if the war over the Kargil peaks cools down with the elimination
of the Pakistani regulars and irregulars, the threat of militancy will
not go away.
If Pakistan feels beaten up militarily, its only hope for
internationalising Kashmir will be to increase militancy. If on the
other hand the Kargil war does not end as soon as it is expected,
Pakistan's attempt will be to take recourse to full-fledged militancy
as in the nineties. India will have to fight both. This is challenge
to Indian tactics and planning.
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