Author:
Publication: The Times
of India
Date: June 23, 2000
WASHINGTON: India is
powerful and stable enough politically, economically and militarily to
ward off any but the most violent (read nuclear) threat that could be mounted
by China, a study prepared for the Pentagon said.
Japan and Vietnam were
two other countries on the eastern and southern periphery that could stand
up to China, the study prepared by the Rand Corporation, considered the
Pentagon's own think tank, said.
The study, titled 'Interpreting
China's Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future,' said that "China now
confronts a truly formidable challenge if it seeks to replicate its traditional
goal of controlling or at the very least pacifying new periphery regions
beyond the expanded heartland."
"Indeed, the past option
of direct military force now presents enormous political, economic, and
military dangers to the Chinese state not only from the actions of
the major external powers such as the United States and Russia (which are
often tied by security linkages to the peripheral states), but also directly
from many of the peripheral states themselves," it added.
The study, by senior
Rand analysts Michael D. Swaine and Ashley Tellis said, "Although China
is changing dramatically and for the better, at least in economic terms
during the last 20 years, the fact remains that the capabilities and strategic
orientations of the countries along China's strategic periphery have also
changed.
"As a result, the only
principal peripheral area that Beijing can continue to threaten with overwhelming
force remains Taiwan, an area long regarded by China as a province."
The study said this was
one of the reasons China had adopted a "calculative" strategy to deal with
its territorial disputes, like the one with India, where Beijing continues
to dither on the border question. It said, "Wherever the dispute in question
is significant but cannot be resolved rapidly to China's advantage by peaceful
means, Beijing has advocated an indefinite postponement of the basic issue.
"This tactic has been
adopted, for example, in the case of territorial disputes with India, Japan
and several of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) states."
It said the "basic logic
underlying this approach has been to steadfastly avoid conceding any Chinese
claims with respect to the dispute, while simultaneously seeking to prevent
the dispute from vitiating the environment that China needs to complete
its internal transformation successfully".
Apparently referring
to Beijing's territorial dispute with India as a perfect case study, the
report said under this "calculative" strategy, "whenever intrinsically
valuable territory is at issue, China has sought to preserve the status
quo, not giving up its sovereign claims, but preferring to avoid any application
of force, so long as the other parties to the dispute do not attempt to
change the status quo either".
This was manifest during
President K.R. Narayanan's recent visit to China where he consistently
said that the border dispute was a stumbling block while the Chinese leadership
accorded priority to improvement of atmospherics as a prelude to resolving
outstanding issues. (India Abroad News Service)
