Author: T V R Shenoy
Publication: The Observer
of Business and Politics
Date: September 8, 2000
President's Rule in WB
would give Mamata Bannerjee some advantages. It would put the Left
Front ministry on notice to be on its best behaviour. Even if the
decision fails in the Rajya Sabha, it would drive home the Trinamool Congress
leader's charge that the Cong (I) and the Communists were in partnership,
thus attracting even more anti-Marxist voters to its fold
THE Left Front enjoys
an absolute majority in the West Bengal assembly. The Bharatiya Janata
Party- led National Democratic Alliance does not have a majority in the
Rajya Sabha. Put those facts together and it is next to impossible
to impose President's Rule in West Bengal. (Under the Constitution,
Parliament must support the dismissal of a state government; if the Opposition
blocks the move in the Rajya Sabha any such move is futile - as happened
in Bihar).
So why is Mamata Bannerjee
insisting that Article 356 be employed in West Bengal on the grounds of
deteriorating law and order? There could be more than one reason.
First, she genuinely
fears that the assembly polls due next year will be rigged. (She
has enough reasons to back her up going by the atrocious manner in which
the Lok Sabha election was conducted in the state last year). Second,
she wants to push the Congress (I) into a corner. Third, she is testing
the waters for her colleagues in Delhi. If you ask me, it is a combination
of all three.
Which brings up another
question: Which way will Pranab Mukherjee jump? It is Mukherjee, the recently-
appointed president of the West Bengal Pradesh Congress Committee, who
will be in the hot-seat when Mamata Bannerjee poses the question.
He knew that he was taking over an unenviable job when Sonia Gandhi appointed
him - behind his back and much to his fury I am told. It has not
become any easier since then.
Mukherjee's task is to
make the Congress (I) stand out in a polity polarised between the National
Democratic Alliance and the Left Front. He is in the uncomfortable
position of agreeing with everything Mamata Bannerjee says about the Left
Front but lacks the freedom to say so since the Congress (I) cannot be
seen on the same side as the 'communal' Bharatiya Janata Party and its
allies. Silence merely strengthens Mamata Bannerjee's charge that
the Congress (I) is nothing more than 'the B- team of the Communists'.
Assume Mamata Bannerjee
gets her way, and persuades her colleagues in Delhi that the Left Front
ministry in Calcutta should be dismissed. Some of them might not
like it, but I am fairly certain they would all vote for the dismissal
of the Jyoti Basu ministry if it came down to a vote in the Lok Sabha.
Since the National Democratic
Alliance enjoys an unassailable majority in the Lower House no problems
are anticipated. But, as with Bihar, it is the Rajya Sabha that would
prove the stumbling block.
Of course, if the Congress
(I) backed the Treasury benches it would be a different story. Sonia
Gandhi's party is still the single largest group in the Upper House of
Parliament, joining hands with the National Democratic Alliance would ensure
that the Left Front government would not only be dismissed, but stay dismissed.
How will Pranab Mukherjee react should this hypothetical situation come
true?
President's Rule would
give Mamata Bannerjee some advantages. It would put the Left Front
ministry on notice to be on its best behaviour. Even if the decision
fails in the Rajya Sabha, it would drive home the Trinamool Congress leader's
charge that the Congress (I) and the Communists were in partnership, thus
attracting even more anti-Marxist voters to its fold.
None of this speculation
would have arisen were it not because the CPI (M) is going downhill.
The party has a simple majority in the West Bengal assembly - as it does
not in Kerala - and could, if required, rule without backing from its partners.
But chief minister Jyoti Basu is well over eighty and has publicly announced
his determination to retire. There is nobody in the Marxist ranks
with his stature, and the younger men are seen as rude and arrogant.
After twenty-three years
in power, the Communists have become lazy, not particularly different from
any other party. In the 1999 General Election, Jyoti Basu's own assembly
segment voted for, of all parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party! That does
not mean that the National Democratic Alliance - led by the Trinamool Congress
in West Bengal - shall sweep the polls. Hubris of that kind led to
a debacle in Bihar, where the massive National Democratic Alliance victory
in the Lok Sabha polls turned into a victory of sorts for Laloo Prasad
Yadav. The Left Front is, of course, far more entrenched in West
Bengal than the Rashtriya Janata Dal was in Bihar. And it should
not be forgotten that the Trinamool Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party
are still some way off achieving parity with the Left. However, the
simple fact is that the Congress (I) and the National Democratic Alliance
between them polled more votes than the Left Front. The one thing
that scares the Marxists the most is the consolidation of all those anti-Left
Front votes - both among the voters of West Bengal and in the Rajya Sabha.
I think the Congress
(I) will be a loser no matter how matters turn. Assume that it falls
in with Mamata Bannerjee's demand to impose President's Rule. What
is the result? The credit, almost all of it, will go to the Trinamool Congress
and the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Assume that it does not
agree, and even votes against the use of Article 356 if the issue comes
up before the Rajya Sabha. Then, anti-Left voters will move in droves
to the National Democratic Alliance, and the Congress (I) shall really
become the 'B- team'. (This fate has already overtaken Congressmen
in neighbouring Bihar).
Some say Jyoti Basu will
be the last Marxist chief minister in Calcutta for a while. I have
a different question: Will Pranab Mukherjee be the last president of the
Congress (I) Pradesh Committee while the party is still an effective force?
