Author: Alexander Evans (Regional
Analyst)
Publication: BBC News
Date: February 16, 2001
Pakistan has signalled a subtle
shift in its Kashmir policy, moving away from a position that has held
for over 50 years.
Instead of calling for a solution
to the Kashmir dispute in full accordance with United Nations resolutions
dating from 1948, the stress is now on self-determination.
This formula has the potential to
be more flexible, as it could be seen to pave the way for repartition of
Kashmir, or even independence.
The old position only offered two
theoretical alternatives - the full accession of Kashmir to either India
or Pakistan.
This new rhetoric from Islamabad
also connects with Pakistan's decision to recognise the separatist All
Parties Hurriyat [Freedom] Conference as the 'true representatives' of
the Kashmiri people, and to agree with any solution that gained their support.
Leading Pakistani analysts accept
that there has been a change, even if some claim that only the emphasis
has altered.
The new position does not abandon
the UN resolutions, but emphasises self-determination in addition to giving
a prominent role to the Hurriyat.
Last week, Pakistan's military leader
General Pervez Musharraf said: "Any solution on Kashmir has to be in accordance
with the wishes of the Kashmiri people."
Referring to the UN, he said that
he did not think it could contribute significantly to the Kashmir dispute
unless the main actors decided to let it.
Militants wary
Tensions are said to be emerging
between the United Jihad Council, the umbrella group for militant organisations
fighting in Kashmir, and the Hurriyat.
Militant leaders are sceptical of
Indian overtures on Kashmir, and have criticised Pakistan's move to recognise
the Hurriyat as the "legitimate representatives" of the Kashmiri people.
Some major militant groups are not
represented on the Hurriyat.
They are also watching General Musharraf
closely as he continues to call for Indo-Pakistan talks.
There are a few signs that the Pakistan
Government wants to reduce the role of militant groups operating in Kashmir.
Militant slogans on the road to
Muzaffarabad have been recently been freshly whitewashed, and General Musharraf's
careful words contrast with defiant statements issued by the militant groups
themselves.
Some close to the militants still
see possible moves by the Pakistan Government as slow in coming.
They argue that Pakistan will only
crack down on militant groups as part of an overall deal on Kashmir - and
not before.
And they are doubtful that the current
process can survive without significant Indian concessions.
Too little, too late?
Pakistan's new Kashmir policy will
be appreciated by the United States, which has been pressing Islamabad
to be more flexible.
But it may face domestic opposition
within Pakistan from opponents concerned that Islamabad may be making too
many concessions on the Kashmir issue.
More importantly, it remains to
be seen whether this new policy will have much impact on bilateral relations
with India.
It still leaves Pakistan seeking
to overturn the status quo on the ground.
While Islamabad recognises the Hurriyat
as representatives of Kashmir, Delhi supports the local administration
of Farooq Abdullah.
And India is still deciding whether
to issue travel documents for a group of Hurriyat leaders currently waiting
to visit Pakistan.
For the past two months the Line
of Control separating Indian and Pakistani Kashmir has fallen silent.
This is a major improvement and
marks a departure from the regular exchanges of artillery and small arms
fire heard during the 1990s.
It is also a sign of the commitment
that exists in Islamabad and New Delhi to improving relations.
Whether this little peace can translate
into a major settlement - a resolution of the 54 year-old Kashmir dispute
- depends on how the two neighbours proceed over the next few months.
(Alexander Evans is a specialist
on contemporary Kashmir)
