Author:
Publication: www.tehelka.com
Date:
URL:http://www.tehelka.com/aspsite/rightstory.asp?id1=commentary&id2=Politics&id3=T&id4=20000623561&fname=com021201afsair1%2Ehtm
The impending end to the J&K
ceasefire is giving rise to several anxieties in the minds of the Indian
government as well as the people of the Kashmir Valley. If Pakistan' negative
response to the cease-fire is any indication, the peace process may just
turn out to be a non- starter, says Maj. Gen. Afsir Karim (Retd.)
The extended unilateral cease-fire
in Kashmir will end on 26 February. The question in everyone's mind, especially
the Kashmiris, is: will the cease-fire be extended in the prevailing circumstances?
The sense of relief in Kashmir is
slowly giving way to anxiety, since once the cease-fire is withdrawn the
bad days of search and cordon, identification parades and cross firing
will be back. The ceasefire had eroded some anti-establishment sentiments
in the Valley and had made people realise that trouble can be minimised
if the terrorists stop their operations. However, there are powerful segments
on either side of the Line of Control as well as Jehadi power centres in
Pakistan, who term this bold gesture of peace a fraud, a conspiracy to
stall the Kashmiri struggle for independence and disrupt the momentum of
the Jehadi movement. In between are several opinions, in shades ranging
from grey to black. Here the attitudes and interests of various factions
on both side of the divide, and their interest in peace or continued strife
have been examined with a view to arrive at an objective evaluation of
the present situation and the prospects for peace.
The major actors on both sides of
the border and the international arena are: the Pakistan military regime;
Pakistan army; ISI.; leaders of PoK; militant Jehadi groups; religious
parties; Indian government; the people of J&K; JKLF; All Party Hurriyat
Conference (APHC); and APHC affiliated leaders in Pakistan; J&K government;
rightist parties; opposition leaders; USA; UK; EU; Japan; Afghanistan;
China.
Pakistan Musharraf and his advisers,
including Amy top brass, insist on resumption of dialogue to gain international
acceptance. The regime is unwilling or unable to curb Jehadi forays in
Kashmir. Though ambivalent at the moment, it's likely to take the hard
line later and blame India for the breakdown of talks once the main purpose
of gaining respectability and making efforts for peace have been served.
Cessation of firing on the LoC and Siachen area show signs of a reaction
confined to the LoC. Later orders for withdrawing some troops from the
LoC was purely a demonstration of a desire for peace for the benefit of
the international community. Pulling out of reserves in winters is a common
practice, and a shrewd move.
Pakistan army leadership comprises
of hard liners who believe that any soft line would be an insult to Pakistani
national sentiment and Islam. They believe Indians understand only the
language of force. The reasons for this attitude are obvious: loss of importance
if there is peace between India and Pakistan; a rigid mindset, which has
developed due to the induction of madrasa-trained officers; and the growing
influence of religious parties. Hence all reactions and actions continue
to be belligerent, and peace does not seem to be on the agenda of the Pakistan
army.
The basic aim of religious parties
and Jehadi groups is to establish an Islamic state in Kashmir. A peace
process will reduce their importance and hope of gaining power in Pakistan
and J&K. Hence the total opposition to peace and threats of removing
the Musharraf regime if it moves towards compromising on the Kashmir problem.
Leaders of JKLF, HM and APHC affiliates,
being entirely dependent for their existence on the goodwill of Pakistan,
will tow the official line of the Pakistani regime, and will show themselves
to be hard liners.
The ISI. has its own agenda to continue
armed struggle in J&K and other parts of India; hence there will be
no change in their plans. Lashkar and Jaish-e-Mohammad are sword arms of
the ISI.