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Kashmir: beyond ceasefire

Kashmir: beyond ceasefire

Author:
Publication: www.tehelka.com
Date:
URL:http://www.tehelka.com/aspsite/rightstory.asp?id1=commentary&id2=Politics&id3=T&id4=20000623561&fname=com021201afsair1%2Ehtm

The impending end to the J&K ceasefire is giving rise to several anxieties in the minds of the Indian government as well as the people of the Kashmir Valley. If Pakistan' negative response to the cease-fire is any indication, the peace process may just turn out to be a non- starter, says Maj. Gen. Afsir Karim (Retd.)

The extended unilateral cease-fire in Kashmir will end on 26 February. The question in everyone's mind, especially the Kashmiris, is: will the cease-fire be extended in the prevailing circumstances?

The sense of relief in Kashmir is slowly giving way to anxiety, since once the cease-fire is withdrawn the bad days of search and cordon, identification parades and cross firing will be back. The ceasefire had eroded some anti-establishment sentiments in the Valley and had made people realise that trouble can be minimised if the terrorists stop their operations. However, there are powerful segments on either side of the Line of Control as well as Jehadi power centres in Pakistan, who term this bold gesture of peace a fraud, a conspiracy to stall the Kashmiri struggle for independence and disrupt the momentum of the Jehadi movement. In between are several opinions, in shades ranging from grey to black. Here the attitudes and interests of various factions on both side of the divide, and their interest in peace or continued strife have been examined with a view to arrive at an objective evaluation of the present situation and the prospects for peace.

The major actors on both sides of the border and the international arena are: the Pakistan military regime; Pakistan army; ISI.; leaders of PoK; militant Jehadi groups; religious parties; Indian government; the people of J&K; JKLF; All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC); and APHC affiliated leaders in Pakistan; J&K government; rightist parties; opposition leaders; USA; UK; EU; Japan; Afghanistan; China.

Pakistan Musharraf and his advisers, including Amy top brass, insist on resumption of dialogue to gain international acceptance. The regime is unwilling or unable to curb Jehadi forays in Kashmir. Though ambivalent at the moment, it's likely to take the hard line later and blame India for the breakdown of talks once the main purpose of gaining respectability and making efforts for peace have been served. Cessation of firing on the LoC and Siachen area show signs of a reaction confined to the LoC. Later orders for withdrawing some troops from the LoC was purely a demonstration of a desire for peace for the benefit of the international community. Pulling out of reserves in winters is a common practice, and a shrewd move.

Pakistan army leadership comprises of hard liners who believe that any soft line would be an insult to Pakistani national sentiment and Islam. They believe Indians understand only the language of force. The reasons for this attitude are obvious: loss of importance if there is peace between India and Pakistan; a rigid mindset, which has developed due to the induction of madrasa-trained officers; and the growing influence of religious parties. Hence all reactions and actions continue to be belligerent, and peace does not seem to be on the agenda of the Pakistan army.

The basic aim of religious parties and Jehadi groups is to establish an Islamic state in Kashmir. A peace process will reduce their importance and hope of gaining power in Pakistan and J&K. Hence the total opposition to peace and threats of removing the Musharraf regime if it moves towards compromising on the Kashmir problem.

Leaders of JKLF, HM and APHC affiliates, being entirely dependent for their existence on the goodwill of Pakistan, will tow the official line of the Pakistani regime, and will show themselves to be hard liners.

The ISI. has its own agenda to continue armed struggle in J&K and other parts of India; hence there will be no change in their plans. Lashkar and Jaish-e-Mohammad are sword arms of the ISI.
 


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