Author:
Publication: www.stratfor.com
Date: April 4, 2001
The loss of the EP-3E aircraft means
the demise of some of the United States' capabilities to eavesdrop along
China's coastline. It also could eventually spell more trouble for relations
between the two countries.
Both observations beg the question:
What was a U.S. spy plane doing down there in the first place? True, missions
are flown routinely along the China coast. But a series of incidents, stretching
back several years, indicate the United States has been hunting for signs
of a breakthrough in Chinese submarine technology - one that poses a serious
threat to America's most powerful conventional weapon: the aircraft carrier.
There has been a rash of arrests
of Western defense attaches in China. And recently a U.S. vessel was chased
from an exercise area. Both actions suggest China is close to a breakthrough
in its long-stalled efforts to build an effective submarine threat. Sources
in China confirm the Chinese military reaction to the EP-3E incident was
sharp because the military is trying to safeguard its submarine secrets.
There are two vessels at issue.
The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) placed a new version of the Russian-designed
Kilo-class submarine into service April 4, 2000, according to a brief report
in the Hong Kong-based Sing Tao Jih Pao. The new Kilo is equipped with
anti-ship weapons and has conducted recent drills simulating combat with
carrier-type warships, according to the paper, which cited sources in the
People's Liberation Army. It takes up to a year to qualify a new vessel
and crew for duty at sea.
But the Chinese navy may have made
a more significant breakthrough. It has been working for years on a variant
of the larger, more powerful Victor III submarine. This submarine, known
in China as a Type 093 and due for completion sometime in late 2000, was
designed to launch cruise missiles while submerged. That would allow the
Chinese to threaten the pre-eminent American weapons system in the region:
the aircraft carrier.
A Russian-designed Kilo-class submarine.
The flight of the EP-3E along China's
coastline suggests it was monitoring transmissions of navy vessels and
coastal installations. The aircraft may have been looking for signs of
either of these two submarines as well.
It appears the U.S. Navy was taking
an intense interest in a recent exercise far to the north in the Yellow
Sea - not far from the port where the new boat has been under construction.
That's where the U.S. vessel was chased away.
It is an unusual coincidence that
the damaged American EP-3E made an emergency landing on Hainan Island.
The island lies at the epicenter of China's efforts to extend its naval
force far beyond its coastline. By doing so, it can interdict the sea lanes
that bring oil to Northeast Asia. The Chinese also could put an end to
their worst nightmare, realized in 1996, when American carriers were just
off the Chinese coast.
To the north of the island is the
headquarters of the South Sea Fleet at Zhanjiang. Zhanjiang is a likely
target for collecting Chinese signals from telephone calls and other transmissions
because it controls operations into the hotly contested Spratly Islands.
Two submarine flotillas operate out of the South Sea Fleet, according to
a recent version of Jane's Security Assessment. Hainan hosts a naval base
at the northern port of Haikou.
It appears likely the new Kilos
not only have entered service but also may have been certified to take
part in deep-water operations, ostensibly against American carriers in
the case of war.
The U.S. Defense Department estimated
last year that the Kilos will be adapted to use Russian technology in quieting
and sonar, as well as weapons systems. In a 2000 report, the department
estimated China "is expected to begin arming some of its submarines with
submerged launch cruise missiles." The Chinese navy is also emphasizing
its own anti-submarine operations, emphasizing training.
"As a result, China's submarine
fleet could constitute a substantial force capable of controlling sea lanes
and mining approaches around Taiwan," the U.S. military report concluded,
"as well as a growing threat to submarines in the East and South China
Seas."
Operations in the South China Sea
are the key for China to break out of its largely defensive naval posture.
From the South China Sea, the Chinese can intercept an opposing force -
far away from the mainland. Such a force can harass shipping, particularly
ships carrying petroleum, to Japan and South Korea.
The Chinese military appears to
feel the United States, keenly interested in the submarine program, is
moving to counter this threat by bringing its own weapons closer to the
coast.
