Author: Mr. Afsir Karim (The author
is a retired major-general and astrategic affairs expert)
Publication: India Today
Date: July 16, 2001
Will the Indo-Pak summit help bring
down the simmering tensions in Kashmir? Opinions differ vastly. Rhetoric
and hyperbole aside, there is no change in the prevailing situation in
Kashmir. Tensions may appear to recede during the talks, but that
will be a temporary reprieve. The ground realities will be different.
An objective analysis of the causes and the areas of concern could lead
to a fair assessment of the situation, and also provide solutions.
First, the summit will not abate
tensions on the loc unless all hostile posturing across-the-line firing
and infiltration of terrorist groups are stopped. In the present circumstances,
this seems unlikely as Pakistan believes that India will act reasonably
only if kept under pressure. Although intensive shelling was stopped
as a reciprocal gesture to the declaration of unilateral non-initiation
of combat operations by India, sporadic firing and tensions continue in
certain segments of the loc and the international border in south Jammu.
Tensions can be eased if Pakistan resolves to stop infiltration, but Musharraf
has already declared that the time to rein in the jehadis has not yet come.
By all indications, cross-border terrorism will continue, which will result
in instant confrontation between the two sides, disrupt civilian life in
border areas and lead to increased terrorist attacks.
Secondly, the presence of jehadi
outfits in Kashmir's rural and urban areas cause unrest. Civilians are
caught in the cross-fire between terrorists and the security forces. Before
1989, there was no Pak-sponsored terrorism. Security forces were nowhere
in sight. Peace prevailed in Kashmir. Obviously, unless terrorist groups
are forced to quit Kashmir, tensions will continue. But with little hope
of Pakistan intending to recall sponsored terrorist groups or asking them
to lie low (at least during the summit), there is little chance of normalcy.
Thirdly, the shortsighted policies
of our political parties are also to blame for increasing communal tensions.
Pakistan took advantage of this trend. It resulted in an attack on Hindu
pilgrims and Bihari labourers during the Amarnath yatra last year. These
tactics could be repeated, as the recent bomb attack on pilgrims to Vaishno
Devi temple suggests.
Lastly, by all indications Pakistan
is going to insist that the loc be extended from NJ 9842 to the Karakoram
Pass-an alignment that would give the entire Siachen area and Daulat Beg
Oldi to Pakistan. It would also provide a second Sino-Pak link-up. This
arrangement would render Leh extremely vulnerable from the north and will
make our positions in the Shyok Valley untenable. India can hardly be expected
to accept this arrangement. Confrontation can only be stopped if both armies
mutually withdraw from the glacier and negotiate further.