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Analyse And Then Act

Analyse And Then Act

Author: Mr. Afsir Karim (The author is a retired major-general and astrategic affairs expert)
Publication: India Today
Date: July 16, 2001

Will the Indo-Pak summit help bring down the simmering tensions in Kashmir?  Opinions differ vastly. Rhetoric and hyperbole aside, there is no change in the prevailing situation in Kashmir.  Tensions may appear to recede during the talks, but that will be a temporary reprieve.  The ground realities will be different. An objective analysis of the causes and the areas of concern could lead to a fair assessment of the situation, and also provide solutions.

First, the summit will not abate tensions on the loc unless all hostile posturing across-the-line firing and infiltration of terrorist groups are stopped. In the present circumstances, this seems unlikely as Pakistan believes that India will act reasonably only if kept under pressure.  Although intensive shelling was stopped as a reciprocal gesture to the declaration of unilateral non-initiation of combat operations by India, sporadic firing and tensions continue in certain segments of the loc and the international border in south Jammu. Tensions can be eased if Pakistan resolves to stop infiltration, but Musharraf has already declared that the time to rein in the jehadis has not yet come. By all indications, cross-border terrorism will continue, which will result in instant confrontation between the two sides, disrupt civilian life in border areas and lead to increased terrorist attacks.

Secondly, the presence of jehadi outfits in Kashmir's rural and urban areas cause unrest. Civilians are caught in the cross-fire between terrorists and the security forces. Before 1989, there was no Pak-sponsored terrorism. Security forces were nowhere in sight. Peace prevailed in Kashmir. Obviously, unless terrorist groups are forced to quit Kashmir, tensions will continue. But with little hope of Pakistan intending to recall sponsored terrorist groups or asking them to lie low (at least during the summit), there is little chance of normalcy.

Thirdly, the shortsighted policies of our political parties are also to blame for increasing communal tensions. Pakistan took advantage of this trend. It resulted in an attack on Hindu pilgrims and Bihari labourers during the Amarnath yatra last year. These tactics could be repeated, as the recent bomb attack on pilgrims to Vaishno Devi temple suggests.

Lastly, by all indications Pakistan is going to insist that the loc be extended from NJ 9842 to the Karakoram Pass-an alignment that would give the entire Siachen area and Daulat Beg Oldi to Pakistan. It would also provide a second Sino-Pak link-up. This arrangement would render Leh extremely vulnerable from the north and will make our positions in the Shyok Valley untenable. India can hardly be expected to accept this arrangement. Confrontation can only be stopped if both armies mutually withdraw from the glacier and negotiate further.
 


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