Author: Daniel Pipes
Publication: The Jerusalem Post
Date: July 18, 2001
Back in December I warned in these
pages of the "winds of war" blowing in the Middle East. A few days ago,
the far-left Israeli politician, MK Naomi Chazan, echoed my warning in
these same pages, down to using that same English expression.
But we understand the dangers a
bit differently. For her, the danger stems from "the failure of the cease-fire
and the absence of any movement on the diplomatic front." In contrast,
I emphasized "Israeli demoralization over the past seven years, [which
has] reignited Arab overconfidence." Not surprisingly, we recommend polar
opposite policies. Chazan's solution lies in Israel resuming what I call
the "Oslo niceness" - overlooking Palestinian violence, promoting the Palestinian
economy, withdrawing forces from the territories, and now also recognizing
a Palestinian state.
But haven't we already seen this
movie? Oslo niceness between 1993 and 2000 brought Israel to its present
predicament. Arabs and Iranians watched as a majority of Israel's population
clamored to hand over territory in return for scraps of paper and (correctly)
concluded from this that morale in the Jewish state had deeply eroded.
They also (wrongly) concluded that
the state was therefore militarily vulnerable. With this, the grudging
acceptance that Israel had won from many Middle Easterners, via six wars
and six victories, was rapidly undone. As Arabs and Iranians smelled blood,
their ambition to eliminate Israel, previously in remission, resurfaced
rapidly and widely.
Survey research shows its extent.
The (Arab-run) Jerusalem Media and Communication Center revealed in June
that 46 percent of Palestinians want the current violence to lead to the
"freedom of all Palestine" - code words for the destruction of Israel.
A nearly simultaneous Bir Zeit University poll found an even more resounding
72% of Palestinians supporting the "liberation" of Israel.
These vaulting hopes have spawned
an Arab war fever reminiscent of the terrible days of May 1967. Ze'ev Schiff,
dean of Israeli military correspondents, finds that, just as "on the eve
of the Six Day War, Arab leaders are issuing threat after threat against
Israel, stirring their own passions and those of their audiences." A few
sober-minded Arabic-speakers share this concern. "It's 1967 all over again"
is the title of a dissident's article coming out of Damascus, full of worries
about a repeat disaster.
Unless Israel sends clear signals
of strength, the current bout of saber-rattling could, 1967-style, lead
inadvertently to another all-out war.
Although elected to send precisely
those signals of strength, Ariel Sharon began his prime ministry by unexpectedly
continuing his predecessors' passive response to Palestinian violence (though
this has changed somewhat in recent days).
Whatever Sharon's reasons for inaction
- win Western favor, maintain his coalition government, redeem his reputation
- such a soft policy has major implications. If even this most feared of
Israeli leaders absorbs the death of 21 young people without retaliation,
it confirms the belief that Israel is nothing but a "paper tiger." Or,
in the evocative metaphor of Hizbullah's leader, it is "weaker than a spider's
web."
To combat this perception, Israel
needs to take more active steps. With a nod to Brig.-Gen. (res.) Effi Eitam
and Haifa University's Steven Plaut, here are a few suggestions. Bury suicide
bombers in potter's fields rather than deliver their bodies to relatives
(who turn their funerals into frenzied demonstrations). Freeze the financial
assets of Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat, the PLO, and the
PA. Prevent PA officials (including Arafat) from returning to the PA. Permit
no transportation of people or goods beyond basic necessities. Shut off
utilities to the PA.
Then: implement the death penalty
against murderers. Seize weapons from the PA and make sure no new ones
reach it. Re-occupy areas from which gunfire or mortars are shot. Raze
the PA's illegal offices in Jerusalem, its security infrastructure and
villages from which attacks are launched. Capture or otherwise dispose
of the PA leadership. Destroy the PA. Reach separate deals with each Palestinian
town or village.
Sharon, in short, has no lack of
choices. The hard part is finding the political will to act on them.
The stakes are high. Unless Israel
take steps to deter its potential enemies by reasserting its strong image,
today's war fever could lead to tomorrow's war.
To help avoid such a war, the outside
world (and especially the US government) should do two things: end its
repetition of the illogical mantra that "there can be no military solution
to this conflict" and, instead, urge Sharon to take the steps needed to
resurrect Israel's once-fearsome reputation.