Author: Pramit Pal Chaudhuri
Publication: Hindustan Times
Date: September 16, 2001
The Tables seem to have turned.
A rehabilitated Pakistan is reportedly making demands of the United States:
Lift sanctions, talk Kashmir. Indians wonder if Osama bin Laden has not
magically healed an ailing US-Pakistan relationship. The equation is complex.
What tilts it towards India is that the issue for the US is not bin Laden,
but the entire architecture of terrorism. As a cornerstone of that architecture,
Islamabad may find it difficult if the US converts it into rubble.
Pakistan is an unwilling ally. And
Washington knows it. US leaders from George W. Bush to Colin Powell expressed
scepticism whenever they mentioned Pakistan. Pervez Musharraf did not volunteer
to help, he was coerced. Which is one reason the US has not accepted any
of the demands Pakistan has made of it.
The circumstances under which India
is offering refuelling rights to US warplanes could not have been different.
Islamabad's providing bases will earn it Brownie points but not a special
bond. US sources say, "We'll deal with Pakistan on its own merits. Now
is the time to find out where these merits lie."
The reason lies in the sweep of
the coming US war on terror. Getting bin Laden is only the first step.
Missiles and commandos will only be the visible face of the campaign. The
real business will be wrecking installations and safe havens, knocking
out the drug-derived financial props that sustain terror and making it
clear state-sponsorship will not be tolerated.
This has Pakistan's uniformed elite
in cold sweat. Their jihad machine is funded by opium, inspired by cultivated
violent creeds and sheltered by Pakistan's own rogue state - Afghanistan.
It props up their military, keeps the Kashmir issue alive and covers up
Islamabad's domestic failures. Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld speaks of
war for years. US analysts say it will be like Washington's battle with
Colombian cartels. But bigger. How closely can Pakistan associate itself
with this war?
Offering the US bases was small
stuff, yet it's giving Musharraf migraines. At least one service chief
denounced him. The army is intimidating mullahs to keep a lid on protests.
The US wants to wipe out the Taliban. It will press governments to shut
down madrassas, disarm militants, jail hate-mongering religious leaders
and ban their organisations.
In essence, Islamabad will be asked
to junk its jihad machine, reduce its regional influence and undercut its
nationhood. Many in New Delhi and Washington wonder if the Pakistani state
will survive such a sustained campaign. It will have to change, or perish.
Musharraf is asking for any sop he can get from the US. But these sops
are dwarfed by the abyss that has opened before him.