Author: P R Ramesh
Publication: The Economic Times
Date: January 16, 2002
Three days ago, General Pervez Musharraf
promised he would compel Pakistan to mend its uncivilised ways. Never mind
that it was a reiteration of the steps that he announced a year ago, the
General said religious reforms planned by his administration would change
his society's outlook.
Even die-hard supporters of the
General know that it is not an easy task as jehad is in the blood of Pakistan's
army and its ISI, and a transfusion, even if sincere, would take time.
But a section of the domestic opinion
has already begun detecting a change in Pakistan's outlook. There are no
signs as yet of any change on the ground - there is no let up in the infiltration
and shelling from across the border has not subsided.
It can be argued that such changes
don't happen so fast. But the shelling is being done by the Pakistani army
whose supreme commander is General Musharraf himself. There is no principal-agent
problem here. General Musharraf who has been in denial mode since September
11 cannot deny that his writ does run over at least the armed forces.
The General has also rejected India's
demands for handing over terrorists responsible for acts of violence here.
But this section has concluded that after just one speech, Pakistan is
a changed entity. They have even asked the government to suspend its diplomatic
offensive. Non-compliance is sure to invite charges of war-mongering, jingoism
etc.
The good thing is the readiness
of the government to pay the cost in the form of hostile propaganda rather
than dump a strategy which has been so successful. Pakistan-watchers have
no doubt the performance of the General on Saturday had to do only with
Indian and Western pressures.
The mobilisation was unprecedented
in scale. Far more significant, however, was the determination not to suffer
silently any more and call the nuclear bluff of Pakistan, which, by the
way, is the only nuclear state that refuses to make a "no first use" commitment.
This is the second time when the allegedly non-martial Indians have forced
the jehadi war machine to blink.
A section of the opinion makers,
however, are sticking to their fanciful theories. These theories have one
thing in common - an anxiety to deny the fact that it was the fear of seeing
the underbelly of B-52 bombers that changed Pakistan's attitude toward
the global coalition against terror, and that it was the military build
up and the coercive diplomacy that forced the General to squeak on TV last
Saturday.
Two theories are being propounded
by them. One, Musharraf can act against the "irrational street." Second,
the integration of Pakistan into the global economy will change the face
of Pakistan. Can these be real?
Unlikely. For, the "irrational streets"
have been largely the creation of Pakistan's rulers including Pervez Musharraf.
He preached tolerance for terrorism. On Saturday, he attacked the Taliban
for killing fellow Muslims(as if killing non-Muslims is a lesser crime).
But he as a Brigadier of Special
Forces had personally supervised the killing of Shi'as. The fact of the
matter is that the General and other non-clergy members of the Pakistani
state were as much responsible for the creation of Taliban and its atrocities
as the Deobandi and Wahabi maulavis celebrated September 11.
US is convinced of the depth of
the nexus. And that, along with the monetary rewards, is the reason why
General Musharraf cannot save his "fortress of Islam" from being reduced
to a staging ground for US' operations even when a fragile Lebanon could
say no.
It was the Pakistani state which
funded, trained and incited outfits like Lashkar and Jaish. The anti-Indian
Jehad-e-Asghar has been a state enterprise since 1947 when Major General
Akbar Khan of Pakistan army was put on the job by the Jinnah regime.
If the jehadi establishment looks
an alternate state apparatus it has to do little with the sectarianism
of the clergy and more with the fact that the Jehad-e-Asghari has become
the credo of Pakistan army and the ISI. Disbanding it would require a full-scale
assault on what has become the raison d'être for such vital organs
of the Pakistani State.
Sadly, the General's speech showed
little sign that he was ready to effect the paradigm shift that he has
been credited with. Only those interested in playing to the interested
gallery rather than effecting real change can fault the clergy for mixing
politics with religion. Given that Islam makes no distinction between "secular"
and "temporal", the poor maulanas cannot be expected to do anything different.
Second theory stems from the faulty
Marxian premise of economic determinism. Hence the assumption that it is
economic distress that has been driving Muslims of Pakistan to extremism.
The evidence, however, does not support this premise. Militant Islam is
not a response to poverty. It has surged in countries experiencing rapid
growth.
The arrests of jehadis in Singapore
and Malaysia earlier this week is a case in point. The prosperity of Saudi
Arabia hasn't saved it from the biggest source and patron of jehadi Islam.
Moreover, what is the guarantee that globalisation will indeed turn out
to be the panacea and the leveller it is expected to be?
While it is not the evil it is made
out to be, it can, at least in the immediate run, generate disparities
and despair- in other words, the "root causes" of terrorism. And an honest
analysis would have to acknowledge that the cause of extremism has more
to do with issues of identity than economics
