Author: Editorial
Publication: The Indian Express
Date: March 22, 2002
URL: http://www.indian-express.com/ie20020322/ed1.html
End terrorism in the subcontinent
to reduce nuclear risks
The head of Central Intelligence
Agency, George Tenet, in his testimony to the Senate US Armed Services
Committee on March 19, warned the law-makers that the chances of war and
nuclear conflict between Pakistan and India are now higher than at any
other time since 1971. It is quite possible that the agency staff forgot
to brief him about Pakistan's aggression and the war in Kargil in the summer
of 1999. But the intelligence estimate that "if India were to conduct large
scale offensive operations" into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir ignores the
underlying reasons for the current phase of tensions, military deployments
and possible action. No one can ignore the nuclear risks in the given military
face-off. This itself makes it necessary for a continuous and objective
review of the situation. Tenet, incidentally, acknowledged that the Chinese
"remain key suppliers of missile-related technologies" to Pakistan and
also warned of the erosion of America's decades-old superiority due to
advances in Indian and Chinese satellite technology.
Tenet informed the Senate Committee
in his testimony that the Al-Qaeda poses "the most immediate and serious
threat" that the US faces at present despite the progress made in the US
war against terrorism. He also acknowledged that the Al-Qaeda has not been
destroyed and along with other 'like-minded' terrorist groups (and we know
many next door) will continue to target US diplomatic and military installations,
especially in countries like Pakistan. The brutal terrorist attack on US
citizens in a church in the diplomatic sector of Islamabad last Sunday
was a poignant reminder of the threat. As the recent Operation Anaconda
east of Ghazni in Afghanistan showed, Al-Qaeda fighters have had a free
run across the Pakistan-Afghanistan borders and many had returned from
Pakistan to fight against US-led ground forces on the heights of Shah-i
Kot. The US, no doubt, knows by now the nature of the terrorist threat
posed by the jehadi system and its masters, the army and its prime agency,
the ISI in Pakistan.
Tenet in his testimony recognised
that the attack on Indian Parliament on December 13 was quite destabilising
in the context of September 11. This escalation of terrorism at a time
when a global war against terrorism was being waged by the US triggered
the military posture of India along with the political-diplomatic actions.
The responsibility for the way events
will shape in future completely rests with Pakistan and General Musharraf.
The summer months will prove whether Musharraf's January 12 promises have
been translated into action on the ground or not. The risk of conventional
military action will increase if, to paraphrase an earlier US mantra, Musharraf
does not "cap, reduce and eliminate" cross border terrorism. This will
also influence the political processes and the elections scheduled to be
held in J&K in a few months. India would no doubt ensure that military
operations, if they become necessary, are carried out in such a way that
the nuclear threshold is not reached. This was amply demonstrated in 1999
and there is no reason to doubt that successful military operations cannot
be undertaken below the nuclear threshold in future.
