Author: Najam Sethi
Publication: The Friday Times
Date: October 11 - 17, 2002
Thank you, General Pervez Musharraf,
for delivering us from the likes of Nawaz Sharif and handing us over to
Qazi Hussain Ahmad and Maulana Fazlur Rehman.
The MMA will be an unprecedented
integral element of the National Assembly in days to come. It may well
be a partner in the government of Pakistan in Islamabad as well. But, to
be sure, it will form the next two governments in the two provinces of
the NWFP and Balochistan. In a third, Punjab, it will be a critical part
of the ruling coalition in alliance with any one faction of the PML or
possibly even with the PPP. And in Karachi it will stage a significant
comeback since its ouster in 1981.
It seems that General Musharrafs
rabid anti-PPP and anti-PMLN stance, coupled by his exhortation to the
masses to vote-in new faces, was taken to heart by many people. Instead
of voting en masse for the lotas or old faces who deserted the PPP and
PMLN or were bribed and cajoled to join the PMLQ or Kings Party, many people
have voted for the MMA. Indeed, the MMA has wiped out the two mainstream
moderate political parties - the PPP and the PML - from the scene in the
NWFP and Balochistan.
But thanks for creating a political
vacuum into which the MMA has flowed must also go to General Musharrafs
new found American friend, President George Bush, whose pre-emptive anti-Taliban
and anti-al-Qaeda policies (read anti-Islam) were equally responsible for
nudging the conservative and deeply religious people of these areas into
the arms of the MMA. The irony is that when Qazi Hussain Ahmad and Maulana
Fazlur Rehman control the levers of power in the frontier regions, including
the police and administration, it will become difficult for Islamabad and
Washington to enforce their writ in these areas and the task of hunting
down the rebellious Taliban and hostile Al-Qaeda will become almost impossible.
We may also expect both provinces to unfurl so-called shariah practices
that reinforce the negative "image" of Pakistan abroad.
But thats just for starters. MMA
nominees from both the border provinces as well as from the Punjab will
probably constitute half the members of the next Senate, or upper house,
since each province has an equal number of representatives. That means
that the Senate will become not just a springboard for the defense of provincial
autonomy as it was meant to be but also for religious activism and orthodoxy
which certainly played no part in the dream of the Quaid i Azam to build
a modern and moderate Pakistan. Indeed, we may expect the MMA to initiate
a host of bills for the "Islamisation" or "Talibanisa-tion" of Pakistan
from the floor of the upper House.
I have long argued that politics,
like nature, abhors a vacuum, and that by trying to sideline the mainstream,
moderate parties, General Musharraf would inevitably pave the way for the
immoderate religious parties. This lesson should have been learnt by now
but it wasnt. When the establishment got rid of Benazir Bhutto in 1990,
it made way for Nawaz Sharif. When it got rid of Sharif in 1993, it made
way for Bhutto. When it got rid of Bhutto in 1996, it made way for Sharif.
But when Musharraf got rid of Sharif in 1999 and started to hound Bhutto
as well, he made way for the MMA.
But there is a more cynical view
that may gain currency. Maybe this is just what the establishment wanted.
Two critical provinces bordering Afghanistan with the anti-America MMA
so that the establishment can drive a hard bargain with Washington. And
coalition governments in the other two provinces in which pro-establishment
minorities or majorities can keep "democracy" in check. The armed and unarmed
jihadis inside and outside the establishment should be pleased by the election
results. Having "lost" Afghanistan, they have now acquired a large base
area of their own in their own homeland. They couldnt have tailored a better
outcome for themselves. That is why, in time to come, this "election" may
acquire the same ominous significance in the history of Pakistan as the
1970 elections under another "sincere" military dictator.
