Author: T V Parasuram in Washington
Publication: Rediff on Net
Date: October 18, 2002
URL: http://www.rediff.com/news/2002/oct/18nukes.htm
India could militarily intervene
if Islamists gain control over Pakistan's nuclear weapons either through
a coup or a civil war, a study by an American think tank says.
"The nightmare scenario of the next
few years is that American and allied military operations in South or Southwest
Asia end up severely destabilising the Pakistani regime. Whether due to
a coup by a more pro-radical Islamic faction within the military or something
close to an outright civil war, the reliability of central control of the
Pakistani nuclear arsenal will be diminished," says the study 'Transforming
America's Military', published by the National Defence University.
"In these circumstances, there would
be the distinct prospect of Indian military intervention [with possible
Israeli assistance], and the prospect of a major regional war in which
the use of nuclear weapons could not be precluded," says the study by Peter
Wilson, a senior political specialist at RAND, and Richard D Sokolsky,
a Distinguished Research Fellow in the Institute for National Strategic
Studies at the National Defence University.
India has become an "important nuclear-armed
ally of the United States, providing diplomatic and material support for
Operation Enduring Freedom [in Afghanistan]. US rapprochement with India
is consistent with the US low-profile, long-term containment or hedging
strategy aimed at China," it says.
"Pakistan has become a vital but
very fragile ally in the war against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan,"
it notes.
The Indian government has warmly
endorsed the elements of the Strategic Framework with its emphasis on ballistic
missile defences, the report says, adding New Delhi will tend to size its
nuclear programme to the evolution of the Chinese arsenal and not that
of Pakistan.
A robust Chinese missile modernisation
programme would give advocates of a major Indian intermediate range ballistic
missile build-up good political ammunition. However, it is likely that
any build-up of India's nuclear capability will be severely restrained
by budget limitations, the report says.
The report expects Israel to be
intent on deepening the strategic relationships with Turkey and India,
"a process likely to be encouraged by the United States, especially in
the context of the war on terrorism".
The US and its key allies, says
Sokolsky, "have accepted the fact that both Pakistan and India have become
and will remain overt nuclear-armed states. Perhaps the NPT [Nuclear Non-proliferation
Treaty] regime as a global non-nuclear norm will be strained but not broken".
The consequences of Operation Enduring
Freedom, especially the wider war against terrorism, including a possible
major military campaign against Iraq, could have a profound effect on the
validity of the NPT regime, the study says.
