Author:
Publication: India Infoline
Date: September 13, 2002
URL: http://www.indiainfoline.com/nevi/innu.html
"India's nuclear weapons programme
would serve it well and is a strategy on the leading edge of nuclear thinking,"
said C. Raja Mohan, Editor, Strategic Affairs, The Hindu. This was also
the core argument presented by the Senior Advisor from the US Embassy,
Ashley J. Tellis who was speaking on the topic of "India's Emerging Nuclear
Posture", organized by the Confederation of Indian Industry on Thursday.
Tellis has also authored a book by the same topic published last year.
According to Raja Mohan, Tellis'
book "is a definitive work on India's nuclear policy and strategy and has
lifted the veil that has always shrouded the country's nuclear strategy."
Tellis clearly delineated why and how the nuclear weapons programme is
important to India. "India is a reluctant nucleariser, has avoided and
delayed the process and has developed it only when forced," said Tellis.
"It is still in the process of evolving what its Nuclear Weapons Programme
will be. And that I think will be decided by the geo-political situation."
Tellis believes that India is generally
safe from any nuclear threat. But the threat exists from other nuclear
weapons states who would "use" their nuclear status as a bargaining chip
for goods, services and a better bargaining position in the international
community. Tellis spelled out India's nuclear position as being somewhere
between creating a recess deterrent - taking time to ready actual nuclear
weapons -- and creating a robust ready arsenal, which is best described
as a "Force-in-Being". This translates into getting weapons and delivery
systems ready in days or weeks in case of a supreme emergency.
This "strategically active and operationally
dormant" position allows India to leverage on many fronts: diplomacy, strategic
advantage, budgetary benefits. And in the domestic sphere creates a political
and psychologically reassuring climate. This position of being ready, but
not having an arsenal in place, also allows India to minimize on structural
dilemmas like cost of maintenance, accidents or even a potential leak to
terrorist groups. "The genius in the posture," said Tellis, "does not foreclose
anything. But allows India to develop a strategy according to circumstances."
He also added that "the fact that India does not visibly or formally have
a nuclear command and control system does not mean that it does not have
one in place."
Talking on Kargil, Raja Mohan added
that India has squandered positions in the past. For example, in the mid-Eighties
while India was caught up with the moral posture of what international
nuclear treaty to sign and what not to, Pakistan saw a huge opportunity
and went ahead and developed its nuclear weapons programme. "This, it leverages
with impunity when it comes to promoting cross-border terrorism, " he said.
Tellis concluded with the view that
India's philosophy of being nuclear ready, but not stock piling, is currently
becoming more prevalent. This is apparent in the fact that finally both
the United States and Russia have taken steps to reducing their stocks.
"India's model is a great model," said Tellis, "and it's already been demonstrated
that it can survive even Kargil. And even after Kargil, where India has
not felt the need to develop its nuclear weapons programme further."
