Author: Leader
Publication: The Guardian
Date: October 8, 2002
URL: http://www.guardian.co.uk/leaders/story/0,3604,806613,00.html
Pakistan juggles with US and al-Qaida
If George Bush's "war on terror"
were remotely rational, or even roughly reasoned, then its next target
might be Pakistan, not Iraq. It should be said that the US is not justified
in pre-emptively and unilaterally attacking either country - or any other
sovereign state for that matter. But on the basis of Mr Bush's own "axis
of evil" criteria at least, Pakistan sits squarely in the theoretical firing
line. When it comes to weapons of mass destruction, Islamabad's unregulated,
uninspected nuclear bombs put it way ahead of Iraq and Iran. When it comes
to delivery systems, the US was obliged only last weekend to rebuke General
Pervez Musharraf's regime for its alarming show-trial of a medium-range
missile.
Pakistan, or elements of Pakistan's
intelligence and military services, had well-established links with the
Taliban in next-door Afghanistan; Mullah Omar was widely seen as a Pakistani
creation. Leading al-Qaida figures, and possibly Osama bin Laden, are supposedly
holed up in Pakistan. Accelerating terrorist outrages, including attacks
in Karachi on westerners and Christian worshippers, have followed al-Qaida's
cross-border retreat. From here it is but a short jump to the shipping
lanes of Yemen and the airwaves of Qatar's al-Jazeera. And according to
India, Pakistan is still the prime, deliberate exporter of terrorism in
other directions, into Kashmir and Gujarat. By most "war on terror" measures
in fact, Pakistan, with its ruptured economy, unstable politics and military
government is a state both failed and rogue that is over-ripe for regime
change.
Canny Gen Musharraf's strategic
leap into Mr Bush's febrile camp one year ago explains his survival so
far, his apparent immunity from US prosecution. Last month's timely handover
of top al-Qaida suspect Ramzi Binalshibh was the latest down- payment on
an expedient deal that keeps the 82nd Airborne at arm's length and the
soft loans coming. But that said, all the evidence suggests Pakistan's
many-headed terrorism and security problems are if anything worsening as
the religious parties agitate, assassination plots brew, and public opinion,
according to one poll, swings against extradition of terror suspects to
the US.
Gen Musharraf, for whatever reason,
has plainly failed to fulfil his solemn June pledge to bring a "permanent"
end to the infiltration of militants into Kashmir. Over 600 people have
died there in the course of the current state elections. Last spring's
referendum, which made Gen Musharraf president with sweeping powers, was
an undemocratic embarrassment. His exclusion from public life of many of
Pakistan's established politicians is another. For these and other reasons,
how certain can he be that a US administration obsessed with al-Qaida,
losing its grip in Afghanistan, possibly emboldened by Iraq, and pricked
on by Delhi will not eventually turn on him?
The answer is that he cannot be
certain, for US policy is neither rational nor reasoned. Far better all
round, therefore, that Gen Musharraf honour his personal promise to return
to barracks and leave politics to the politicians after this week's general
election. Only a strong, popular, democratic government, working with but
not for the military, has any long-term chance of rehabilitating Pakistan
economically, defanging the terrorists, and persuading India to end its
threats and start a meaningful dialogue. Only fair, unrigged elections
can bring the sort of regime change Pakistan really needs and stymie the
threat of escalating US interventionism. If Gen Musharraf reneges and the
election is stolen, the Pakistani people will know who to blame.
