Author: Arnaud de Borchgrave
Publication: United Press International:
Date: November 18, 2002
With fresh evidence that Osama Bin
Laden is still alive and kicking and with his friends and protectors about
to take over the provincial governments of two of Pakistan's four provinces,
as well as a share in the new national coalition that will now run the
country (under the watchful eye of President Pervez Musharraf), a key question
for the U.S. intelligence community remains unanswered: Why has the CIA
ignored for 11 consecutive months the only anti-al Qaida Pakistani tribal
leader who had tracked bin Laden's movements ever since his escape from
Tora Bora last Dec. 9?
In their quest to find bin Laden
dead or alive, CIA operatives doled out millions of dollars in cash to
buy the loyalty of tribal chieftains whose tribes straddle the unmarked,
mountainous Afghan- Pakistan border. There was one glaring omission: a
tribal leader who commands the loyalty of 600,000 people who is also a
respected, national figure. His adobe abode near Peshawar is Spartan. He
is a former Marxist of Cold War vintage and is not interested in money.
A good news source of this writer, his information was prescient and invariably
accurate. At his request, we agreed not to reveal his name.
In late November 2001, this tribal
chief contacted us via a mutual friend. He said his people knew where bin
Laden was in the Tora Bora mountain range. He agreed to put some of his
tribal scouts and horses at our disposal and on Dec. 11 we set out on horseback
for the Tirah Valley, on the southside of Tora Bora, where "Afghan Arab"
survivors of U.S. bombing were expected to make their escape. Shortly after
we began our journey, a messenger caught up with us and advised us to dismount,
as "you will almost certainly be kidnapped for ransom."
Wearing national dress, our party,
including a prominent Pakistani American and two security guards, detoured
around the valley to another pass on the border. Upon our return, we stopped
off to see the tribal leader. Bin Laden, he informed us, had indeed come
out through the Tirah Valley on horseback two days before we got there,
on June 9. He and a party of about 50 had turned their horses over to local
tribesmen, and continued in 4x4s and SUVs into Peshawar, 2 hours away.
In this capital of the Northwest
Frontier Province, Bin Laden found himself surrounded by hundreds of thousands
of sympathizers, including Islamist doctors who took care of his respiratory
and kidney ailments. The Inter-Services Intelligence Agency knew that he
had arrived in Peshawar but presumably this was not reported to Musharraf.
In his interviews, the president invariably says he believes bin Laden
died in Tora Bora. During the recent Pakistani election campaign, posters
of bin Laden "The Liberator" and "U.S. Go Home" banners at Peshawar rallies
staged by politico-religious parties.
The reason this anti-American, pro-al
Qaida slum city of 3.5 million was not combed alley by alley, according
to the tribal leader, was the fear of triggering a bloodbath. At the Musharraf
level, he speculated the reluctance to go after bin Laden may have been
the fear the United States would lose interest in Pakistan once bin Laden
was captured dead or alive -- and would welsh on its post-9/11 economic
aid commitments. Much of the anti-Americanism in Pakistan today stems from
U.S. diplomatic, economic and military sanctions imposed after the defeated
Soviets withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989.
The U.S. intelligence community
has been aware of the tribal leader's name and reputation, but did not
contact him. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz took his name down
on Aug. 4 and said he would look into it. In July, bin laden, according
to the chief, moved to Karachi, a sprawling seaport city of 13 million
on the Arabian Sea. He lost track of him in Karachi in early November.
Members of the chief's tribe who work in Karachi reported he might have
left the country in one of the thousands of dhows that ply the waters between
Pakistan and the Arabian Peninsula, including Yemen.
Could it be that the intelligence
community, already overburdened by the requirements of the coming war on
Iraq and the war on terror, is not too interested in a "we've got Osama
alive" melodrama that might detract from the current "get Hussein" priority
objective? There is also the unspoken fear that a dead or captured bin
Laden would trigger hundreds of smaller terrorist incidents worldwide.
For months, U.S. military and CIA
agents have been operating with Pakistani troops in the mountains along
Pakistan's western border with Afghanistan, a region that is hostile to
both Pakistani and U.S. forces where they suspected bin Laden was hiding.
Why they ignored a prominent Pakistani
tribal leader, a man who has traveled to the United States, Britain and
many other countries in his career, remains a mystery. Members of the President's
Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board who were asked by us to ask the question
have simply been told, "We'll get back to you on that." They're still waiting.
