Author: Patrick Wintour, chief
political correspondent
Publication: The Guardian, UK
Date: November 11, 2002
URL: http://www.guardian.co.uk/guardianpolitics/story/0,3605,837555,00.html
Introduction: UK safety from attack
'cannot be guaranteed'
Tony Blair is to call for heightened
vigilance against the growing threat from international terrorism, while
arguing that governments cannot be expected to guarantee safety from attack.
In his address to the Lord Mayor's
banquet in London tonight, Mr Blair is expected to argue that "homeland
security" can only be totally guaranteed at the price of paralysing an
open society, disrupting daily civilian life and abandoning civil liberties.
Such a wholesale reordering of society would amount to a victory for the
terrorists.
No 10 aides suggest that he will
call for greater realism from those who claim that intelligence agencies
should be able to identify an immediate terrorist threat. The warnings
given to intelligence agencies in advance of the recent Bali bomb covered
60% of Indonesia.
Similarly, British intelligence
was aware of an increased threat posed by al-Qaida before to the September
11 attacks last year, but did not have details about the timing, targets,
location or nature of the attack.
The prime minister's speech, in
which he will admit that the terrorist threat is higher now than it was
a year ago, follows the Home Office mistake in releasing an alarmist warning
that Britain may face a dirty bomb attack from either land or sea.
Mr Blair's aides insist that the
prime minister's call for greater realism in the debate about risk and
security is not an admission that governments cannot protect a society
vulnerable to terrorism.
Officials admit it is hard to call
for vigilance, including precautionary travel warnings, without prompting
panic and paralysis.
But Whitehall has not been afraid
of issuing such warnings in the past.
In 1998 the Foreign Office published
a document on possible threats, including the warning that 100 kilograms
of anthrax released from the top of a tall building in a densely populated
area could kill up to 3m people.
David Veness, head of Britain's
anti-terrorist police, said last year that a nuclear or biological attack
was "sadly, the next logical step".
Mr Blair will tonight praise the
UN for agreeing to take firm action against Iraq. He will insist that Saddam
Hussein now has a final opportunity to avert war, but military action is
a serious possibility.
Reviewing the government's foreign
policy last year in the wake of the terrorist attack on the twin towers,
Mr Blair urged the west to be aware of Arab feelings and accepted many
Arabs saw double standards in the west's approach to the Middle East dispute.
He has subsequently called for a
Middle East peace conference by the end of this year. His aides accept
that the target will not be met, partly due to imminent elections in Israel.
Last year he said: "The Middle East
peace process must be restarted. We should contrive the first steps in
mutual confidence and security on both sides."
Mr Blair will also praise the US
and the UN for staying the course in Afghanistan, but is not likely to
comment on plans for the UN security protection force to be extended beyond
Kabul to a number of other cities including Kandahar, Mazar-i-Sharif, and
Herat.
The international development secretary,
Clare Short, visited Afghanistan two weeks ago, but any such decision will
ultimately be taken by the US.
In his speech Mr Blair will also
call for further action to renew international trade talks.
