Author: Shaheen Sehbai
Publication: South Asia Tribune
Date: February 17-23, 2003
Pakistan has perilously drifted
into a box, totally confused where to go, how to proceed and in which direction.
Internally Pakistan is stuck between
a military dictator who has no intention of even sharing a little bit of
power and the unknown alternate of Jihadi Generals who, if they throw him
out, will automatically invite the inevitable catastrophe.
Externally the choices are even
worse. Continued support to the United States means going against the world
current and specially the sentiments of the Islamic countries. Opposing
Washington means inviting the same catastrophe and pay the price for being
?a foe and not a friend?.
Policy makers and strategists do
not know how to resolve these fundamental contradictions and the tragedy
is that General Pervez Musharraf does not have the brains or the capacity
to comprehend the situation and involve the country?s real public opinion
into making decisions, using the collective wisdom of the people and their
genuine representatives. He thinks he has the intelligence to push and
shove his way out of any crisis.
But his colleagues in the Army and
other Armed Forces do not think so, though they may not say so publicly.
Muted criticism of Musharraf?s policies is now visible in between the lines
when these ?other? armed forces leaders speak out. For instance the statements
of Pakistan?s Navy Chief Admiral Shahid Karimullah are ominous when he
criticized Musharraf?s pro-US policy, though in a tongue and cheek manner.
He said in so many words that Pakistan
got nothing out of its alliance with the US except for beautiful letters
expressing admiration, adding: "US military sanctions against Pakistan
have not been lifted."
General Musharraf himself was caught
in a bind when President Bush pressed him to express his support for the
Iraq policy, although America?s own NATO allies have taken hard line positions
against Bush. Musharraf could only tell Bush war was not the best option.
His own Ambassador in the Security Council, Munir Akram, could go no further
than saying the UN was the best forum to resolve issues like Iraq. The
Ambassador could not dare to mention that if Washington wanted implementation
of UNSC resolutions on Iraq, why it did not support implementation of UNSC
resolutions on other issues, like Kashmir and Palestine. That would have
been politically incorrect.
Domestically Musharraf is in a bigger
mess and is getting away with it because of the uncertain international
situation. Almost five months have gone and the election process started
on October 10 last year has not yet been completed. The result is that
the Parliament is yet to hold its inaugural session or start its normal
work. This is deliberate to the last dot as Musharraf and his henchmen
are managing and ensuring that each step is according to what they think
is the right script. Nothing should get out of hand. So each election is
being handled one by one. This takes time but the cost is credibility.
Caught in this depressing situation
is Prime Minister Zafrullah Jamali who does not know whether to go left
or to the right. He has been dispatched to several foreign capitals just
to show that he was now head of government but in all crucial foreign policy
discussions, not even one trusted man of Jamali has been included. The
talks with General Tommy Franks of CENTCOM and Musharraf?s visit to Russia
were glaring examples when Jamali or his men were kept out, deliberately.
Powerless ministers of his cabinet
keep on making ?politically correct? and pro-Washington statements, just
trying to please the Generals and the Americans, knowing that they had
no credibility with either, not to talk of the people of Pakistan.
Even harmless political moves which
could make the Jamali Government look a little better in the eyes of the
poor, oppressed masses, have been blocked by Musharraf?s men thrust in
the Jamali cabinet. One example is the case of the price of wheat flour
which Jamali announced publicly will be cut down just by one rupee per
kilogram. Even this was denied to him as Musharraf had ordered Jamali that
any decision having financial implications must be approved by the cabinet
where his Finance wizard, Shaukat Aziz would have the final say.
This is exactly what happened to
the one rupee cut in flour price. Shaukat Aziz vetoed the move and Jamali
was helpless. The justification created for the veto was more interesting.
The cut would be logistically impossible to implement, Jamali was told
and instead he was offered a Rs 5 billion package to distribute to 2 million
households, as a short form of political bribe to favorites as no criteria
was laid down as to who would be eligible for this handout out of the tax
payers kitty. Click to View Minutes of Cabinet Meeting
Amid all this Jamali has been asked
to pay an official visit to Washington in late March. What can he or the
Bush Administration achieve with this visit is not clear but probably it
is one way of keeping the Prime Minister busy and make him feel that he
was part of the show.
In the given situation Mr. Jamali
has no real choice. He has yet to use the card of his Parliamentary strength
against the Generals but this game has been shrewdly kept under control
by the Khakis by not allowing the Parliament to meet even once for a normal
working session since the elections. After the Senate elections, if they
go according to the calculations of the strategists, Musharraf will think
whether to risk inaugurating the session.
But by playing the poodle, Jamali
has adopted the wise strategy of not allowing Musharraf to dismiss his
government on some pretext. That would be a set back to every one as politicians
and the people have a chance of getting rid of the Generals only if the
Parliament continues to exist and slowly chips away the powers.
Raza Rabbani, the Secretary General
of the Pakistan People's Party calls the Jamali Government a ?Photo Copy?
of the Musharraf Regime. He is right but he has to understand that when
the original is somehow lost or destroyed, it is the photo copy which provides
proof for continuation of the process. This is what Jamali is banking on.
