Author: G Parthasarathy
Publication: The Economic Times
Date: May 11, 2003
URL: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/cms.dll/html/uncomp/articleshow?msid=45998104
Introduction: The Indo-Pak summit
express has huffed and puffed many a time. Will it chug now?
Just a few months ago the armed
forces of India and Pakistan were deployed on the borders ready to strike
at each other. The international community kept its fingers crossed, hoping
that the tensions would not escalate into a nuclear conflict.
The deployment took place immediately
after Pakistani terrorists attacked India's Parliament on December 3, 2001.
The attack came after the conclusion of a pointless and ill-prepared India-
Pakistan Summit in Agra. Prime Minister Vajpayee earlier undertook a "historic"
bus ride to Lahore in February 1998 for yet another India-Pakistan Summit,
only to find that his hosts had taken him for a ride by attacking across
the Line of Control in Kargil. When Rajiv Gandhi and Benazir Bhutto met
in Islamabad in 1988 and 1989, high expectations were raised about how
the two young leaders would launch India and Pakistan into a new era of
peace and amity. Within months of the second Islamabad Summit in 1989,
India and Pakistan were close to conflict in 1990, after militancy supported
by Pakistan spread across the Kashmir Valley. These are developments we
cannot forget as Mr Vajpayee prepares for yet another Islamabad summit.
Mr Vajpayee caught the whole world
by surprise by his offer of yet another olive branch to Pakistan, during
his public meeting in Srinagar. This offer came in the wake of calls by
the international community led by the US that India should resume a process
of "engagement" with Pakistan. In the meantime, Pakistan came under considerable
American pressure to stop cross-border support for the Taliban in Afghanistan,
where American forces are now frequently coming under attack. Pakistan
was also told to end "infiltration" across the LoC in J&K and rein
in its Jihadis.
No one of any consequence
anywhere buys the Pakistani line that it provides only "moral, political
and diplomatic support" to the Jihadis in J&K. World opinion has turned
against Pakistan because of its Kargil misadventure and its links with
the Taliban and terrorist groups across the world. Hopes of support from
the Islamic world have also faded in Pakistan after the American military
campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. But, Pakistan has skillfully exploited
its location to become a "staunch ally" of the US in its war against terrorism.
There is, however, a growing feeling in the US that a solution to the Kashmir
issue has to be sought on what President Clinton termed as the "Northern
Island" model, where territorial differences are subsumed in trans-border
arrangements and through regional economic integration. Such a Kashmir
solution would involve substantive autonomy on both sides of the LoC and
trans-border arrangements that would make the LoC a "soft border".
Mr Vajpayee's initiative has to
be seen in this larger context, as an attempt to create diplomatic space
to explore the possibilities of reducing tensions. But, as past experience
has shown, this is easier said than done. The army establishment and the
ISI are not going to easily give up their support to their favorite Jihadis
and extremist and separatist groups in India, event though such support
may be kept carefully calibrated and measured, especially before General
Musharraf undertakes his pilgrimage to the White House next month. They
will spare no effort to see that efforts for normalcy and peace by newly
elected Government of Mufti Mohammad Syed in J&K are subverted and
thwarted. Thus, even as it prepares to explore diplomatic initiatives,
New Delhi would have to keep its powder dry, especially if massacres like
those in Kaluchak or Nadimarg should recur.
The diplomatic road ahead is not
going to be smooth. Recent announcements by Prime Minister Jamali on issues
like bilateral and regional trade liberalization have been, at best, cosmetic.
Pakistan television, radio and ISI run news agencies continue to spit venom
against India. There is no room for sentimentality or misplaced generosity
in dealing with a military dominated regime in Pakistan. We should, however,
be pro-active and liberal in promoting people to people contacts. Foreign
Minister Kasuri complained about India trying to block Pakistan's re-entry
into the Commonwealth. The international community and organisations like
the International Crisis Group have termed the elections in Pakistan as
fraudulent and "seriously flawed". There can, therefore, be no question
of India acquiescing in Pakistan's entry into the Commonwealth in violation
of existing Commonwealth principles. Pakistan cannot also join the Indian
Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation as long as it denies us
MFN trading status.
(The writer is a former envoy to
Pakistan)
