Author: Sudhi Ranjan Sen and Mubashir
Zaidi
Publication: The Hindustan Times
Date: May 16, 2003
URL: http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_254230,001300270001.htm
Pakistan is preparing to flood Indian
Kashmir with jehadis if the Srinagar peace initiative collapses.
The bulk of the militants to be
sent across the Line of Control (LoC) will be drawn from the renamed Lashkar-e-Tayebba,
say both Indian and Pakistani sources. Senior Pakistani officials are saying
they are preparing the ground for waves of suicide bombers and fidayeen
attacks in the Valley.
Lashkar will be the frontline jehadi
group and its founder, Hafeez Mohammed Saeed, the public face of the militants.
Islamabad is depending on Lashkar
for a number of reasons.
One, Pakistan is avoiding using
Jaish-e-Mohammed because it is tainted with links to Al-Qaeda and is being
closely watched by Washington. Islamabad also sees Masood Azhar as too
independent and as becoming too powerful. The authorities are moving to
sideline him. Azhar's attempts to go to PoK are reportedly being instigated
by groups within the ISI who fear Jaish is losing out to Lashkar.
Two, the Hizbul Mujahideen has almost
ceased to be a fighting force following Majid Dar's murder. Indian intelligence
believes Hizb's internal faction fighting has made it nearly impossible
for the group to carry out major terrorist strikes.
Syed Salahuddin's faction in the
Hizb is now little more than a logistics agency for Lashkar. Its role in
any summer flare-up will be providing guides and porters. Hizbul still
controls the launching and receiving points for militants along the LoC,
which means, say Pakistani sources, it is still has a necessary role in
infiltration.
Three, Lashkar, which has been nurtured
by the ISI, is more amenable to Islamabad's control than Jaish. After it
changed its name, Lashkar moved its camps and offices from Punjab to Sindh.
Islamabad has also begun working with lower-level Lashkar leaders, rather
than those known to the US.
Jehadi-watchers say Hafeez Saeed
will be the pointman if Kashmir burns this summer. He is close to the Muttahida
Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), the ISI and in the good books of Islamabad. Saeed
rejected the peace initiative in a rally in Muzaffarabad, PoK, on Wednesday.
"The solution lies in jehad, not in dialogue," he said.
Another rising force is Hamid Gul,
who is serving as Saeed's advisor. His influence is being seen in Lashkar's
increasingly virulent attacks against the US. "Gul was never out of favour
with Islamabad. He just kept a low profile because of US pressure," said
an Indian official.
Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf
has said and continues to believe India called the Agra summit because
of jehadi violence in Kashmir.
If Srinagar fails, say observers
in Islamabad, he believes a spike in insurgency will force New Delhi back
to the negotiating table.
Why Lashkar?
Jaish is out because of its Al-Qaeda
links
Hizb is virtually defunct after
Majid Dar's murder
Lashkar is more amenable. It changed
its name and moved camps on Pakistan's orders.
