Author: B. Raman
Publication: South Asia Analysis
Group
Date: May 22, 2003
URL: http://www.saag.org/papers7/paper696.html
The recent bomb blasts at Riyadh
(May 12) in Saudi Arabia and Casablanca in Morocco (May 16) have proved,
if proof was needed, that despite the successes scored by the international
coalition led by the US in the war against terrorism, the motivation of
the various jihadi terrorist groups inspired by Osama bin Laden remains
strong and that they suffer from no dearth of volunteers for suicide missions.
2. The Islamic jihadi terrorist
groups active in different parts of the world today can be divided into
three categories: Al Qaeda itself, which is an exclusively Arab organisation
led by bin Laden; the International Islamic Front (IIF), which is a coalition
of like-minded jihadi organisations of different countries formed by bin
Laden in 1998; and other jihadi organisations inspired by him, which, however,
operate autonomously without becoming members of the IIF.
3. bin Laden has deliberately kept
the strength of Al Qaeda small ( presently about 500) and excluded non-Arabs
from it in order to prevent the attempts of foreign intelligence agencies
to penetrate it. The smaller and the more tightly controlled a terrorist
organisation, the more difficult it is to penetrate it. He depends on it
for his own physical security, for some of the spectacular strikes carried
out against US interests and for training the cadres of other jihadi organisations
and motivating them.
4. Amongst the spectacular terrorist
incidents carried out by Al Qaeda were the explosions in Saudi Arabia in
1996; those outside the US Embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar-es-Salaam,
Tanzaniya, in August,1998; the attack on the US naval ship USS Cole off
Aden in October, 2000; the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US in 2001; the
explosion outside a synagogue in Tunisia in April, 2002; and the recent
explosions in Riyadh. Amongst its operations, which did not succeed, one
could mention the failed attempt to blow up a French oil tanker off Yemen
last year.
5. The IIF consists of 13 organisations---Al
Qaeda itself, the Taliban of Afghanistan, five from Pakistan, three from
Egypt, two from the Central Asian Republics and one from the southern Philippines
(Abu Sayyaf). The five Pakistani organisations are the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen
(HUM) and its newly-created international wing called the HUM (Al Alami),
the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Jaish-e-Mohammad
(JEM) and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ). Of these, the HUM, the HUJI, the
LET and the JEM have been active since 1993 in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K)
and other parts of India. The LEJ is a Sunni extremist organisation whose
activities are confined to Afghanistan and Pakistan. bin Laden is the Amir
of the IIF in addition to being the head of Al Qaeda. Thus, he wears two
hats.
6. Even after the losses suffered
by them due to the US air strikes in Afghanistan after October, 7, 2001,
the various constituents of the IIF put together are presently estimated
to have a total strength of 30,000 plus well-trained and motivated cadres,
the majority of them belonging to the five Pakistani components.
7. Amongst the post-9/11 terrorist
incidents carried out by the IIF members---mainly by its Pakistani components--one
could cite the kidnapping and murder of Daniel Pearl, an American journalist
in Karachi ; the explosion outside a Karachi hotel killing 13 French engineers
working in a submarine construction project; the explosion outside the
US Consulate in Karachi, which killed some Pakistani civilians, but no
Americans; the hand-grenade attack inside an Islamabad church, which killed
the wife of an American diplomat and their daughter; and the attacks on
a foreign run Christian educational institution near Islamabad and on a
bus carrying German and other Western tourists to Xinjiang along the Karakoram
Highway in the Northern Areas of Pakistan. All these incidents took place
last year. On May 15 this year, there were minor explosions caused by timed
explosive devices at 21 gas stations in Karachi, which are also attributed
to these Pakistani organisations.
8. While Al Qaeda itself has not
been active in India, four of the five Pakistani components of the IIF
have been active in our territory and have been responsible for 80 per
cent, if not more, of the terrorist incidents by jihadi elements in India.
The HUM is a founding-member of the IIF and had signed bin Laden's first
fatwa of 1998 against the US and Israel. The other Pakistani organisations
joined it subsequently.
9. There was no suicide terrorism
in J&K before 1999. It has been imported into our territory since these
organisations joined the IIF. Since 1999, there have been 46 suicide attacks
in Indian territory, of which 44 are believed to have been carried out
by these Pakistani organisations. Indigenous Kashmiri groups, not members
of the IIF, were suspected only in the remaining two incidents.
10. In the past, a number of Arabs,
who had fought in Afghanistan against the Soviet troops, were caught in
J&K. They were operating in our territory as members of the Pakistani
and Kashmiri organisations and not as members of Al Qaeda. Till now, Al
Qaeda, as an organisation, has not come to notice for any direct activities
in our territory, but it has over the years trained and motivated, at the
instance or with the connivance of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI), the cadres of the Pakistani components of the IIF.
11. While there is as yet no evidence
of an Al Qaeda presence in Indian territory, Abu Zubaidah (a Palestinian),
the then No. 3 of Al Qaeda, who was caught in an LET hide-out at Faislabad
in Pakistani Punjab in March last year and handed over to the USA, was
reported to have undergone computer training in a private institution of
Pune in the 1990s before crossing over into Pakistan and joining Al Qaeda.
It would , therefore, be reasonable to assume that he might have developed
a sleeper network in India during his stay here, which might be available
to Al Qaeda for any operations directed against US and/or Israeli interests
in our territory.
12. Since the beginning of this
year, a number of messages attributed to bin Laden have been circulating
in the Islamic world. One of them described Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Morocco,Jordan,
Nigeria and Yemen as countries ruled by apostate regimes, which need to
be liberated from American control. Another cited the alleged US support
to India on the Kashmir issue as one of the reasons for the Muslim anger
against the US. In the past, bin Laden used to cite mainly the Palestinian
issue and the presence of US troops in the Muslim holy land of Saudi Arabia
as the main reasons for the Muslim anger against the US and Israel. His
recent reference to the US and Kashmir throws open the danger of a terrorist
strike against US and Israeli nationals/interests in Indian territory either
by Al Qaeda itself or by one of the Pakistani constitutents of the IIF.
The danger is particularly high from the LET, which is presently believed
to be doing the co-ordination and control on behalf of Al Qaeda.
13. Amongst the jihadi organisations
inspired by bin Laden, but not members of the IIF, one could refer to the
Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) of the southern Philippines, the Jemma
Islamiya (JI) of South-East Asia, the Salafi Jihadi of Morocco and the
organisations active in Somalia, Xinjiang in China and Dagestan and Chechnya
in Russia. These organisations have office-bearers and cadres trained in
Afghanistan, who maintain close contact with Al Qaeda and the IIF and extend
logistic help to them , but they are not members of the IIF.
14. Amongst the terrorist strikes
attributed to them are last year's explosions in Bali (Indonesia) by the
JI and in Mombasa (Kenya) by a Somali group and the attacks in Moscow and
Chechnya by the Chechens. The present indications are that the Casablanca
blasts were also probably the work of Moroccan elements allied to the Salafi
Jihadi and other domestic groups.
15. The US has made some headway
in the war against terrorism. A number of important Al Qaeda leaders and
cadres have been eliminated or captured. Many incidents have been thwarted
by timely intelligence and arrests. The command and control of Al Qaeda
has been disrupted. But its motivation remains strong and its infrastructure
in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia is largely intact , despite some
damage inflicted by the US-led coalition. The reluctance of the Bush Administration
in the US to act against the Musharraf regime in Pakistan for sheltering
the terrorist infrastructure has reduced the effectiveness of the counter-terrorism
operations. The widespread anger in the Islamic world over the US-UK invasion
and occupation of Iraq has added to the bitterness against them. A respite
from the terrorism of Al Qaeda and other terrorist organisations inspired
by it is, therefore, unlikely in the short and medium term. India cannot
remain unaffected by this.
16. While it is still uncertain
whether bin Laden is alive or dead, there are more indicators suggesting
that he is probably alive than the other way round. Even if he is dead,
his removal from the scene will not bring an immediate disruption of the
activities of his followers, who would be able to keep up the tempo of
their terrorism for some years to come. Of course, there will be less centralised
direction and co-ordination and more independent, unco-ordinated strikes,
but there will be no decrease in the brutality and unpredictability of
their violence.
(The writer is Additional Secretary
(retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director,
Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and, Convenor, the Observer Research
Foundation (ORF), Chennai Chapter. E-Mail: corde@vsnl.com)
