Author: Chandrasekhar Dasgupta
Publication: India Today
Date: June 30, 2003
Introduction: In charting a course
to becoming world power, India and China must realise that their basic
interests are complementary, not competitive.
It can be safely predicted that
China and India, two of the most populous countries and fastest growing
economies in the world, will emerge as great powers in this century. It
would also not be unreasonable to predict that China will attain that status
before India. These trends will influence the foreign policies of both
the countries as well as their mutual relations.
Reflecting their aspirations to
a powerful status, both India and China maintain that international relations
are currently in transition from a unipolar to a multipolar system. These
statements should be seen simply as a theoretical exercise in identifying
future trends. It would be a mistake to invest them with any operational
significance. Neither country has any interest in actively opposing unipolarity,
or American hegemony, on any issue where its national interests are not
directly involved. China's low profile in the Security Council debates
on Iraq is a lesson in pragmatic diplomacy. Both countries realise that
their economic goals cannot be achieved without good relations with the
US. Besides, India's US policy is reinforced by political factors and close
civil society ties.
The fact that they both subscribe
to the multipolarity thesis does not mean that they necessarily have the
same vision of a multipolar order. China expects to be recognised as a
great power relatively early and has shown no particular interest in holding
open the door to others thereafter. It has not opposed India's claim to
a permanent seat in the Security Council, but neither has it endorsed it.
The relations between the two rising
powers will reflect competitive as well as complementary interests. Both
countries should recognise, however, that their basic interests are complementary
in character. In the economic sphere, their rapidly expanding markets offer
new opportunities that far outweigh the challenges of competition. In the
political sphere, sustained internal stability in China is of very real
importance for India and other neighbouring countries, as an unstable China
could pose a big danger. Likewise, India's continued adherence to an independent
and self-reliant foreign and defence policy is in accord with China's interests.
If India were ever to lose confidence in its ability to defend itself against
a regional power, it would have no option but to turn to a global superpower
for help.
In general, India-China relations
are moving on the right track. Though the boundary issue is yet to be resolved,
border conflicts have been averted by the Agreement on Maintenance of Peace
and Tranquillity along the Line of Actual Control. Confidence- building
measures have been implemented and military contacts have been deepened.
Bilateral trade rose from $3 billion in 2001 to $5 billion in 2002 and
saw a spectacular increase of over 70 per cent between January and April
this year, compared to the same period last year. This augurs well for
achieving the $10 billion target indicated by former premier Zhu Rongji
during his visit to India last year. Besides, direct flights have been
introduced and India has been included as an approved destination for Chinese
tourists. Most importantly, regular high-level visits have provided the
necessary impetus for strengthening the bilateral ties.
To further strengthen these ties,
China and India should be sensitive to each other's legitimate concerns.
China is the only country that does not recognise Sikkim as an integral
part of India. On its part, India should continue to be sensitive to legitimate
Chinese concerns over the activities of Tibetans in India. Though most
of these Tibetans are law-abiding, a few troublemakers do not hesitate
to defy the law, especially during visits by Chinese leaders. On several
occasions, India has had to take firm action to prevent such unlawful activities
as are prejudicial to its national interests. At the same time, India cannot
prevent anyone from exercising his or her legal right to freedom of expression
and China should realise this fact.
These issues will doubtless figure
in A.B. Vajpayee's talks with the Chinese leaders. The Ministry of External
Affairs has made careful preparations and there is every reason to believe
that the visit will have a positive outcome. Speculation over what might
emerge on specific issues will not help the negotiators. Instead, it will
raise public expectations and pressurise the negotiators to show their
hand in advance or ensure "success" by making inappropriate concessions.
We must remember that the goal of diplomacy is to arrive at open agreements
through confidential negotiations.
(The author is a former Indian ambassador
to China and is currently associated with the Observer Research Foundation.)
