Author: M.V. Kamath
Publication: Afternoon Despatch
& Courier
Date: September 12, 2003
Introduction: The Outlook-Gallup
Opinion Poll had some startling revelations on Indo-Pak. issues
How reliable are opinion polls?
How much trust can you put in them? A year ago, prior to the Assembly elections
in Gujarat, there were half a dozen polls on who will win and except for
one, the others were wide off the mark. Outlook even predicted that Congress
could win. And what happened later does not have to be stressed.
Outlook has published the results
of another poll (August 25) taken this time in Pakistan which is intriguing.
It commissioned Gallup-Business Research Bureau to conduct the first-ever
opinion survey in Pakistan on many Indo-Pak. issues. Obviously concerned
about credibility, besides the fact that Gallup-Business Research Bureau
is the Pakistani affiliate of Gallop International, Outlook chose to commission
this organisation on the grounds that it is "today the market leader in
media audience research, household consumer panels, third party evaluation
studies and opinion polls".
Pakistani sentiment
According to Outlook, the survey
was conducted among 1,338 statistically selected respondents on August
3 and 4, 2003. Nearly 50 per cent of the sample comprised women. The sample
represented a cross-section of various income and education segments of
the population and covered all four provinces of the country.
The sample, besides, was divided
roughly proportional to the population of each province in the total national
population and the fieldwork was carried out in 13 cities including Islamabad,
Rawalpindi, the four provincial capitals (Lahore, Karachi, Peshawar and
Quetta). The other cities were fieldwork was conducted have been identified
as Sukkur, Hyderabad in Sindh, Multan, Faisalabad, Gujarat, Sahiwal and
Sargodha in Punjab and Mardan in NEFP.
Some of the poll findings do not
reflect what we are being told about popular Pakistani sentiments by Indian
visitors to the country. Thus, we are told that popular sentiment in Pakistan
is veering towards friendship with India and that Delhi must cash in on
it.
But what does the Gallup-Outlook
Opinion Poll reveal? The poll shows that 54 per cent of the people believe
India is the "enemy" and 31 per cent see India as "rival" and only 15 per
cent think India is a "potential friend". Potential friend, mind, not a
real and present friend.
What does that say about the journalists
and others who went to Pakistan the other day and returned wide-eyed over
the love and attention showered on them? That they were taken for a ride?
Then again citizens were asked whether
they would accept converting the LoC into an international border as the
only solution to the Kashmir problem. And what was their answer? 69 per
cent said they won't, which is exactly what General Musharraf has been
saying. Then, what is this talk of offering friendship to Pakistan?
Besides, consider the following:
When asked whether they thought it necessary to resolve the Kashmir issue
first for establishing peaceful relations between India and Pakistan, 79
per cent said "Yes" and only 19 per cent said "No".
What did they think about Vajpayee's
recent peace initiative? 47 per cent dismissed it as a "gimmick" and only
26 per cent thought it was "serious".
And what did they think about Kargil
as an operation? For 40 per cent, it was "useful", for 21 per cent it was
"unavoidable" and only 31 per cent believed it was a mistake.
And to cap it all, 52 per cent believe
Musharraf is serious about making efforts towards ushering peace with India!
As many as 62 per cent of those polled, however, do not trust the United
States to act as a broker between India and Pakistan. If the poll truly
and correctly reflects Pakistani public opinion, then all the hype over
Laloo Prasad Yadav-led team receiving warm welcome etc. etc. must be taken
with a pinch of salt and Musharraf is wise not to go against public sentiment.
What is significant is that when
asked whether in their view those polled would like to have trade relations
with India, 63 per cent felt they should. What does that mean? Why would
Pakistan want to have trade with India which is dismissed as an "enemy"?
An accompanying article in Outlook
by two Pakistanis, Amir Mir in Lahore and Mariana Baabar in Islamabad provide
an answer. They write: "Paan Gali in Lahore is an alley that wouldn't be
out-of-place in Delhi's Chandni Chowk. Shops here are cheek-by-jowl and
people mill around in this narrow street. They are here for Indian goods,
from paan sold at thrice the local price, to sarees, cosmetics and even
kitchen utensils. The mood has been particularly upbeat since the Delhi-Lahore
bus service resumed. Shopkeepers can now stock goods Pakistani tourists
on their return from India bring back, consequently easing their dependence
on the prohibitive Dubai route to replenish supplies. For more than a year,
when India and Pakistan massed troops on the border, Paan Gali had witnessed
a 50 per cent slump in sales. Optimism has returned to Paan Gali, as have
shoppers. Customers demand every item advertised on Indian channels. Illyas
Beg, a shopkeeper thinks he will now have a steady supply of Indian goods
to match the demand..."
On the one hand more than half the
people consider India an "enemy". But apparently where paan, sarees and
other consumer goods are concerned, Pakistanis are willing to trade with
India, the enemy.
Kashmir dispute
Outlook staffers spoke personally
to a lot of individuals and received a wide range of replies, from the
most positive to the utterly negative. Thus, columnist Ayaz Amir is quoted
as saying that the 'Crush India' rhetoric "has little lure for Pakistanis".
But then Lashkar-e-Toiba's founder Prof. Hafiz Mohammad Saeed is quoted
as saying: "Dialogue will never resolve the Kashmir dispute. The Pakistan
Army should get ready to wage a war against India to liberate the oppressed
people of Kashmir".
So who speaks for Pakistan? Says
Outlook: "Make no mistake: anti-India voices will not disappear overnight.
They might even become shriller in the competition between peaceniks and
hardliners for a larger share of the Pakistani mind".
And then the weekly adds: "Pakistanis
want peace, and yet they are not prepared to accept the LoC as the international
border. Does that sound confusing? Well, it all depends on how one views
it: a glass half-empty or half-full". That is poor consolation. What is
half-full is also half-empty.
So what should India do in the circumstances?
Forget politics and concentrate in selling paan? Banarsi sarees? And Lakme
Face Powder? Kashmir continues to bug propaganda-fed Pakistanis.
According to the Poll, Kashmir issue
ranks first (64 per cent) in order of importance, democracy ranks second
(19 per cent) and fundamentalism comes last (17 per cent). If fundamentalism,
then, only of minor importance to Pakistanis? Who is indulging in cross-border
terrorism, then?
For all that, the Outlook-Gallup
Poll comes as an eye-opener. It is nice to think Laloo Prasad Yadav is
immensely popular in Pakistan. Only that does not change the reality.
