Author: Simon Henderson
Publication: The New Indian Express
Date: December 11, 2003
Forget, for the moment, Saddam's
weapons of mass destruction - or lack thereof. Consider instead the other
WMD conundrum: Iran. Events in Pakistan, where two nuclear scientists were
arrested last week, suggest the whole issue is about to blow. (Figuratively,
that is.)
Last month, the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations nuclear watchdog, declared, implausibly,
that there was no evidence of Iran's trying to build an atomic bomb. Washington
was gob-smacked. As with the proverbial duck, Iran's efforts looked like
a nuclear-weapons program and sounded like a nuclear-weapons program. The
trouble was the lack of proof sufficient to convince the pedants of the
IAEA (which, incidentally, has never by itself discovered a clandestine
nuclear-weapons program).
The Pakistani link is crucial to
showing Iran's true motives. Pakistan, which tested two nuclear bombs in
1998, used centrifuges to make "highly" enriched (i.e., bomb-grade) uranium.
Iran also has centrifuges. The IAEA discovered traces of highly enriched
uranium on some of them. Tehran's reported explanation? "They came like
that." From where? "We bought the equipment from a middleman."
The gossip is that Pakistan sold,
directly or indirectly, the centrifuge equipment to Iran. The technology
involves aluminum tubes - confusingly, the same technology that Saddam
Hussein was reported to be interested in, although, to the glee of the
war doubters, aluminum tubes found in Iraq so far have proved to be nothing
more dangerous than casings for battlefield rockets. Aluminum tubes for
centrifuges are decidedly "old-tech" but, in the absence of an alternative,
can do the job, given enough time.
Officially, Pakistan denies it transferred
centrifuge technology to Iran. But that still leaves open the possibility
that Pakistani scientists did a private deal with Tehran, for money or
mischief. The suspect in the frame? Dr. Abdul Qader Khan, who retired nearly
three years ago as head of the eponymous Khan Research Laboratory (KRL).
But despite Khan's background, there is evidence that he is being set up
and is, on this issue, innocent.
The current state of the friendship
between the U.S. and Pakistan is complicated at best, as American soldiers
being shot at from Pakistani positions along the border with Afghanistan
will testify. Osama bin Laden was reportedly sighted in the remote north-Pakistani
town of Chitral recently. A more likely lair is somewhere in the vast,
sprawling townships that make up Karachi, Pakistan's largest city on the
Arabian Sea coast. President Musharraf, who retains the army uniform he
was wearing when a 1999 coup brought him to power, juggles these tensions
with Washington. Last month he was reported in the Los Angeles Times as
saying that a trip by Khan to Iran had been about short-range missiles
rather than nuclear issues. And, earlier this year, the Los Angeles Times
quoted former Iranian diplomats as saying that Khan made several trips
to Iran, beginning in 1987, and was given a villa on the Caspian Sea coast
in return for his assistance.
This last report caught my eye as
I once asked Khan whether he had ever been to Iran. I can remember his
reply clearly: "Never." I have spoken with Khan or exchanged letters with
him frequently over the years. He is often evasive but I think I can tell
when he is telling a diplomatic lie. For the rest of the time, I think
he is straightforward with me. I understand he stands by his claim of never
having visited Iran.
The two nuclear scientists arrested
last week were departmental directors at KRL. Dr. Mohammed Farooq and Dr.
Yassin Chowhan were picked up at 10 P.M. on the night of December 1. They
were taken away by Pakistani intelligence agents, accompanied, it is alleged,
by English-speaking men, apparently CIA officers. Their homes in Rawalpindi,
the city which merges into the capital, Islamabad, are reportedly under
surveillance.
Dr. Farooq was in charge of the
section at KRL that dealt with ties to foreign suppliers and customers
for KRL products. KRL also makes a range of battlefield products for the
Pakistani army, such as a version of a Chinese handheld antiaircraft missile.
(It also makes the Pakistani version of the North Korean nuclear-capable
Nodong missile.) Dr. Chowhan ran one of the assembly lines at KRL.
The assumption is that the two men
will be held until they confess to assisting Dr. Khan in supplying centrifuges
to Iran. Dr. Khan, now retired, is nominally an adviser to President Musharraf,
but there is little evidence to show that his advice is sought very often.
In the bitchy world of Pakistani politics, there is resentment that Dr.
Khan is popularly considered "the father of the Islamic bomb."
So if Dr. Khan or some other Pakistani
scientist did not supply centrifuge technology to Iran, who did? Suspicion
falls on a Sri Lankan merchant formally based in Dubai, a member of his
country's Muslim minority who has now returned home. The businessman acted
as a conduit for Pakistan's orders of components and manufacturing equipment.
Using that knowledge, he put in for extra orders of equipment and arranged
a side deal with Iran. This scenario dates the start of Iran's centrifuge
project to 1979, eight years earlier than the IAEA's assessment. Iran has
refused to tell the IAEA the identity of this middleman.
But what about the traces of highly
enriched uranium the IAEA found on the equipment in Iran? KRL apparently
still uses some of its aluminum centrifuges alongside the later and more
efficient ones made out of special steel. Others have been "scrapped and
crushed." None has been exported. Perhaps Iran has been more successful
at enrichment than it wants to admit.
Washington's motives are reasonably
clear, even if not fully explained in public. Relations with Pakistan are
very important. Iran's nuclear ambitions must be curtailed. Presumably
if Dr. Khan is blamed, President Musharraf is forced, through embarrassment,
into more cooperation with the U.S. But Iran's nuclear progress might be
understated, and activities of an unscrupulous middleman might escape closer
inspection. As with centrifuges themselves, there is a lot of spin.
- Simon Henderson is a London-based
energy consultant and associate of the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy.
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/henderson200312110800.asp
This is a good sign that USA is
waking up to the reality of the Islamic bomb in Pakistan. The next steps
should be to achieve the aim of de-nuking the islamic nuke in Pakistan.
It is too risky for the comfort of US security to allow the nuke facilities
to continue to exist in this failed state. If any fundamentalist group
gains control in Pakistan, the first enemy on the list will be USA. USA
knows that Pakistan survives only because US is buttressing the state.
But, then USA should know how to dismount a tiger of USA's own creation.
If help is needed, Bharat and Israel will surely come forward to help USA
in the de-nuking operations.
Kalyanaraman
FBI arrests Pak nuclear scientists
for leaking technology to Iran Thursday December 11 2003 15:15 IST IANS
ISLAMABAD: Two top Pakistani nuclear
scientists have been arrested by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation
(FBI) for allegedly transferring technology to Iran, according to reports.
The FBI is believed to have arrested
Yasin Chohan, Director General of Khan Research Laboratories (KRL), Pakistan's
premier nuclear facility, and Farooq (no second name), a Director, Dawn
said on Thursday.
Farooq was said to be "very close"
to KRL founder Abdul Qadeer Khan, widely acknowledged as the father of
Pakistan's nuclear programme.
"Nobody in Khan Research Laboratories
exactly knew about the whereabouts of the two scientists and it is believed
they have been picked up by FBI. When contacted, the public relations officer
of KRL said he was completely in the dark on the issue," Dawn said.
Abdul Qadeer Khan could not be reached
for comment.
"Khan is not at home and it is very
difficult to tell where he will be at this time," a person who received
the telephone call at his residence told Dawn.
The issue figured in parliament
with Senator Sajid Mir raising a point of order in the upper house. "He
lamented that those who had made the country's defence strong were now
picked up to please some foreign countries," The News reported.
"KRL, which was considered a solid
guarantee of national defence, had been opened to foreigners to arrest
Pakistani scientists," Mir charged. "With this act the government is now
a security risk for the country," Senator Khursheed Ahmed Khan of the opposition
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) religious alliance, told reporters.
"The government should take the
people and parliament into confidence over the arrest of scientists," demanded
MMA Senator Ishaq Dar, charging that the government had decided to roll
back its nuclear programme.
"Our nation should launch joint
efforts to safeguard the vital programme otherwise the US will take it
over," he maintained.
The Pakistani government reacted
cautiously on the issue. A foreign office spokesman said people associated
with sensitive programmes "are governed by a stringent personnel dependability
and debrief programme. This is a normal practice, especially in nuclear
weapons states. These people are aware of their responsibilities in terms
of their efficiency and conduct."
"Under the programme, individuals
may have to undergo debriefing sessions and the matter referred to falls
within the scope of this practice," the spokesman said.
