Author: Seshadri Chari
Publication: Organiser
Date: January 18, 2004
Introduction: No SAARCasm: The General
changes his tune
How the West was won is an old story.
Although neither New Delhi nor Islamabad wants to talk in terms of victory
the recently concluded SAARC meeting has many success stories to write
home about. But one meeting that takes the cake, or any other equivalent
to the delicious Islamabad sweet, is the "joint statement", which came
as a reward for all the back-breaking diplomatic moves made by the Indian
side. Even as the Indian team led by the Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee
moved into the cozy and comfortable hotel in Islamabad, there were enough
indications from the side of the host that they would eagerly look forward
to a meeting between the Indian PM and the Pakistani President. The courtesy
meetings were no doubt confirmed, but what was being eagerly looked forward
to was the epic meeting between the big two.
The question Pakistan observers
are asking one another is what prompted India to agree to the joint declaration
and what or who impelled Islamabad to give the green signal for the statement
that they seemed to be more than willing to sign. One thing that appears
to be clear is that both sides knew what the other side wanted. India made
it abundantly clear during and even before the negotiations that there
could be no meaningful dialogue with Islamabad without a guarantee that
Pakistan would take the issue of terrorism seriously. In return Islamabad
seemed to be in an urgent need to get a nod from New Delhi for a dialogue.
"We know what we wanted and we know what they wanted", said a senior official.
New Delhi has been saying for long
that for a meaningful dialogue and confidence-building measures, there
has to be a terrorism-free atmosphere. It is no secret that Islamabad actively
aided and abetted terrorism and even used it as an effective tool in its
policy towards this country. India had time and again warned the world
community of the dangers of dealing with Islamabad while not condemning
its stand on terrorism. As the run-up to the SAARC meet began, New Delhi
made it clear that no mention of any bilateral issue would be countenanced
in any of the proceedings. The early signals of change in the mindset of
Pakistan came during the speech of the Pakistani Prime Minister Jamali
who studiously kept the 'K' word out of his speech. Kashmir, which would
otherwise form a major part of any speech by any Pakistani leader, did
not find even an indirect reference in Jamali's address. Taking this cue
the Indian delegation agreed to the much-hyped Vajpayee- Musharraf meeting.
Apart from the meeting, there could
be many reasons that have led to the mellowing down of Islamabad. The world
is a changed place after 9/11. Little wonder Pakistan has come under serious
pressure to dismantle its own terror units after the terrorist attacks
on the US. Much to the discomfort of the jehadi forces and the highly vocal
clergy, Islamabad came down heavily on some of the terrorist outfits. Of
the three power centres in Pakistan, the clergy has emerged as the most
powerful in recent years overshadowing even the army, not to speak of the
political establishment. The only way for the military dictator to deal
with the growing belligerence of the clergy is to convince them that he
has got India talking to them without giving away anything. But New Delhi's
negotiators stood their ground and made it clear to the General that there
could be no more CBMs unless Pakistan assures that no territory under its
control would be allowed to be used by the terrorists. Close on the heels
of growing international pressure and India's tough stand, the General
himself was the target of three reported attacks on his life, not to mention
the unreported ones.
The urgency on the part of the Pakistani
President's efforts for a joint statement could be gauged by the fact that
he directly called for a fresh beginning of talks and issued instructions
to his team of negotiators, informs a highly placed source. The million-dollar
question however is how far can Islamabad be trusted. Going by the way
Islamabad played the perfect host and looking at the praise showered on
the Indian Prime Minister, it is not difficult to guess the stress under
which the General is working. "He is in dire need to have something in
his hand to show to the jehadi forces", says an official in the foreign
office. But given the complex dynamics of the politics in Pakistan, the
proverbial camel can take a turn in any direction. The General is astride
the tiger. He can dismount, only at his peril.