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But can he be trusted?

But can he be trusted?

Author: Seshadri Chari
Publication: Organiser
Date: January 18, 2004

Introduction: No SAARCasm: The General changes his tune

How the West was won is an old story. Although neither New Delhi nor Islamabad wants to talk in terms of victory the recently concluded SAARC meeting has many success stories to write home about. But one meeting that takes the cake, or any other equivalent to the delicious Islamabad sweet, is the "joint statement", which came as a reward for all the back-breaking diplomatic moves made by the Indian side. Even as the Indian team led by the Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee moved into the cozy and comfortable hotel in Islamabad, there were enough indications from the side of the host that they would eagerly look forward to a meeting between the Indian PM and the Pakistani President. The courtesy meetings were no doubt confirmed, but what was being eagerly looked forward to was the epic meeting between the big two.

The question Pakistan observers are asking one another is what prompted India to agree to the joint declaration and what or who impelled Islamabad to give the green signal for the statement that they seemed to be more than willing to sign. One thing that appears to be clear is that both sides knew what the other side wanted. India made it abundantly clear during and even before the negotiations that there could be no meaningful dialogue with Islamabad without a guarantee that Pakistan would take the issue of terrorism seriously. In return Islamabad seemed to be in an urgent need to get a nod from New Delhi for a dialogue. "We know what we wanted and we know what they wanted", said a senior official.

New Delhi has been saying for long that for a meaningful dialogue and confidence-building measures, there has to be a terrorism-free atmosphere. It is no secret that Islamabad actively aided and abetted terrorism and even used it as an effective tool in its policy towards this country. India had time and again warned the world community of the dangers of dealing with Islamabad while not condemning its stand on terrorism. As the run-up to the SAARC meet began, New Delhi made it clear that no mention of any bilateral issue would be countenanced in any of the proceedings. The early signals of change in the mindset of Pakistan came during the speech of the Pakistani Prime Minister Jamali who studiously kept the 'K' word out of his speech. Kashmir, which would otherwise form a major part of any speech by any Pakistani leader, did not find even an indirect reference in Jamali's address. Taking this cue the Indian delegation agreed to the much-hyped Vajpayee- Musharraf meeting.

Apart from the meeting, there could be many reasons that have led to the mellowing down of Islamabad. The world is a changed place after 9/11. Little wonder Pakistan has come under serious pressure to dismantle its own terror units after the terrorist attacks on the US. Much to the discomfort of the jehadi forces and the highly vocal clergy, Islamabad came down heavily on some of the terrorist outfits. Of the three power centres in Pakistan, the clergy has emerged as the most powerful in recent years overshadowing even the army, not to speak of the political establishment. The only way for the military dictator to deal with the growing belligerence of the clergy is to convince them that he has got India talking to them without giving away anything. But New Delhi's negotiators stood their ground and made it clear to the General that there could be no more CBMs unless Pakistan assures that no territory under its control would be allowed to be used by the terrorists. Close on the heels of growing international pressure and India's tough stand, the General himself was the target of three reported attacks on his life, not to mention the unreported ones.

The urgency on the part of the Pakistani President's efforts for a joint statement could be gauged by the fact that he directly called for a fresh beginning of talks and issued instructions to his team of negotiators, informs a highly placed source. The million-dollar question however is how far can Islamabad be trusted. Going by the way Islamabad played the perfect host and looking at the praise showered on the Indian Prime Minister, it is not difficult to guess the stress under which the General is working. "He is in dire need to have something in his hand to show to the jehadi forces", says an official in the foreign office. But given the complex dynamics of the politics in Pakistan, the proverbial camel can take a turn in any direction. The General is astride the tiger. He can dismount, only at his peril.
 


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