Author: Swapan Dasgupta
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: May 30, 2004
Devi Lal, Haryana stalwart and former
Deputy Prime Minister under V P Singh, had a very earthy wisdom. Confronted
by an abstruse exercise in ideological hair-splitting before the 1989 poll,
he asked: "Who reads manifestos?"
It's a piece of political advice
that many Indians are hoping that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will heed
during his tenure. It was bad enough for the soft-spoken economist to suffer
the ignominy of being nominated to the top job by Sonia Gandhi rather than
being elected by the Congress Parliamentary Party. He had to suffer the
additional slight of not having the prerogative of choosing his own Council
of Ministers. To compound his disabilities, he is hamstrung by a document
called the Common Minimum Programme (CMP) whose release had the stock markets
voting with their pockets.
Lacking any pre-poll understanding
about the future, it is understandable that the United Progressive Alliance
had to forge an agenda of governance. What seems less obvious is why the
Congress had to capitulate all way to a Left that refuses to assume direct
responsibility for the back-room power it wields. The CMP is more like
a Communist Minimum Programme than a document reflecting the convoluted
mandate of 2004. Those familiar with Communism will see unmistakable traces
of the Popular Front approach of the 1930s. It reflects what CPM's Prakash
Karat has identified as the Left determination to "counter the dominance
of ruling class policies."
The implications for the direction
in which India will move are horrifying. The CMP is a regressive, 1960s-style
document with potential to blunt India's competitive edge, re-introduce
a high-cost economy with in-built inefficiencies, dilute national security
and derail India's distinctive global role.
If the CMP is pursued in letter
and spirit, the first casualty is likely to be the economy. The Congress,
some of its allies and the Left appear to have equated the defeat of the
NDA with a categorical rejection of economic reforms. What matters is not
so much that disinvestments - the strategy of unlocking national resources
for infrastructure and social sector development - have been put on hold.
Far more worrying is that the CMP will introduce a high tax, high inflation
and high inefficiency regime.
With minimal Government set to be
replaced by intrusive State intervention, we can expect the UPA to come
down hard on the middle class and corporate sector to bankroll its high-cost
schemes. This will lead to an inevitable return of tax evasion, patronage
politics and pilferage of Government resources. It is not these ills were
not there under the NDA. However, the trend was towards transparency and
a modicum of ethical capitalism. The direction seems set to be reversed.
With militant trade unionism receiving a boost and strictures being imposed
on labour flexibility, India's global competitive edge will be blunted.
The real beneficiary of this retreat from sensible economic policies will
be China - a fact that should not displease the Left.
This backward slide seems set to
be replicated in India's global role. Under the NDA, India inched towards
a strategic doctrine that combined regional clout with economic potential.
India sought a major role as US' strategic partner and as an economic counterweight
to China.
Judging by the CMP, this will be
junked. With emphasis on anti- America grandstanding, the CMP is pressing
for a return to days of non-alignment. It is an absurd approach. Apart
from the fact that there is no alternate superpower to accord tacit protection,
India has built strategic bridges with the West to prevent Pakistan from
leveraging its post-9/11 clout in J&K. The CMP proposes to squander
that advantage. From an aspiring power, the UPA seems intent on pushing
India back to its Third World status.
None of these developments, however,
are inevitable. Once the full implication of the CMP sinks in, Manmohan
will have two choices. Either he can, like Indira Gandhi in 1969, decide
that the future lies in veering sharply Left. Alternatively, he can emulate
the rustic wisdom of Devi Lal and conveniently forget that there is something
called the CMP. He can also do what his political mentor Narasimha Rao
did - pursue national interests over dogma.
