Author: Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: June 2, 2004
In March this year I had commented
in these columns that "if the general election for any political party
becomes an occasion to merely maintain status quo, then it shows the party
in poor light". The comment made in regard to the prospects of the Left
parties in the Lok Sabha elections further stated that the four parties
comprising the LF had "little to look forward to except retaining their
handful of MPs in the hope that they would be able to play a decisive role
in the process of government formation in the event of a hung Parliament".
When the electoral surprise of
2004 hit the nation, I was a bit discomfited by the fact that the Left
parties had staged their best ever electoral performance and played a central
role in the process of Government formation. I wondered whether I had made
an error of judgement in March and been too harsh on the Left parties.
Hindsight is a great tool when it
comes to political analysis. On the face of it, I erred greatly because
while the Left parties were expected to play just a marginal role, these
have emerged as one of the main supporting partners of the Government and
one of its members is poised to become the Speaker of the 14th Lok Sabha.
But I beg to differ from the popularly held belief that there has been
a fundamental shift in the nature and character of the political clout
of the Left parties. At best, the greater visibility of Left leaders in
the corridors of power and on TV news channels is a temporary phenomenon
that would last as long as this Government.
The clout of the Left parties is
linked to the life of this Government because it would, in all probability,
be replaced by a government either headed by a Congress that does not depend
as heavily on the Left parties as now, or by a BJP-led government at the
Centre. The chances of the Left being able to take the lead in forging
together a Third Front that goes on to become the leading pole of Indian
polity remains as bleak as ever. The chances of a conglomerate without
the Congress or the BJP getting another innings in power with the likes
of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Chandrababu Naidu, Laloo Yadav, M Karunanidhi or
Sharad Pawar getting a shot at governance with the support of the Left
parties, appears rather remote at this stage.
So the Left parties are still saddled
with the point made in March: "Elections are meant to be opportunities
for parties to widen their social and electoral bases; win more seats from
more varied regions and thereby increase their influence in the sphere
of policy formulation. But if none of these are to happen and parties enter
the fray with the sole aim of retaining their presence in the areas that
have been their strongholds, then it suggests stagnation. It also means
there is something fundamentally wrong with the political party both in
terms of electoral strategy and policies that it is pursuing."
Lest anyone argues that both the
present and previous contentions are motivated, let us look at cold figures:
The Left Front has increased its tally in the Lok Sabha from 43 to 61 -
a jump of almost 30 per cent. But of the 18 extra seats that the Left parties
have won, just three are from states besides the ones which have been the
bastions of the Left for decades: Kerala, West Bengal and Tripura. In the
previous Lok Sabha, the CPI(M) had one MP each from Bihar and Tamil Nadu
while the CPI had just one from Punjab. In the current Lok Sabha, the CPI(M)
has two representatives from Tamil Nadu and one from Andhra Pradesh while
the CPI has one seat each from Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Jharkhand.
The other two constituents of the Left Front, the Forward Bloc and the
Revolutionary Socialist Party, neither previously had any representative
from states besides Kerala and West Bengal nor do they have now.
In essence, this means that of the
61 seats the Left Front has bagged this time, it has won 55 of them from
Kerala, West Bengal and Tripura. Now these states account for a total of
64 seats in the Lok Sabha and such a high strike rate (nearly 86 per cent)
is a freak phenomenon that can happen only during a bewildering election
like the recently concluded one. It would take extreme good fortune (and
total disarray in the Congress camp) to repeat this performance - forget
improving upon it - in the next elections. Despite its proximity and influence
over the Government, the Left Front still remains a regional force limited
to three states accounting for just a shade more than 10 per cent of the
Lok Sabha.
The dilemma that the Left parties
faced over whether to join the Government or not were not as acute as in
1996 for two reasons - the major argument in favour and against had run
its course previously and while the Government in 1996 was supported by
the Congress from outside, this one was led by it. Now, with 86 per cent
of the Left Front seats in Parliament coming from states where the parties
were bitter foes of the Congress over several decades, there was no way
that the State units of these parties would want to jeopardise their political
dominance because of the wishes of a section of the central leadership.
The Left Front in all the three states exists on the basis of anti-Congressism
and despite the emergence of marginal Third forces in these states the
units find the fire in their bellies only when confronted with the Congress
flag.
The problem for the Left Front is
that despite being a winner in the elections, it is not going to be a winner
in the politics of the country. True, the Left has stuck to its avowed
policy of ensuring that a non-BJP-led Government is in power at the Centre,
but if there is any consolidation of anti-BJP forces with the Congress
as the fulcrum, the Left parties will play the role of the proverbial character
artist. The only way this can be reversed is if the Congress opts to play
second fiddle in the three states and thereby enables the BJP or its allies
to emerge as the real challenger to the Left's dominance. After increasing
its tally from 114 to 145, there is little likelihood of the Congress calling
"pass" in the three states, because of these at least 20 seats in Kerala
are often governed by the law of alternating electoral returns: Since it
was the LDF's turn this year, the next time we can expect a good showing
from the UDF.
However, even in the deepseated
- and unaccepted - gloom that would be there within the Left Front, a wise
step has been taken: That of forging a nascent counter-balancing force
to the Congress within the non-BJP political grouping. This role is not
new because the same role was performed by it within the Opposition during
the tenure of the 12th Lok Sabha. Now it seeks to put together a conglomerate
that would prevent the Congress from running away alone with the gains
of this coalition. Currently comprising the Samajwadi Party, it is this
group that the Left parties can look forward to in the event of the Congress
beginning to first target the social and electoral base of its allies.
Normally, the politics of the Opposition is considered a more interesting
spectacle than the politics of the ruling combine. Over the next several
months both would be equally interesting because the verdict of 2004 has
thrown up no real clear winners.
