Author: Shireen M Mazari (smnews80@hotmail.com)
Publication: The Jang
Date: September 1, 2004
URL: http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/sep2004-daily/01-09-2004/oped/o3.htm
Even as Pakistanis (at least a certain
section of the elite) continue to be mesmerised by all things Indian and
open their arms to various Indian delegations - ranging from "peace" delegations
to trade groups - the more sceptical amongst us are well on our way to
being proven right regarding the direction of the new detente between Pakistan
and India. Let us recall that most of the detente was made possible by
unilateral and far-reaching moves from Pakistan which went to the heart
of the major issue preventing peace in the subcontinent - the issue of
Kashmir. From a unilateral ceasefire along the LoC, which allowed India
to complete its illegal fencing similar to the Israel illegal fence, to
a commitment at the highest level to ensure there were no training camps
and infiltration of "militants" in Pakistan and AJK, the substantive peace
initiatives - some could even say concessions - have come from Pakistan.
Meanwhile, what has India done?
Focused on the much-touted "people- to-people" contact intended to woo
the average Pakistani - but primarily targeting the urban elite - accompanied
by a clever propaganda blitz trying to show the benefits of increased Pakistan-India
trade and travel. And, so, we have been told how India has granted Pakistan
MFN status, while we have not reciprocated. But the Indians have failed
to mention that alongside the MFN stunt, they have imposed non-tariff barriers
(NTBs), which ensure that Pakistani exporters do not benefit from the MFN
status. Of course, this is an old Indian trick when it comes to trade agreements
with its South Asian neighbours but Pakistan has only now taken note of
it and found the need to ask the Indians to remove these NTBs.
However, what is not understandable
is why Pakistan is not prepared to raise this issue in the WTO secretariat,
given that India has claimed to have given Pakistan MFN status, but is
in practice not implementing this - in direct contravention of the WTO
requirements. Pakistan, of course, has not yet given MFN status to India
so the issue is moot for us. Yet, Pakistan continues to be in a reactive
mode - judging by the statement given by Parliamentary Secretary for Commerce,
Mazhar Arif Qureshi, who declared that Pakistan would only take up this
violation of the MFN rule in the WTO when India raises the issue of non-award
of MFN status to New Delhi by Islamabad. The logic is a little absurd given
that India has ostensibly subscribed to the WTO norm in relation to Pakistan,
and should therefore implement it, while Pakistan has not yet subscribed
to this norm in relation to India, so it is yet to undertake such an obligation.
Even without giving India MFN status, there is a major imbalance in the
Pakistan-India trade in India's favour.
Another Indian propaganda hype that
continues is the demand for the restoration of the Muzzafarabad-Srinagar
bus route. But if the Indians were really serious on this one and saw an
urgency in it, they would be asking for the restoration of this service
specifically for Kashmiris on both sides of the LoC on the basis of special
permits as was the case in the fifties. This would be the quickest and
politically most viable means of increasing interaction amongst Kashmiris,
but the Indian government clearly is seeking other gains from this issue
and trying to project that Pakistan is delaying progress on this front.
Unfortunately, we are not as adept in the propaganda game as the Indians.
The fact of the matter is that India
has done almost nothing in terms of substantive moves towards peace. After
all, what is the impediment to peace? Clearly, the unresolved issue of
the right of self-determination of the Kashmiri people. On that count,
India is not prepared to show any flexibility despite Pakistan's initiatives
on this issue. Instead, India continues to maintain an aggressive declaratory
stance even as its delegations come to woo Pakistani civil society! We
have now been hearing for some time since Pakistan's peace initiatives,
ad nauseaum, Indian officialdom's accusations against Pakistan "not doing
enough" on stopping infiltration across the LoC! What, one may ask, is
India doing to move towards resolution of the Kashmir issue? After all,
lest the Indians suffer from total amnesia, they took the issue to the
UN in 1948 under Chapter VI of the UN Charter dealing with Pacific Settlement
of Disputes. This clearly meant that India recognised that the issue was
a dispute between two sovereign member states of the UN and was seeking
UN intervention to resolve the dispute peacefully. If it had regarded Pakistan
as an aggressor on the Kashmir issue it would have taken the dispute to
the UN under Chapter VII, which deals with "Threats to the Peace, Breaches
of the Peace and Acts of Aggression."
Given this new form of game playing
by India on the peace issue, what is surprising and at times alarming is
Pakistan's seeming complacency. A most recent, and perhaps the most disturbing,
example of this has been the latest incident, reported in the press on
Tuesday, 31st August, in which an Indian "civilian" helicopter allegedly
intruded into Pakistani airspace for around thirty minutes and hovered
over Lahore seemingly undetected. According to the news story, no Pakistani
agency detected the plane and Lahore's air traffic control (ATC) was informed
by the Amritsar ATC that the helicopter had landed back in Indian territory.
Again, as the news report states, the PAF chief did not deny violation
of Pakistan's air space, but termed the story as being exaggerated. Be
that as it may, some very serious questions arise: One, how come there
was no air force response, since the purpose of the helicopter's intrusion
was not clear? Two, how did the chopper evade all our air defences? Have
we become so sanguine about the threat from India that we do not maintain
any level of readiness at all to deal with air space intrusions? Given
the close defence cooperation between India and Israel, who is to determine
who was in the supposedly civilian helicopter? Even worse, a day later,
before writing this column, for over two and a half hours I was unable
to get any definitive response from the quarters concerned as to what happened.
Are we so sanguine about our external
threats now despite no progress on the issues of conflict between Pakistan
and India? And the chopper incidence is simply the latest and most glaring
in a series of strange cases which in normal times would surely have been
regarded as political and security concerns for us. There was the incident
of the scouts being sent to Srinagar (July 2004), ostensibly as part of
a Saarc delegation - a decision approved by the Ministry of Education -
despite no positive moves relating to the resolution of the Kashmir issue
by India. Presumably, the scouts travelled to Srinagar on Indian visas
- was this not an indirect acceptance of the Indian Occupation of Kashmir?
There is something definitely rotten in this scout issue.
Nor is this all. There is a report
that a new border dispute is arising between Pakistan and India, even while
they have failed to resolve the conflicts over Sir Creek and the Kashmir
issue remains the major hurdle to peace. This time the dispute is along
the Working Boundary in the Jammu sector (along the strategic Chicken Neck
area) where 35 border demarcation pillars have gone missing since last
month. Additionally, the Indians continue to threaten our water lifeline
by illegal dam constructions. So the security threat from India remains
a reality on the ground, which cannot be wished away through the "people-to-people"
dramas. And until India is prepared to move substantively on the real issues
hindering peace and security, surely we should not be sanguine in terms
of our defences and threat perceptions. Let us remember that immediately
after Benazir's first swearing in as the prime minister, a hijacking incident
occurred. Now we have this incidence of the chopper intrusion, following
on the heels of the new prime minister's swearing in. Both clearly are
attempts to destabilise the country at a time of transition - a time when
we should be more alert than normal, given our historical experience with
India.
Tailpiece: Some good news for us.
Even as our foreign coaches have not brought in any sports victories, our
local lads and talent are doing well. Local coach, Rehmat Khan led our
squash players to a tremendous victory in the World Junior Team Squash
championship. I wonder how his salary ranks against that of the foreign
coaches' perks and privileges? Also, local tennis player, indigenous raised
and trained, Aqeel Khan is the unsung hero of the latest ITF Satellite
series being held in Pakistan these days. The son of the coach of Modern
Club, Karachi, he has yet to be given the laurels he justly deserves, but
which others have been given. The local talent is there. We need to acknowledge
and nurture it, instead of always looking overseas.
The views expressed by the writer
are her own
Shireen M Mazari, The writer is
Director General of the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad
