Author: Sandhya Jain
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: September 21, 2004
When the Muslim votebank frowns,
politicians get into a frenzy. Reacting with alacrity to Muslim ire
at Census revelations of the community's steep growth rate, the UPA
government reverted Commissioner J.K. Banthia to his parent cadre
for not consulting the Union Home Ministry before releasing data
on religious demography. Congress President Sonia Gandhi jumped into
the fray, promising an inquiry into so-called statistical errors,
and the message heard loud and clear across the country was that
there is be no public space for the legitimate concerns of the Hindu
community.
First reports gave the Muslim growth
rate as 36 percent in the decade 1991-2001. Later, adjustments factoring
in the absence of data from Jammu and Kashmir in the 1991 census
and from Assam in 1981, scaled this down to 29.3 percent, a decline
of 3.6 percent from 32.9 percent growth in the 1991 census. Questions
have legitimately been raised about the original and the "adjusted"
figures politically extracted from the Census Commission.
Certainly the "adjusted" figures
have a higher comfort value. They show that instead of the decadal
growth rate of Muslims increasing by 1.5 per cent in 2001, it actually
fell by 3.6 per cent. Yet these figures surely hide the true extent
of India's Muslim population, as both Jammu & Kashmir and Assam
are States with a high Muslim population. Hence, when the figures
for both States are added, we will have to admit having a much higher
total Muslim population in the country, and a higher percentage of
Muslims to the total population. This reality cannot be evaded.
Hindus have long had a latent fear
that the Muslim community will exterminate it from its homeland through
demographic aggression in the form of over-breeding and illegal immigration.
There is a secret dread, articulated by former Director General of
Police, Mr. R.K. Ohri (Long March of Islam, 2004), that Hindus
in India will meet the fate of the Christians in Lebanon and parts
of the Balkans, where sharp demographic changes over a span of a
few decades reduced the majority community to minority status. The
warning is not without merit. The population of indigenous religious
groups in the country has steadily fallen in percentage terms over
the past 110 years, from 1881 to 1991, and this trend has accelerated
after Partition. The present controversy over Islamic injunctions
against family planning has only added to Hindu discomfort.
The Census 2001 statistics have
attracted so much attention partly on account of the security and
economic implications of illicit immigration from Bangladesh, and
partly because the growth rate of most native religious groups has
stagnated or declined. The Muslim community scored poorly on development
indices such as literacy and employment, and virtually confined its
contribution to the national kitty to demographics. This has understandably
frightened the Hindu majority, especially since the Minister of State
for Home, Mr. Sriprakash Jaiswal, went so far as to demand a ban
on release of population figures of different religious groups. Some
politicians even foolishly asked the rationale behind collecting
such figures.
Actually, as Dr. J.K. Bajaj of the
Centre for Policy Research, Chennai, has pointed out, this is not
the first time that the Census has released data on the relative
population of different religious groups. Right from the first Census
of 1871, data regarding religious demography has been made public
and is in fact, the most keenly awaited census data. What is unique
about the 2001 figures is that this is the first time since Independence
that the Census has tabulated religious demography against socio-cultural
factors like literacy, age distribution, employment status, female
child ratio, and so on. This has enabled scholars to examine the
causes of the changing demographics of different religious communities.
As of now, it appears that the Muslim population in India is unlikely
to stabilize at normal replacement levels. From 10.43 percent in
1951, Muslims have risen to 13.43 percent in 2001.
It is relevant that even the "adjusted"
figures of 29.3 percent put the Muslim rate of growth well above
the national average, and also above that for other major communities
such as the Hindus (20.3 percent); Christians (22.6 percent) and
Sikhs (18.2 percent). It bears mentioning that the Hindu growth rate
in the previous decade declined by as much as five percentage points,
to 20.3 percent. Hence, the nine percent officially admitted lead
enjoyed by the Muslim community has understandably sent alarm bells
ringing across the nation.
Since independence, Hindus as a
community have been declining in percentage terms. In 1951, Hindus
comprised 85 percent of the population. By 1961 itself they had fallen
to 83.4 percent; they were 82.7 percent in 1971 and 80.5 percent
in 2001. In sharp contrast, the Muslim community stood at 9.7 percent
of partitioned India's population in 1951, but rose steadily to 10.7
percent in 1961, 11.2 percent in 1971 and 13.4 percent in 2001. The
missing censuses of Jammu & Kashmir (1991) and Assam (1981) hardly
detract from this trend.
The situation is especially alarming
when we look at particular States. In Kerala, Muslims comprised 17.9
percent of the population in 1961, but were a formidable 24.7 percent
by 2001. In Assam, Muslims comprised 25 percent of the population
in 1961, but were 30.9 percent in 2001. In West Bengal, Muslims rose
from 20 percent in 1961 to 25 percent in 2001. In Maharashtra, they
marched from 7.6 percent in 1961 to 10.6 percent in 2001. These increases
in percentage are unlikely to be reversed in the coming decade. Conversely,
the proportion of Hindus has declined in each state.
Muslims are now the majority or
near-majority community in the districts of Assam and West Bengal
that border Bangladesh, several key districts in eastern Bihar, western
Uttar Pradesh, and northern Kerala, and of course Kashmir. This rapidly
changing population profile of Assam, West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar
Pradesh is a matter of legitimate national concern. Today, with 30.7
million Muslims in a truncated Uttar Pradesh, 20.2 million in West
Bengal, 13.7 million in a truncated Bihar and 10.2 million in Maharashtra,
India is sitting on a demographic tinderbox.
In the eight decades from 1901 and
1991, Assam witnessed a steep fall in the percentage of native religions,
from 84.55 to 68.25 percent, while Muslim population nearly doubled
from 15.03 percent to 28.43 percent. Dhubir, Barpeta, Hailakundi
and Karimganj are reportedly Muslim majority districts. In West Bengal,
Muslims are the majority in Malda and Murshidabad, with West Dinapur
and Birbhum slated to follow. In Uttar Pradesh, Rampur, Bijnor, Moradabad,
Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar and Bareilly are close to becoming Muslim
majority districts. In Bihar, Muslims have overwhelmed Kishanganj
(65.91 percent), and dramatically increased their numbers and percentage
in Araria, Katihar, Sahibaganj, Darbhanga and Pashchimi Champaran.
The census must also be viewed in
the context of India's neighbourhood. In 1941, Hindus and Sikhs jointly
constituted 19 percent of present-day Pakistan, but fell to one percent
by 2001. In 1941, Hindus were 29 percent of present-day Bangladesh,
but declined to 18 percent in 1961, 14 percent in 1974, 12 percent
in 1981 and 10 percent in 1991. Dhaka's sustained ethnic cleansing
of the past few years can only have accelerated this trend. The conclusion
is inescapable: the region is being Islamized. This has obvious implications
for national identity and security.
