Author: Wilson John
Publication: The Pioneer
Date: November 9, 2004
Jammu & Kashmir will emerge
as one of the key areas of conflict and is likely to witness an increased
US interest during the second term of President George W Bush. The reasons
are not far to seek. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has been Mr Bush's
strong ally in the war against terror and will continue to be so. President
Bush's return to the White House, with a decisive majority in the current
election unlike the previous one, is an endorsement of his decision to
pursue, what his Administration has been claiming, a war against the global
network of terror.
What does this mean for Kashmir?
A quick recap of the last phase of President Bush's first term would indicate
a growing interest within the US Administration of taking a more pro-active
role in Kashmir. The ruse has been, as always, to aim for a conflict resolution
in the region. In all likelihood, this agenda will be higher on the priority
list of the new Bush Administration. Pakistan is likely to exploit this
situation to its advantage. President Musharraf's recent weather balloon
on resolving Kashmir is a clear indication. Although it seemed as if he
was thinking out of the box in trying to find a resolution to this vexed
problem, the real idea was to create a diversion and a public debate among
the intelligentsia which seems to be, quite often, swayed by momentary
delusions about the Pakistan Army's strategic ambitions in Kashmir.
The sudden deluge of comments on
both sides of the border and in the US, mostly giving the benefit of doubt
to the General, is a clear indication of the General's success. To offer
a different perspective, it might as well be interesting to note that there
was no opposition to the General's formula from the jihadi groups or religious
political organisations, which seems to be clamouring for the removal of
his Army uniform. This is intriguing given the fact that the General seemed
to be abandoning what Pakistan has been pursuing for over half a century.
In fact, the General was merely
finding breathing space, waiting till his benefactor President Bush got
re-elected. His gamble has paid off and he is, therefore, set for the next
course of action. He is going to turn the heat on Kashmir. There is going
to be a sudden spurt in terrorist violence across the State, including
assassination attempts, massacre of civilians and attacks on the security
forces. There are enough indications that terrorist training camps in POK
have been quite active in the past few months, busy recruiting and training.
Terrorist groups have been lying low but have been busy recouping and regrouping
for a fresh onslaught. This is a fact which the world refuses to acknowledge.
President Musharraf, despite his support of war on terrorism, has kept
alive the terrorist infrastructure.
A few facts about terrorism in,
and by, Pakistan need to be clarified and emphasised. First, various terrorist
and religious groups have come together in different combinations and hence
are difficult to detect and destroy. Second, Al Qaeda has not only infiltrated
these groups but also been using the infrastructure set up by these groups,
like madarsas and mosques, to regroup after the bombing of Afghanistan
in late 2001. Finally, many of the terrorist groups have been broken up
by Pakistan's intelligence agencies under pressure from the US.
However, the last point needs closer
examination. Two of the most infamous terrorist groups, Jaish-e-Mohammad
and Lashkar-e-Toiba, have splintered in the past three years. Both are
banned by the US. It might seem a great victory for the war against terror.
But in reality, the groups, by splintering, have only multiplied. Today,
instead of one LeT, there are two splinter groups with similar objectives.
Such mutations help terrorist groups to escape sanctions and operate below
the radar level. To extend the argument, in relation to the LeT, the splinter
groups have been consolidating their recruitment, funding and training
during the past one year.
More interesting is the case of
United Jihad Council led by Syed Salahuddin, a Kashmiri terrorist who has
been in operation for more than a decade without being either imprisoned
or restricted by sanctions. Salahuddin is one of the lynchpins in Pakistan's
Kashmir policy. He is the terror tap that General Musharraf once mentioned.
Unlike Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad, United Jihad Council is fully
controlled and managed by the Pakistan Army. Salahuddin's Jihad Council,
unlike Lashkar which claims to draw its sustenance from a particular Islamic
school of thought based in Deoband, is purely a terror machine.
Though Salahuddin has no religious
affiliations, he is closely associated with religious parties like the
Jamaat-e-Islami. He has no known sources of funding. There have never been
reports of Salahuddin asking for donations, but he has been operating unhindered
for the last several years, both in Pakistan and Srinagar. Nor does he
have any known links with Lashkar or Jaish, except sharing the cause of
spreading terror in Kashmir. This well-thought out policy of keeping a
low profile has enabled Salahuddin to remain off the radar of international
scrutiny till date. The Bush Administration has not factored in his terrorist
group in the war against Terror, and neither has the Indian establishment
while pursuing peace in Kashmir.
A cursory analysis of some of the
terrorist incidents this year clearly show the tactics the terrorist groups
might employ in the days to come. The attacks will follow three clear patterns.
First is the suicide attacks on security forces, particularly the para-military
forces like the CRPF and the BSF. Four such incidents have already taken
place this year on May 23, July 8, August 4 and November 4. Second is high-profile
assassinations. The attempts on the lives of an MP, the Deputy Chief Minister
of Jammu and Kashmir and the chief of National Conference, Omar Abdullah,
clearly points towards this strategy. And the last is the massacre like
the one carried out on May 23, in which 30 persons were killed.
There are reasons why the terrorist
groups are targeting para-military forces and not the Army. In the past,
the Army, a target of several assassination attempts, had responded quite
strongly to such attacks by launching intensive counter-insurgency operations.
Para-military forces, on the other hand, have limited mandate and fewer
resources to take counter-insurgency measures. Policy makers need to address
this issue urgently and not let terrorist groups take advantage of this
flaw in the security matrix.
There are also indications that
infiltration from Pakistan has increased recently. In the first six days
of November alone, the Army foiled four major infiltration attempts from
across the LoC in which 11 militants, mostly Pakistani nationals, were
killed. According to the Union Ministry of Home Annual Report 2004, Pakistan
was reviving launching detachments, which were earlier closed and as many
as 47 terrorists training camps have been established in POK, 26 in Pakistan
and 10 in the Northern Areas. The report said as many as 13,000 messages
were being passed on to terrorists every month through the 32 control stations
clustered in six locations in POK and one in Pakistan. These developments
are clearly indicative of Pakistan's strategy to keep Kashmir on the global
agenda and help the US gain a foothold in the region.
