Author: Kanchan Gupta
Publication: IANS
Date: March 31, 2005
The fallout of three recent events,
played out of Washington, is likely to coalesce into a dramatic shift in
the BJP's attitude towards the USA, especially the Bush Administration.
The US State Department's stated
official position is that its decision to keep Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra
Modi out of America is individual specific and not directed against the
BJP per se.
But the move is being widely viewed
in the party as being dictated by Washington's eagerness to score brownie
points with Muslims at large and Christian evangelists at home by pillorying
"Hindu nationalists".
The forced cancellation of Modi's
visit to London because of credible information about a "specific threat
to his life" from Islamists active in the UK has further riled hardliners
in the BJP and the RSS. They see it as the British Government succumbing
to Muslim demands and the UPA Government doing little to force the issue.
What has added to the BJP's discomfiture
is the RSS' pointing out that the NDA Government's perceived pro-US tilt
in foreign affairs and economic policies has not fetched any political
benefits.
On the contrary, at the first available
opportunity, the Americans have blackballed a high profile BJP leader,
signalling that they set little store by the Vajpayee Government's record
of improving Indo-American bilateral relations by leaps and bounds.
Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari
Vajpayee's criticism of the US decision to keep Modi out reflects the current
mood in the BJP. Unwittingly, perhaps, the US State Department has fetched
Modi support from Vajpayee who had blamed the Gujarat riots for the NDA's
electoral debacle in 2004.
Close on the heels of the US declaring
Modi persona non grata came the Bush Administration's decision to supply
F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan. As the main opposition party with a nationalist
agenda, the BJP is loath to pass up this opportunity to identify itself
with popular disquiet over what is being seen as "American perfidy".
So much so, the BJP fielded its
former Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh, who is credited with fashioning
New Delhi's strategic dialogue with Washington, to raise uncomfortable
questions over the F-16 issue. Singh went a step further, scoffing at suggestions
of toeing a pro-American line while in office.
The third irritant has come in the
form of the US State Department's report, 'Supporting Human Rights and
Democracy: The U.S. Record 2004 - 2005', released last Monday.
The report is being seen as painting
the BJP-led NDA Government in bleak colours while heaping praise on the
Congress-led UPA Government. US criticism in this report is not limited
to Narendra Modi, but the BJP per se has been slammed.
All this has taken the spotlight
away from Modi and made it into a political issue for the BJP that the
leadership may find useful to exploit to the party's advantage. It is already
being put out that the real reason behind the State Department's criticism
is the BJP's refusal to cave in to the pressure tactics of the US Administration.
Interestingly enough, Strobe Talbotts's
book 'Engaging India' is being cited to prove this point. Singh referred
to it repeatedly on Tuesday as evidence of the firmness with which he dealt
with US officials during his tenure as Foreign Minister.
Implicit in this distancing is the
suggestion that the Congress-led UPA Government is taking a softer line
in its dealings with the USA. Latent anti-Americanism continues to be a
potent weapon of mass mobilisation, especially among deprived sections
in both urban and rural India. The BJP realises this.
It is, therefore, entirely possible
that the BJP leadership will be forced to rethink its attitude towards
the US. The sly reference by US officials to Indians in the queue for an
American visa is unlikely to prevent a rethink.
If the BJP were to become belligerent
and adopt an anti-American attitude, it would definitely mean a major roadblock
in Indo-US relations.
For starters, any dialogue between
the UPA and the Bush Administration will be subjected to merciless scrutiny
and possibly harsh criticism. Sharp partisan divisions will make progress
on strategic issues impossible.
Ironically, this may help send across
the message that India is no pushover. Had Washington thought otherwise,
it would not have ignored the Government of India's demarche, requesting
a rethink on denying a visa to Modi.
New Delhi may believe that it has
emerged as a key player in international affairs and its clout has increased
in direct proportion to its increasing economic might. But such faith is
misplaced, as has been demonstrated thrice over this past fortnight.
Meanwhile, notwithstanding problems
of dissent and discontent within the Gujarat unit of the BJP, generated
in large measure by his working style, and his aborted visits to the USA
and the UK - which Delhi's English-speaking chattering classes see as an
"embarrassment" - Modi may end up stronger than before, with both BJP leaders
and party rank-and-file backing him.
